Everton - Manchester City 19-04-25

Motivation. That's what matters before the final efforts of the season. The fear of relegation can make teams move mountains, while the smell of heaven can both give extra strength and, at the same time, it can make the most experienced of us tense up. This carrot dangling in front of us humans is often what we need to be able to extract that little extra, and transferred to the world of football, we oddsmakers like to look for where the carrot is biggest. One of the biggest things for English football teams is the dream of the Champions League. Here lies fame, and here lies the money. For a team like Manchester City, this is an absolute minimum goal. The season has been a huge disappointment by their standards, and now it is precisely the dream of Europe's most prestigious tournament that can save the day. However, the competition is fierce, and at the time of writing it is not certain who will join Liverpool and Arsenal down the continent in the autumn. Manchester City should be one of these teams, something they are of course painfully aware of.

 

Everton, on the other hand, are not relegated this year either. They got a turn in the season at the end, and have solid ground under their feet. The form says many draws and few goals. But what about this motivation? It is difficult to see what makes the blues from Liverpool take the extra run home in the last rounds, and perhaps that is precisely something we can exploit to our advantage in this match. We try with an odds tip based on form and the European carrot.

 

Everton – Hardworking and tough to break

 

With Everton you usually know exactly what you're getting. It's a duel, something Tarkowski is a good example of. It's fought all over the pitch, as Doucoure usually does, and they're difficult to score on, often thanks to Pickford. But then you also have players like Ndiaye. Or, it must be said, it's primarily him. Ndiaye is kind of the difference, the player who breaks a little with the Everton gene, and who can make the decisive offensive on the pitch. Together with Beto, and now and then, Harrison, Everton occasionally offer some nice football. But it comes sporadically. The season as a whole has shown that these magical moments have become few and far between, and it's more typical for Everton to wall themselves back and hope for the best. It almost worked against Liverpool recently, before there was an honorable draw against Arsenal, and most recently a win away against Nottingham. Actually, both were really strong. Surprisingly, Everton were superb against this year's surprise team, Nottingham, throughout all aspects of the match. Higher ball possession, higher xG, more corners, yes, basically everything spoke in favor of the guests from Liverpool. Something atypical, but also some evidence of hope ahead of next season.

 

The problem for Everton, however, is that it all too rarely results in three points. In the last ten games we find two wins, and a whole bunch of draws. It's a bit like that with Moyes' men, they are on the even keel, without blowing anyone off the track. The challenges this weekend are that they face Manchester City, and that is not the recipe for new points in the bank. The last ten against the light blues have resulted in eight losses and two points ties. If Moyes gets rid of Pep on Saturday it will be a big peel, even this season where there has been more flat pint than sparkling Sangria in the light blue part of Manchester.

 

Manchester City – With one goal in mind

 

If Manchester City is not turned on the offensive side, they will end up outside the Champions League in the autumn. It is of course possible that it will happen anyway, as we are waiting for a verdict after the countless rule violations from that side. But, courtrooms aside, in purely football terms this could be a draw. Liverpool and Arsenal will take two of the five places, while Nottingham, Newcastle, City, Chelsea and Villa will settle for the last three. As of now, there is little difference, and it is not at all unthinkable that Pep and Erling will have to play their European matches on Thursdays when the autumn leaves fall. In that case, it will be a gigantic setback, and if the train does not derail because of something like that, then at least there is a massive pine tree across the train tracks. The train driver with the shiny ice must deliver his best in the last matches of the season.

 

And this is exactly what we saw against Crystal Palace last time. At first it looked pitch black with two in the bag, before the reigning champions decided to play football. Five goals were scored, and a solid victory against one of the Premier League's form teams. Suddenly City looked like themselves again. There were quick transitions, constant runs in the box, and a sustained pressure that blew the shirts off the guests from London. In addition, both Bobb and Doku were on the bench, so even if Haaland is out, there are alternatives. Marmoush has proven to be a very capable back up, and this City team certainly has more to go on. We really expect to see another performance in the same style when they now face Everton, an opponent they have an overwhelming hold on.

 

City's problem this season has been injuries. Injuries and perhaps a form of satiety. It's clear that everyone would miss Rodri, but now they also have Haaland, Ake, Akanji, Foden and Stones out. That's pretty much the entire central line. Pep has always been a cheat when it comes to who is available or not, so we'll just have to wait and see if any of these are ready to play. Rodri and Haaland are definitely out.

 

Conclusion – Is the carrot big enough?

 

Is it enough for Manchester City to fight for third place in the league? Is it enough to know that such a position provides floodlights and the beautiful anthem for next season? (Given that the announcer manages to put on the right song before kick-off) This is not what the light blues want to fight for towards the end of the season. What does push us in the direction of another three points for Pep is the match against Palace. City can still do it, and Everton tends to be a relatively good exchange. The season is a bit strange in many ways, so drawing completely solid conclusions is difficult, but in my opinion there are several things that indicate that the away team will take this one. The weight in the squad is one thing, the skill level of key players is another, and last but not least, the motivation to take the extra run should be greatest with the guests.

 

With the overwhelming head-to-head statistics behind us, City's goals in the last six games, and a more or less finished Everton, we land on a decent away win. It's not often you get such attractive odds on an ordinary selection when it comes to Pep's boys, so here we know our visiting time, and strike.

 

England at 16:00: Everton – Manchester City: Away win (1.92)

Alternative game

England at 16:00: Everton - Manchester City: Over 1.5 goals to Manchester City (1.87)