Empoli – Lazio 04-05-2025

Analysis of the teams

With four games left in the season, two teams that still have a lot to play for meet this weekend. At one end of the table we find Empoli, who are fighting tooth and nail to sneak back onto the right side of the line. At the other end lies Lazio, with one clear goal in mind – European play next season! Both teams still have the opportunity to make their hopes a reality when the results are announced on May 25th.

Empoli – desperation meets opportunity

After the previous season, the team from Tuscany could rejoice in renewed confidence in the Italian top division, having barely saved their place. The problem is that not much has changed since then. Second to last in the table is a tough place to be at the end of the season. Even worse is that Empoli has not won a football match since December 8th last year – 19 matches in Serie A without a single three points. It goes without saying that the situation is what it is: a fight to avoid relegation.

Empoli are struggling with many of the same problems as the teams around them – they are scoring too little. 27 goals in 34 matches gives an average of 0.8 goals per match. If we look at the defensive organisation, which in theory should be a good and compact five-back line, this has not worked in practice either. The team is conceding 1.6 goals per match – far too many, which is reflected in their results.

From bad to worse is the absence list, with Empoli having two players out with suspension for this weekend's match, including Scottish midfielder Liam Henderson, who has been one of the few bright spots this season. In addition, six players are out with injury.

Another bright spot is Sebastiano Esposito. The young Italian up front for Empoli has been a key contributor, scoring eight of the team's 27 goals this season.

It is clear that the possibility of staying above the line is still there – Lecce in 17th place is just two small points ahead. So it could be an exciting end to the season. But for that to happen, Empoli must make the most of the last four games, where more “six-pointers” await.

Lazio – when just winning is good enough

When the season was half-way through, many believed that this could be something really special for the capital club. They won games, scored a lot of goals and appeared very solid. With four games left, we can see that it was only "almost" on several fronts. A slightly disappointing seventh place is now the reality before the end of the season, although the hope of European play is still alive - despite strong competitors at the top of the table.

Lazio were also one of the favourites to reach the Europa League final in Bilbao at the end of May, but that dream was shattered on penalties against a team from Northern Norway – a match that most Norwegian football fans probably watched. After the exit, Lazio responded strongly with a 0–2 away win against Genoa, but they were unable to follow up with another win and had to settle for a 2–2 and one point at home against Parma in the previous round. A somewhat disappointing performance, especially as clear favourites.

Although the performances have been somewhat variable, Lazio still have good numbers – 1.7 goals on average per game. Defensively, they have been a bit weaker in recent months, and the average has increased to 1.3 goals conceded per game. This has resulted in several poor results, compared to the club's ambitions.

It is important to have the offensive weapons in place anyway - both Valentin Castellanos and Boulaye Dia have delivered as a spearhead and false nine respectively. Between them they have 24 goal involvements in Serie A this season, and they have been very important for Lazio. The team has also scored 8 goals in their last 5 games, which makes them a difficult team to deal with when they are on their game and having the day.

Away win in Tuscany?

Looking at the table, it's clear who will be crowned the favourites in this match. Lazio still have a lot to play for, even if there's no silverware to be won at the end of the season. Empoli's post-New Year stats are not impressive, and while they're still struggling, they've had a lot to play for too long - without us seeing much improvement. The stats aren't on their side either; they haven't won any of their last 12 meetings with Lazio. Ten of those have been won by Lazio, with only two ending in a draw.

Italy 12:30: Empoli - Lazio: Lazio win (1.79)

Alternative bets: over 1.5 goals to Lazio (1.87)

Sebastiano Esposito over 0.5 shots on goal (1.85)

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