FK Haugesund – Sandefjord 29-09-2025

The Eliteserien on a Monday night. There's something beautiful about it. You could argue that the weakest Eliteserien team in history against a Sandefjord team with nothing to play for isn't the most appealing thing there is, but light drizzle drifting past the floodlights in the autumn darkness has its charm. I'm looking forward to it, anyway. And I think we can also make some money on the game.

Fk Haugesund – time to look forward

Even though it has long been over in practice, there has always been something that has kept the interest up. At first, no one dared to conclude until the relegation was mathematically proven. It probably hasn't been yet, but no one believes it can happen anymore. And then there were all these cups. Yes, we only have one cup in Norway, but I have the feeling that we play cup matches all the time. But after the dramatic sortie last Wednesday, there is nothing more to look forward to. Now OBOS is the next stop for this slow-moving locomotive.

In the last week we have seen Fk Haugesund in good and bad. The performance against RBK in the series was one of the worst we have seen this year. But then, just a few days later, they lead 1-0 until well into overtime. Now it was a loss, but they showed us that they can. And even more importantly; they showed each other that they can. And I am completely convinced that Korkeakunnas is now fielding the players he plans to use next year. And that team can actually give opponents a fight, on a good day.

Because after Hamalainen came in at left back and they got a much-needed creator in Hannola, things have looked better. Not great, but better. And we already know that Claus Niyukuri is one of the country's best defenders, and we see young players like Fauskanger, Dia, Fischer, Grindhaug, Nyhammer and Hope taking steps with each passing week.

And perhaps now is the time to start working on the next season. Now there are no more highlights left. Now the autumn darkness is falling, now relegation is a fact and now the fight for places in the great rebuilding project begins. Those who want to be part of it must show themselves now.

Sandefjord – a team in no man's land

The team that refused to lose at home was also the team that never won away from home. But now that they are 0-0-3 at home, they should be happy they have the points they have already earned. Otherwise, this season could have ended in the worst possible way for Andreas Tegström and Sandefjord. Instead, he was rewarded this week with a new contract.  

But the fact is that Fk Haugesund has taken four times as many points as Sandefjord in the last five games. The gang from the whaling town has collected one point out of the last 18 possible points, and is thus 0-1-5 in the last six. It is so weak that it sends them to the bottom of the form table. And with enough points to stay, and too few points to register at the top, I struggle to see them coming to Haugesund and taking the points with them without a game.

The poor form is one thing, but the club has also received criticism following the team's withdrawal from the cup match against Tromsdalen. The 6-1 there did not do any good, and when they also have to manage without Sander Risan Mørk, who has been responsible for two goals and three assists this year, it is a club in fairly poor condition that heads west on Monday.

Conclusion – Disagreement on the odds setting

Don't get me wrong; I'm not saying that Sandefjord are favorites here. But a team that is so out of shape is, in my eyes, made too big favorites in this match. But clearly; we don't know how the painful cup loss will affect Haugesund. They played well, and they hung in well, and that can have positive ripple effects. But such a loss can also lead to resignation.

But odds of 5.60 give us a lot of options. And let's look at some of them;

• Is it possible that some of the points will remain in Haugesund?

I don't think it's unthinkable. And if you land on 1X, you'll be rewarded with 2.54 odds. That's value. But again; the season as a whole, Sandefjord has almost five times as many points as Haugesund, and you should respect that. And that's exactly why you can look at +1 Asian handicap to 1.96 or +1.5 to 1.61. If you're considering larger bets, it's perhaps most sustainable to look in the direction of the latter two.

• Corner odds are always in proportion to marking odds. Fortunately.

Because when we think the odds are odd, we experience that this is also reflected in other markets. Such as the corner odds. Because even though Fk Haugesund has only produced 3.36 corners on average, we must remember that Sandefjord are severely out of form. And on the away field they have given away 5.70 corners on average. Then it feels good to get 1.60 on over 3.5 to the home team. Possibly over 4.5 to 2.18?

• Should we look towards goals?

Yes, of course. You can. But in my opinion, there is little value to be gained from the obvious bets. 2.5 goals gives too little, and 1.5 goals to Sandefjord gives too little. In fact, they give surprisingly little, given Sandefjord's poor form. That's not to say that they won't go in, but 1.46 odds on 1.5 goals to the away team are pretty silly when they have only managed 10 goals in 10 away games. In that case, I would rather look in the direction of the home team. Over 1 goal gives 1.96, and over 1.5 gives a whopping 2.95. They managed it against both Sarpsborg, Fredrikstad and Vålerenga, so why not Sandefjord?

It's not easy to land on something when there are so many tempting options, but in situations like these it's best to choose what feels safest. And that's why I land on the following games;

Norway at 19:00: Fk Haugesund – Sandefjord: Fk Haugesund +1.5 goals (1.62)

Alternative game;

Norway at 19:00: Fk Haugesund – Sandefjord: Over 3.5 corners to FKH (1.60)

Norway at 19:00: Fk Haugesund – Sandefjord: 1X (2.54)

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