Eintracht Frankfurt – Borussia Dortmund

The opening match after the winter break in Germany takes place in Frankfurt, a real treat when Eintracht is visited by Borussia Dortmund! A home team that delivered a completely unpredictable autumn season, where one extreme result after another gave both club and fans headaches. Against an away team that is stable, but lacks that little extra – or simply lacks quality – to keep up with the superb Bayern Munich.

After half a season, Eintracht Frankfurt is chasing an important place in the top 6, where they are currently in 7th place, while Dortmund is in 2nd place, 3 points ahead of Leverkusen, but a full 9 points behind Bayern Munich.

Eintracht Frankfurt – What do we get this time?

What can one say about Frankfurt's autumn season? The entertainment – ​​absolutely! But it was sometimes impossible to even try to predict what you were going to get when they entered the court. This started early. Results like 5-1, 3-4, 4-6, 6-0 actually happened. And there was no particular prerequisite for assuming who such results came against.

There is no doubt that Toppmöller's Frankfurt is having a tough season, but with that said, the team is only 1 point behind Stuttgart in 6th place. The goal difference is currently 0, but if the team can get off to a good start, it could quickly become a respectable points tally and table position in May.

With crazy results you would think that Frankfurt would top the list as over 2.5 goals, but that is not the case. Only 3 out of 7 home games have ended with over 2.5 goals. 3 games have ended with BTS. So we actually have a Frankfurt team that is mostly difficult to beat at home.

Then we have the DFB-Pokal match between these two from October to look back on – a match that ended 1-1, with Dortmund winning 4-2 on penalties. It was by all accounts an even match that could have gone either way.

For Frankfurt, Baum, goal guarantee Burkardt (out until the end of January), Bahoya and Batshuayi are missing. By far the biggest loss for the home team is Burkardt, where it will be up to Doan and/or Knauff in front of goal. 

Borussia Dortmund – Quality in all areas, but goals are lacking

Borussia Dortmund basically has more than enough quality going forward. Guirassy, ​​who scored 34 goals last season and 30 the season before that, hasn't really gotten it going this season. Adeyemi has underperformed. Beier hasn't done it in his Dortmund career so far. Duranville is another extremely exciting talent, but his contribution so far has been below par. Then we have Fabio Silva, and there's not really much more to add here other than that he's part of the squad.

The result is that Dortmund is in 2nd place, but has scored 29 goals less than Bayern Munich! What brings the team in is defensive stability, they have only conceded 1 goal more than Bayern Munich. But not to paint the team completely in a bad light, there is a lot of solidity in this team, especially when they face the yo-yo team Eintracht Frankfurt.

Dortmund have been more stable away from home this season than last. The result so far is 4-3-1, with the only away loss coming against Bayern Munich. The squad looks good; Anton is out, but is expected to return soon. Anselmino is out, but otherwise Dortmund is injury-free.

Conclusion: Goal bets are out, here we turn over some other stones

When these two met in the fall, there was great belief in BTS + over 2.5 goals. BTS we got, but it was a much more even and goalless match than expected. Only 3 of Frankfurt's 7 home matches have ended with BTS, as mentioned, 5 of 8 away matches for Dortmund.

Looking at matches between these from 2024 to date (4 matches), 2 have ended with BTS and only 1 match with over 2.5 goals. With this, marking also feels risky, especially after the winter break. None of the teams are clear favorites here, neither form, history nor home/away form can support it. Corners? No stable or clear trend for any of the teams. What might be more interesting is to look at something as simple as shots and shots on goal.

With uncertainty regarding goals, corners, marking and who will eventually take control of the match, it is often excellent to look at shots, which can quickly become a joker in the absence of other good odds options. Frankfurt average 13.29 shots at home, 4.71 on target. They concede 9.57 shots, 2.57 of which are on target. Dortmund, on the other hand, average 10.25 shots away, 3.75 on target. They concede 11.63, 3.88 on target. And the last time these two met? 29 shots in total (16 Frankfurt, 13 Dortmund). 10 on target (7 Frankfurt, 3 Dortmund). The match before that? 25 shots (13 Frankfurt, 12 Dortmund), 8 on target (5 Frankfurt, 3 Dortmund). So today's main bet is therefore;

Germany at 20:30: Eintracht Frankfurt – Borussia Dortmund: Over 23.5 shots (1.73)