Everton - Aston Villa 13-09 2025

Perhaps not the match you would initially look forward to the most, but the state of affairs makes this a particularly interesting affair.
There is no fierce rivalry or momentum behind this match - but most of the conditions are in place for an intense match at Hill Dickinson Stadium.

Aston Villa are in early points trouble after a slow start to the season, while Everton have really come to life after a tame opening match against newly promoted Leeds. Will we see a Villa closer to last year's form, or will the Moyes train continue for Everton? One thing is for sure; Aston Villa are coming to win – and with that in mind I think it could be an open match.

Everton – Led by a revitalized Jack Grealish

It just didn't look good in the opening game against Leeds, and my thoughts quickly wandered back to the chaotic 24/25 season. Relegation battle under Sean Dyche, points deduction, Moyes back – and a rather expected 13th place finish.

But then it was time for the first game at the new stadium, and the Jack Grealish we got to know at Aston Villa. A rock-solid 2-0 win against Brighton, followed by a strong away win against Wolves. Five goals, four assists from Grealish. Should he offer two more assists against Villa, he will do something no one has managed before in Premier League history – two assists (or more) in three consecutive games.

But what does Moyes do? Will we see a cautious approach and perhaps a desire mainly not to lose? Or will he dare to try to exploit the momentum and drive for victory? I think it will be a typical middle ground, and quite similar to what we have seen Everton in recent games. There will be a new dimension with Grealish in the team, a greater ability to keep the ball in the team offensively – and a little more variation in how it is attacked; a little less direct and a little less counter-based. A slightly spiced Moyes football. The defense is as always relatively solid, with an emphasis on relative.

Branthwaite is still out, and fresh on the injury list is Mykolenko – listed as uncertain for the match, so it's not given too much importance from here.

Aston Villa – This goal drought can't last forever, can it?

An almost disastrous start to the season. One point in three games, zero (!) goals scored – it doesn't smell scorched by Aston Villa so far, it smells burnt. Unai Emery is fumbling a bit in the dark, and as expected there were some panic signings on the eve of the transfer window.

Victor Lindelöf (free transfer), Jadon Sancho (loan) and Harvey Elliott (loan) are all players who can come in and make a difference for a Villa in desperation, and I think they are three smart transfers – in a way. Lindelöf is an okay center-back who is usable in several positions, but with perhaps more shortcomings than strengths, and I doubt he is intended for much more than rotation. But a very nice "squad player". Sancho can do great things in a locked game, but considering the baggage that comes with it, he is probably the signing that stinks of desperation the most. Harvey Elliott, on the other hand, I think is a great signing, who can add both football intelligence and x-factor. Usable in almost all offensive positions.

But it's not all black; apart from the Newcastle game (where they played the last 30 minutes with one man less), they have delivered 1.19 and 1.14 xG against Brentford and Palace respectively – the goals will come. Emery has not lost his dressing room, nor has he lost his skills as a manager and tactician.

Kamara and Onana are still out, while Matty Cash is uncertain after the international break – not very good news if he is not ready, all the while Emery prefers one wide player on each side led by the full-backs, and with the back-up García out with injury, there will probably be some form of rotation.

Conclusion:

Villa creates chances and xG, but does not score goals. Everton is riding the Grealish wave and delivers offensively, but is not more than reasonably safe at the back – led by the love-it-or-hate-it figure Pickford. I consider the likelihood of Villa going through their first four PL games without a single net touch to be vanishingly small.

I think we will see more of Emery's high line here, more aggression and I think the focus on overcrowding the midfield and pressing players into Everton's box will pay off here. At the same time, we will most likely see a weakness at HB at Villa with no natural alternatives (given that Matty Cash is not fit) - which should fit like a glove for a revitalised Jack Grealish. I would also not be surprised if we see Harvey Elliott starting, perhaps as a narrow inside winger on the right - and as mentioned earlier I think it could end up being a very good loan deal.

I'm absolutely certain that Villa will score goals, and I'm pretty sure that Moyes' Boys will do the same - even with a small drop in the odds, it's played:

Premier League 13-09 at 16:00: Everton - Aston Villa: Both teams to score (1.78)

Alternative bet: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (2.36)

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