FK Haugesund – YMCA Oslo

At the risk of repeating myself; the misery will never end for Fk Haugesund. But our task is to delve deeper to find games that provide value, and there is evidence that it should be possible to make money at Haugesund, regardless of the state they are in.

FK Haugesund – now or never.

You could be accused of being crazy when you delve into the weakest Eliteserie team in history, hoping to find something positive. But I have taken on that task anyway. And even though the points tally counts 1 point in four games under the new coach, we have seen a clear change in playing style under Toni Korkeakunnas.

But although everything is naturally not rosy in a club that is on fire, further complications have arisen in the past week. First, the experienced left-back, Oscar Krusnell, chose to decline to play in the match. The reason is uncertain, but it is speculated that he is on his way to Elfsborg. And as if that were not enough, Solheim had to go out with an injury in the match against Sarpsborg 08. Too bad, because his substitution against Kristiansund was very positive. And last but not least; Bizoza has also been injured. He has played a lot this year, but is not initially a regular in the team. But he gives Haugesund depth both at the back and in midfield, in addition to enormous energy and enthusiasm when he plays.

In addition, the interview Konradsen did with the local press recently has received reactions. He was quite clear that all the changes that are made from week to week are disruptive. And we can understand him. But we should also remember that Toni Korkeakunnas's strength is not to have a style of his own, but rather to adapt his team to the opponent. And therefore it was decided that everything would go through the middle against Kristiansund, and the team therefore played without typical wingers. Konradsen was not happy with this.

But the team's lineup has also varied greatly. Three different goalkeepers have played in the four games Toni has been coach. And both the defenders and the wingers have rotated a lot. And lately, the forward position has also become a position where Sory and Seone share playing time.

So which team we will see this time is not good to know. If Krusnell is still out, the youngster Bondus will have to move in at left back. Exciting player, but he is probably not ready for the Eliteserien quite yet. But at the opposite back, Haugesund is strengthened by the fact that Solheim has to be out, now that Claus Niyukuri is back from injury. He is absolutely central to the football Korkeakunnas wants to play, and few players in the Eliteserien can match the physique and speed of the exciting right back.

But it remains to be seen whether Julius Eskesen will be ready. The inside runner is a smart player who is one of the league's best pressure players, and without him, Fk Haugesund's midfield is significantly weakened. He, in addition to Leite and Konradsen, have been the pillars so far this year, and the loss of these three would be dramatic. The alternative is to move Troy Nyhammer in as the left inside runner. That would give the home team more creativity, but far less aggressiveness in the midfield.

YMCA Oslo – can they live with one point?

The period Fk Haugesund is in now was announced to be season-defining. Eight games in a row against teams where they should have a chance to take points. But after only 1 point against Kristiansund and Sarpsborg, things are starting to get urgent. And that's exactly why there is only one thing that is good enough for the weekend; three points.

And with 5 points in six away games, and more importantly; five goals in these six away games, the home team should have hope of getting something. The win against Molde was impressive, but they are only 1-2-3 away so far this year. In addition, they lost away to LSK in the cup. But on the other hand, this is the game KFUM Oslo must win if they are to secure a renewed contract. Or is it the game they cannot afford to lose?

Because with Fk Haugesund and Strømsgodset all but lost, it's the fight to avoid qualification that matters. And they'll probably avoid it if they average 1 point per away game. But against a Haugesund team that has to advance, players like Okeke and Nunez will probably take their chances when they come. Because they will come. And the table position is very important here. Because 14th place is all Fk Haugesund can hope for. The last straw they're clinging to. And at the time of writing, it's KFUM Oslo that holds this place. That means that a loss here will send the home team 13 points behind the place that gives qualification. In other words; game over.

But again; Fk Haugesund should go into this match believing that points are possible. KFUM is the team that finishes the fewest times of all teams, with 9.25 per match. But surprisingly, they are the team that allows the fewest shots on goal of all teams in the Eliteserien. And only Viking denies the opponent fewer finishes. Strong, given where they are in the table.

Conclusion – everyone to the pumps

There is a lot to take into account here. The condition of the home team, the table position of both teams, as well as the tendencies that are not reflected in the results. For example, that Fk Haugesund had two 100% chances against Sarpsborg that they wasted, in addition to being alone with the goalkeeper against Sandefjord. Incompetence, but also a bit unlucky. Because against Sarpsborg they were very close to playing through with four against two, but the last pass was a mis-pass. Again; as much incompetence as bad luck.

Because under Korkeakunnas, Fk Haugesund has become much more direct in their playing style. We can see this, among other things, in the corner statistics. For the season as a whole, Fk Haugesund has created 3.62 corners per game, while in the four games Korkeakunnas has led the team, the average is 4.25. And that includes a tough game against Bodø/Glimt. And in a game where only 3 points are good enough, against a team that allows the fewest shots on goal of all the teams, they have to think alternatively. And we know that KFUM Oslo gives away 4.83 corners on average. More than enough for us.

But some form of marking is also tempting. Especially considering what is at stake. But in the previous match, Fk Haugesund defended in a kind of 4-4-2, and it was clear that they did not keep up with the movements. They never had time to shift quickly enough, and there were many crosses. And I am a little afraid that KFUM Oslo knows what we know, and is taking full advantage of this.

But the fact is that Fk Haugesund, despite all too easy ball losses in the middle of the field, have actually looked better lately. They are direct, they must have points, they are at home and the opposition is manageable. Therefore, we launch the following two bets;

Norway at 17:00: Fk Haugesund – KFUM Oslo: Over 3.5 corners to Fk Haugesund (1.71)

Alternative game:

Norway at 17:00: Fk Haugesund – KFUM Oslo: 1X (1.87)

Norway at 17:00: Fk Haugesund – KFUM Oslo: Under 2.5 goals (1.90)

Ps. The day after the analysis was published, the corner bet dropped to 1.58 in odds. Sorry. But I hope the analysis has still been useful.