Fire – Tromsø 06-04-2025

Bergen is ready for football again, and Brann hosts Tromsø this Sunday afternoon. Disappointment has settled in Bergen after Brann's defeat in the first round against Fredrikstad. Will they be able to recover today, or will there be massive pressure on Brann, especially coach Frey? I think we will see a completely different Brann team, and I will explain why I think they will win and why they will score more goals.

Fire – Has the hour of revenge come?

There are very few cities that are as enthusiastic about their own city and everything that has to do with it as the people of Bergen. They are proud and excited about everything that happens in Bergen. The new coach Frey has promised the people of Bergen gold within the next three years, and the coaching team made a 30-minute video interview about what tactics they should use to win this gold. In addition, Frey stated after the dress rehearsal that they had benefited from one defeat before the series began. I think they got that, and their pride took a real hit in Fredrikstad last round. Now Brann must deliver on their home turf, otherwise there will be completely black clouds surrounding the city that expects a lot!

After a very good warm-up where they were undefeated (only one draw in 7 games) with a goal difference of 18-9, there were many Bergeners who were very high up. It is quite fascinating to see a team that has a full 72% ball possession and create as little (read: nothing) as Brann did. Brann was simply taken aback by how Fredrikstad showed up, and counterattacked Brann in slow motion and shut down the game so that Brann never got to start their own game. Brann was pressured very high, struggled to find the rhythm and never managed to create any significant attacks. It was clear that they had not prepared for the tactics they encountered in the plank city.

After the disappointing match in the first round, I think it will be a team that is very eager for revenge and wants to make amends after the first match. Frey has to reset the guys, get them up 3-4 notches both physically and mentally. Now they will play in front of a packed Brann Stadium, and it will probably be a match where Brann will take command and control most of the match, as they have done earlier this spring. Anything other than 3 points will be a gigantic letdown.

Since we are still early in the season, it is difficult to say anything about this year's statistics, but we can take a look at last year's statistics. Brann at home had a 9-3-3 record and a goal difference of 26-14, which gives an average of 1.73 Brann goals and 2.67 match goals in total. They produced 8.07 corners at home and conceded 3.80 on average.

From what I can find, Brann doesn't have any special injuries to take into account.

Tromsø – Will it help with one coach?

Tromsø narrowly escaped and secured their place in the 2024 Eliteserien with a better goal difference than Haugesund. From the 2024 to the 2025 season, Tromsø has gone from two equal head coaches to one head coach. The squad is young, but at the same time they have experienced players in the stable, so this could be an exciting team to follow. Tromsø was tipped for mid-table before the season, and many believe they can surprise positively. Tromsø has been active in the transfer market and lost more or less half of the squad. From the 2024 season, they have got rid of 15 players, while at the same time they have brought in 10 players to the squad.

Tromsø's pre-season has been good with 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses with a goal difference of 15-9. They continued their good run in the first round when Tromsø hosted relegated Haugesund. Tromsø played a good game and was significantly better than Haugesund, dominating large parts of the game, especially in the second half. Tromsø eventually won 1-0 after a penalty kick. Tromsø created several big chances, but struggled to find the back of the net. With 52% possession and an xG of 2.31, the result should have been better for the Tromsø team.

If we look at last year's away statistics, Tromsø played 4-2-9 and had a goal difference of 10-23, which gives a goal average of 0.67 and a match average of 2.20. Tromsø produced 3.73 corners away and 6.27 against.

Tromsø has no special damages to report at the moment.

Conclusion – Goal celebration in Bergen

It is always difficult to play the first rounds of the series, and many people probably wait until the league has "settled down". With Brann getting a nose-stealer in the first round, I think the team is very ready for revenge, especially in front of their own home crowd. Tromsø struggled to get the ball in the goal at home against Haugesund and eventually had to get help in the form of a penalty. It will not be any easier in Bergen for the Tromsø team, as they will face a Brann team that is hell-bent on revenge. I think we will see a completely new Brann team, more like we saw in the pre-season, and I think they will refute their poor first game.

I have great faith that Brann will win this one, and at 1.65 it is well paid. I wouldn't be surprised if we see Brann win by more goals. Brann -1.5 to 2.67 I think is an exciting and a little riskier. I think Brann will control this match and feed on the attack, so a corner play to Brann could also be an exciting choice, over 6.5 corners to Brann at a nice 1.98.

Because of their motivation and desire for revenge, I choose to go for Brann goals as today's bet. I would think Brann will win, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see total dominance with multiple goals.

Eliteserien at 14:30: Brann – Tromsø: Brann over 1.5 goals (1.69)