Everton - Liverpool 12-02-2025

The match at Goodison was originally scheduled for early December, but England and a thin layer of snow don't mix well, so the Liverpool derby will kick off on Wednesday. What makes it extra special is that this will be the last time the two city rivals meet at Goodison Park. Everton are moving, and a 113-year history of rivalry at the venerable stadium is coming to an end. The stands will rock when Everton are in the mix, and on Wednesday night, under the floodlights for the last time, yes, that's when the old structure will really be put to the test. Because forget who's leading the Premier League, forget who's fighting at the top, and forget who's fighting at the bottom, this will be an hour and a half between blue and red, where the prize is bragging rights over Liverpool city for the next few weeks.

The friendly derby has been referred to as such for years, but if it is friendly in the stands and in the cityscape in general, we expect something completely different on the pitch. Here there is much more at stake than three points, and if you claim Everton does not have the world to play for you are wrong. Here there is pride, a final farewell to a pillar of English football, and the joy of being able to put spokes in the wheels of big brother. Liverpool stroll through the park with one goal in mind; Three points, and a solid gap at the top of the table.

Everton

Suddenly things are looking a little brighter for the blues from Liverpool. Three straight wins in the Premier League, and up on the backs of Tottenham and Manchester United. In a normal season, that sentence would have testified to a high-flying Everton, but the reality is that this is now the bottom half. The season as a whole is another disappointment, and the challenges have again been many. Injuries are one thing. Calvert-Lewin is injured, and once again Everton is without its preferred striker in the local derby. The injury-plagued striker is more on the physio bench than he is on the pitch, and it will in all likelihood be Beto who leads the way up front.

Everton scores too few goals. This has actually been the status quo for a long time now, and as of today, only Ipswich and Southampton find their way to the net less often. The club is saved by a solid defensive anchoring, and you have to go far up the table to find teams that are closer at the back. The total does its part to keep Everton in the top flight, but unfortunately there is not much more to celebrate than that.

The reason to celebrate could come on Wednesday. It is the last time Everton will host Liverpool at Goodison Park, and the nearly 40,000 crowd will throw a party like no other. The games against Liverpool are marked early in the calendar, and when you wave goodbye to your old home ground you want to leave the pitch with a bang. With eight goals in your last three league games, Everton are in their best form of the season. The timing couldn't be better.

Liverpool

Liverpool have danced their way through the season. The banana peel in this sense came against Plymouth in the FA Cup, but this one in a way chose Slot away. Yes, you lose the chance to win a venerable cup, but it will also create a little long-awaited air in an otherwise packed calendar. Liverpool is fighting on three fronts, and the league in particular is hanging high. You can't hide from the fact that this has become the season where you will once again lift the trophy, and with a chasing Arsenal close on your heels, almost every match must be won, including the bidding city against Everton.

Most things are clicking for Arne Slot. Tottenham were regularly played around at Anfield recently, and Liverpool are in the final of the Carabao Cup. The Champions League ended with a victory in the regular season, and in the domestic league they are at the top. Injuries have been few, and relationships have built solidly as the season has unfolded. Van Dijk has hardly played better, Konate has become a class stopper, the midfield is harmonious, and Salah seems to have found the fountain of youth. Play on with brilliant development in Gakpo, Gravenberch and Szoboszlai, and you have dynamite in a red shirt.

Liverpool have a goal difference of 56-21 so far this season. Best both forward and backward. In addition to this, there are only question marks around Trent ahead of Wednesday's game in terms of injuries. The question is, how much can we read from all this? The numbers, injuries, table and players indicate a clean away win. But then there is Goodison Park, for the last time, against an Everton in good form. It is probably not as straightforward as the statistics suggest, and the question is whether we should take a step back and open up for this to be an even battle, where effort and count count as much as previous xG and table position.

Conclusion

Liverpool must continue to win games if they are to win the league. When this game is over, they will be six, seven or nine points ahead of Arsenal. Nine points give more peace of mind than six points. Everton have three in a row in the bank, and want to make it four against the Goliath in the city. The last time they run out onto the Goodison mat to face their rivals. The specter of relegation is at a reasonable distance, but it is clear that the points count for the home team too.

We predict a close game, there will be tackles, yellow cards, and probably also the occasional injury. The fact that this match is called the friendly bid city in the vernacular mainly comes from the fact that both reds and blues sit around the same dinner table, and that people go to the match in a group. On the grass, things tend to be a little harder. We think the match will swing, even if Liverpool will have most of the ball. After eight goals in the last three in the league, and that Everton actually won this match 2-0 last year, we think the home team will plant a bullet behind Liverpool's last defense. Whether it will be enough for the blues to score remains to be seen, because we feel confident that the reds will get on the board too. Goals for both teams are therefore the main bet, but take a look at both cards and corners before kick-off. If we were to go for marking, it would be a red victory, perhaps even with at least two goals in total in the match.

PS. Viaplay is running a 113-minute pre-roll for the match on Wednesday. 113 minutes for the number of years of Liverpool derby at Goodison.

England at 20:30: Everton - Liverpool: Both teams score (1.85)

 

Alternative game

England at 20:30: Everton – Liverpool: Away win + over 1.5 goals in the match (1.70)