England – Spain 27-07-2025

The Women's European Championship has been a great showcase for those who have not yet opened their eyes to women's football. With a goal every 26 minutes, we as spectators have gotten our money's worth almost every time we have sat down in front of the screen. And it is one thing that 104 goals have been scored, with an average of 3.47 goals per match, but there have also been technical skills, tactical cleverness, surprises and strong emotions. Just the way football should be. In addition, we have once again seen a championship where the referees have taken a tough line, which in turn leads to players abandoning hopeless attempts to film free kicks. Liberating.  

And now we're at the final. Reigning European champion against reigning world champion. Because even though France was tipped to go far, there's no way to say that it's exactly these two who will be left standing in the end.

England – Darwinian drive

The road to the final has been far from trouble-free for the Lionesses. They started the ball rolling by losing 2-1 to France, and thus advanced as runners-up from Group D. But the problems didn't stop there, because in both the quarter-final against Sweden and the semi-final against Italy they ended up behind. Against Sweden they were even 0-2 down until there were 11 minutes left, while against Italy they waited until the 96th minute to score the equalizer. As a result, both playoff matches went to extra time, so the English girls have a lot of minutes in their legs.

But a tortuous path to the final doesn't have to be all negative. The team has shown an enormous work ethic, and they have repeatedly proven to themselves that it pays to not give up. In addition, they have shown that they have a wide squad with qualities in all areas. An example of this is substitutes like Agyemang and Kelly who both came on and scored goals in the match against Italy. Agyemang did the same in the quarter-finals against Sweden.

Still, there is little indication that Wiegman will make any significant changes to the team before the final. James, Russo and Hemp will probably start up front, with Stanway, Walsh and Toone in the middle. And at the back, the aging Lucy Bronze will probably continue her big game at right-back, while captain Leah Williamson will control everything from the center-back position. In addition, I think goalkeeper Hannah Hampton has played her part throughout the championship, and this group could quickly make it difficult for the Spaniards.

Spain – should success be recreated?

For the reigning world champions, the road to the final has been paved with dazzling attacking play and fine individual performances. But with a 17-3 goal difference in five matches, we have also seen a team that builds its attacking play on a solid defensive foundation. After all, the best form of football is not allowing the opposition to have the ball.

But even though both results and statistics would suggest that they play the type of football we remember the Spanish men being trained for from a few years ago. An even more extreme variant of tiki-taka than the one we see today. But the fact is that the Spanish women are no strangers to using the long pass if they see a defense out of balance. At the same time, their technical skills and good movements mean that they can also let the ball go along the ground in attack, if there was a need for it. So this Spanish team has a lot of strings to play on.

And led by Putellas and Bonmati, it's hard to see this not going to work. They have scored the most goals (17), they have the top scorer (Gonzalez), they have had the most possession (67%), they have the player with the most assists (Alexia), they have had the most shot attempts (123), they have made the most passes (89.2%) and they have kept the most clean sheets (3). Spain are, rightly, the favourites to lift the trophy.

Conclusion – position war?

But statistics are one thing. Finals in major championships do not have to deal with statistics. And we know that a football match can go completely against all predictions. That's why we leave Spain at what we believe are slightly too low odds (1.80). But we have still found an exciting bet, which we believe is set a couple of notches too high.

Because we should remember that this is a match between the two highest scoring teams in the tournament, with 17 and 15 goals each respectively. In addition, there are also the teams with the most shot attempts, and perhaps just as importantly in this context; by far the most cross attempts. There are Spain with 112 and England with a whopping 141. So both of these teams like to double up on the wing and attack from there. And in a final it is not inconceivable that they will pack even more in the middle and force the opponent out to the sides.

Because this has been a regular feature in this championship. And in Spain's five matches there have been a total of 55 corners. 42 to Spain and 13 to the opposing teams. Which gives an average of 11 per match. Now it has been somewhat quieter on the corner front in England's matches, where there have been "only" 42 corners in total. 28 to England and 14 to the opponents.

But we don't necessarily see a goal celebration here. Finals are often a battle for position. And it's not inconceivable that the match will be similar to the semi-finals, where one team dominates the field play, while the other team is low. And there's a good chance that Spain will have the ball most here. And in that sense, our bet should have been on the total number of corners to Spain. But we're a little afraid of what will happen if Spain takes the lead. Will they turn it off, roll the ball and wait for time? We don't know. And when you have to bet 5.5 corners to get odds, we've given up.

So we looked at 3.5 corners to England. Good odds at 1.80, if they get enough ball to produce that. But Spain have only conceded over 3.5 corners twice in this tournament, and what if England get the first goal? That could happen, and if so our chances would be significantly reduced. So we settled on total corners. That bet takes into account several potential outcomes. And the odds surprised us. The reason is probably that the bookmakers are expecting a cautious approach from both teams, but the number is low enough that there is value here anyway. So we try the following;

Women's European Championship at 18:00: England – Spain: Over 8.5 corners (1.61)

Alternative games:

Women's European Championship at 18:00: England – Spain: Over 3.5 corners to England (1.80)

Women's European Championship at 18:00: England – Spain: Over 9.5 corners (1.98)