Eintracht Frankfurt - RB Leipzig 26-04-2025

The final stretch in the race for Champions League tickets – now it matters

Both Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig are in with Champions League tickets ahead of one of the most important matches of the season for these teams. A mistake here could be costly with only 4 games left in the season. Eintracht Frankfurt have been fierce at Deutsche Bank Park this season with only 3 losses in 15 games, +15 in goal difference and PPG of 2.00. The winner here can get a solid grip on both teams' goals this season – CL games next season – while the loser will have to make sure to keep several teams chasing behind them. We can go all the way down to Mönchengladbach in 9th place to find real candidates to snatch the important 4th place. However, what could have been a party show between two offensive teams may instead be marked by injuries, form dips and mental fatigue. Frankfurt have struggled to create and create chances in recent weeks, while Leipzig's injury problems force an experimental back four and a second goalkeeper in goal. All of this sets the stage for an intense and tactical showdown – with little room for error.

Eintracht Frankfurt: Stable at the back – but lead-heavy going forward

Eintracht Frankfurt have been unable to break free offensively in recent weeks. The 0-0 draw against Augsburg was the team's second consecutive goalless draw, and in four of their last five they have gone goalless in the second half. The previously effective counter-attacking football has ground to a halt, thanks in large part to the absence of key players such as Mario Götze and Omar Marmoush.

At the same time, the team has an impressive ability to close the gap: only one goal behind in their last four in the league. At home at Deutsche Bank Park they have been solid, with three wins in their last four, and their only loss in that period came against Tottenham in the Europa League.

Trapp is back in goal, and ahead of him is expected to be a three-man back line with Tuta, Robin Koch and Arthur Theate. The midfield is controlled by Skhiri and Larsson, while offensive responsibility falls to Chaïbi and Hugo Ekitike. Knauff, Bahoya and Batshuayi can come in as wild cards after the break. Götze, Dina Ebimbe and Kauã Santos are still out.

Key statistics:

• Four of the last five matches have ended under 2.5 goals.

• Three wins in the last four home games in the league.

• Only one win in the last five games in total.

• Hasn't scored in two straight games, and only scored once after halftime in five games.

• Lost both meetings with Leipzig this season (1–2 in the league, 0–3 in the cup).

RB Leipzig: Injuries create uncertainty – but the top level is still there

RB Leipzig's season has been a rollercoaster, and it continues to be a rollercoaster. Against Holstein Kiel they had to salvage points with a late penalty from Sesko, after a game in which they created only two big chances from open play. Yet they have also shown flashes of explosiveness – six goals in two games before the Kiel game, including a strong 3-2 win away to Wolfsburg.

The biggest problem? The long injury list. The defense has to be improvised again without Orban, Raum and Henrichs, and veteran goalkeeper Gulácsi is coming off a horrific injury from the previous match. That means another fight for Vandevoordt, certainly not a bad choice, while Bitshiabu, Klostermann and Lukeba have to keep order at the back. Schlager is missing in the middle, and up front Šeško and Openda will probably start, with Simons as a possible substitute after suspension. Simons could also be a wild card here, and it wouldn't be surprising if we see him from the start.

Key statistics:

• Only one win in the last ten away games before the Wolfsburg game.

• Has conceded goals in their last five matches.

• Has scored at least two goals in four of the last five games.

• Weak xG statistics: Only 10th best in the league with 42.8 xG.

• Won both meetings with Frankfurt this season, but both games were decided after halftime.

This could be an even and goalless battle

Two teams in a nervous position. Frankfurt has the advantage of home field and a solid defensive structure, but seems completely turned off offensively. Leipzig has a higher top level, but must balance injuries and a shaky back four. The importance of the match suggests that we will get a cautious and tight opening – perhaps with more drama after the break. Given both teams' match form, injuries and match pattern, this is a match that smells of few goals and high tactical discipline. A late score or an individual miss could tip the whole thing over – but there is much to suggest that the teams will share the points.

With that, we can consider some current games:

• Under 2.5 goals (2.60): We get incredibly high odds on underscoring here. Why it is so high is difficult to understand when 4 of Frankfurt's last 5 matches have been lost. Both teams are also playing with a weakened attack and defensive approach. The importance of the match cannot be underestimated either, it is quite possible that both teams can be satisfied with 1 point here. Both teams have a very tough match schedule for the rest of the season. Skepticism always lurks when you see such odds, but here I think a late Easter egg may lie and choose this as an alternative bet anyway. If you feel like securing it further, you can still get under 3.5 goals at 1.66 odds - which is not bad either!

• Both teams to score: No (2.77): We might as well move even higher in odds when we look at whether both teams can score here. In Frankfurt's last 4 out of 5, including the Europa League, neither team has scored. The case is only 1 out of 5 for Leipzig, but they struggled for a long time against Holstein Kiel in the previous round. They also have a very average away form. If this bet is to stand, the margins have to be a bit on our side: Frankfurt has scored in all home games this season, and it happens quickly here too. Then we have to rely on the injury-prone Leipzig's inability to score away from home, it has happened in 5 games this season, 4 of them after the winter break! This is of course risky, but if you look at the match picture here it will be claimed as probable.

• Draw at half-time (2.50): With the conditions for the match and nerves more tense than usual, it may take some time for the teams to get used to each other. This suggestion is not based on statistics, but rather on how we approach the match and what is at stake.

• Under 1.5 goals at half-time (1.65): If we combine several of the points above, and consider the teams' condition during a match, it can be argued that the goals that should come will come in the 2nd half here. This bet also comes with good odds. What constitutes the uncertainty here is whether Leipzig will suddenly come up with a sparkling attacking game like we saw in their previous away match against Wolfsburg. Then they were 2-0 after 26 minutes, but that against a Wolfsburg in terrible form. I do not pull Frankfurt under the same umbrella, and I think Frankfurt's defense is far stronger. Especially at home. What we can back it up further with is that the last four of the last five meetings between Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig have had a maximum of one goal at half-time.

Bundesliga at 18:30: Eintracht Frankfurt - RB Leipzig: Under 1.5 goals at half-time (1.65) 

Alternative games: 

Bundesliga at 18:30: Eintracht Frankfurt - RB Leipzig: Under 2.5 goals (2.60) 

Bundesliga at 18:30: Eintracht Frankfurt – RB Leipzig: Draw at half-time (2.50)