Eintracht Frankfurt - Bayer Leverkusen 01-03-2025

Saturday night sees an exciting Bundesliga clash as third-placed Eintracht Frankfurt host Bayer Leverkusen at Deutsche Bank Park. The home team will be looking to bounce back from a brutal 0-4 defeat to Bayern Munich, while the visitors from Leverkusen are looking for three crucial points to keep their hopes of the league title alive.

Eintracht Frankfurt – A tough test awaits after the Bayern slam

Frankfurt have had a solid season and are in 3rd place with 42 points, but last round's meeting with Bayern Munich was a real wake-up call. After an even first half, things fell apart after the break, and the team missed six big scoring chances without creating a single one of their own. It was a reminder that they still have some way to go to be among the very best in the league.

Defensively, Eintracht have struggled recently. They haven't kept a clean sheet in six games and have conceded 11 goals in that period. However, they are strong at home - in their last 12 games at Deutsche Bank Park, they have won nine and drawn two.

Offensively, the team has delivered consistently well throughout the season, with 49 goals in 23 games, making them the league's third highest scoring team. But there's no denying that the team has looked different since Marmoush disappeared. He was a very important piece in this team, and in another world I would have liked to see how Eintracht Frankfurt had finished the season with his formidable addition. However, since he disappeared, Hugo Ekitike and Mario Götze have had to step up even more. They are expected to lead the attack, but the defense needs to be adjusted with Tuta suspended and Robin Koch out with injury. Two absences that will cause headaches for Toppmöller.

Key statistics for Eintracht Frankfurt:

• No clean sheets in 6 games – 11 goals conceded in this period.
• Won 9 of their last 12 home games.
• Has scored in 21 of his 23 league games this season.
• Lost the last four matches against Bayer Leverkusen.

Bayer Leverkusen – Points are essential to keep pace in the gold battle

Xabi Alonso's Leverkusen have been one of the big talk of the season, especially after last year's formidable campaign. With 50 points from 23 games, they are in second place, 8 points behind Bayern Munich. They are unbeaten in their last 21 Bundesliga games, but three of their last five have ended in draws, making the title race even more difficult. Every point lost is a big step back, as Bayern are simply more consistent and in form this season and take their chances when Leverkusen slip. When Bayern also thrashed Eintracht Frankfurt in the previous round, Leverkusen know that they should take all 3 points home.

Last weekend they took a controlled 2-0 win over Holstein Kiel, where they completely dominated and allowed the opponent to only one shot inside their own box. Shots and corner kicks were a thing of the past in that match. Defensively they have been solid lately, with three straight games without a goal – as many as in the previous ten.

Bayer Leverkusen have also been extremely strong away from home. They are unbeaten in their last 28 Bundesliga matches on foreign turf and have won 20 of them. That is an enormously strong statistical basis ahead of the meeting with a Frankfurt team that struggles defensively. Leverkusen will still have to do without Hincapié, who is suspended, and Belocian, who is out for the season. Hermoso could make his debut in central defence, while the attacking trio of Adli, Wirtz and Boniface are likely to start.

Key statistics for Bayer Leverkusen:

• Undefeated in 21 straight Bundesliga matches (16-5-0).
• Three straight games without a setback.
• Won four games in a row against Eintracht Frankfurt.
• Unbeaten away from home in 28 Bundesliga matches (20-8-0).

More good games to choose from

Leverkusen are the natural favorites here, but Eintracht Frankfurt have been strong at home and have scored in almost all of their games this season. At the same time, Leverkusen have been rock solid away from home and have a good history against Frankfurt. Let's take a closer look at some of the betting options:

Possible games:

• Leverkusen have delivered exactly as expected lately, especially in terms of chance creation. I therefore look at corner play first. Considering the premise of the match and two teams that almost have to take 3 points to keep up here, I would think that there will be a lot of corners. The previous match ended with 11 corners (7 to Leverkusen and 3 to Frankfurt). In the last 3 matches, Leverkusen has 11, 6 and 9 corners, which includes opposition such as Bayern Munich and Wolfsburg. Frankfurt, on the other hand, stands with 1, 4 and 1. You can go for corners in total here, but then you have to go all the way up to over 9.5 corners which can be had at 1.78. Then I find better value in Leverkusen over 5.5 corners at 1.85 in odds. It is not at all impossible that Leverkusen can do it, even on a challenging away field against top opposition. Leverkusen's attacking line manages to produce against any opposition.
• Another bet, which builds on the suggestion above, is corners in the 1st half. Leverkusen always go hard in matches, it was especially clear against Holstein Kiel, and they keep it going. With that we get chances from the first minute and hence corners. But the odds are not entirely with us here, but if you want to try a safer bet like that, you can get over 3.5 corners in the 1st half at 1.37. But again it is more tempting to look in the direction of Leverkusen here; over 2.5 corners in the 1st half are available at 1.85 odds. Leverkusen's average is 3.18 corners in the 1st half away from home this year, so it can certainly be supported by statistics. We can also look at the home team here: over 1.5 corners in the 1st half are available at 1.50 odds. Frankfurt averages 2.64 corners in the 1st half at home this year.
• Furthermore, it is tempting to look at goal bets here. That both teams score is natural to look at first, there we get 66 in odds and both teams average high on it (74% for Leverkusen and 73% for Frankfurt). In the last 4 of 5 matches between these, both teams have scored. Here I also think we get good odds on such a bet, although I think the home team will struggle here against a Leverkusen that has really closed up lately.
• The next thing to look at is the number of goals. In the last 5 matches between these, all have gone over 2.5 goals and 3 of them have actually gone over 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.68 in odds. This is also a very good option, which makes choosing the main bet even more difficult. Over 3.5 goals is available at 2.70 in odds , this can be a solid option if you believe that we will have an open match. I am keeping it a bit on the sidelines, and it is mostly based on the previous match between these in addition to recent form and available match squads.
• After watching Leverkusen a lot, you know that this team either scores first or well into overtime, it happens again. And you often get good odds on which teams score first, especially in top matches. It is of course much riskier with such a bet, but if you rely on statistics, it is theoretically adjusted down somewhat. In the previous match against Frankfurt, Leverkusen ended up with an xG of 3.89 and a whopping 27 shots (9 of them on goal). Leverkusen's average this season is 13.55 shots on the away field and we get over 14.5 shots at 1.61 in odds. Eintracht Frankfurt is also in a solid position here, with an average of 17.36 shots at home matches, and we get over 11.5 shots at 1.91 for the home team. Shots on goal can also be had at nice values, over 5.5 to 1.81 for Leverkusen and over 3.5 to 1.71 for Eintracht Frankfurt. Exciting options that are good value.
• The last alternative I want to look at is who scores first. And if you follow Leverkusen closely, you know that they either score first or last in their matches, and they almost always keep a steady pace in the matches. Leverkusen have scored first in 10 of 11 away matches this season. They have scored first in the last 3 of 5 matches against Eintracht Frankfurt, and my gut feeling is that they can score first here too. Leverkusen to score first is available at 1.60 in odds. I would like to see slightly higher odds on that particular game, as many coincidences can play a role in a top match on this particular one. I think that it is not good enough odds to be considered a main bet, but certainly a good alternative bet.

So where do we end up in a list of good betting options? It's not easy to decide when you have support for several of the options and the assumption of an open match. You can therefore almost pick and choose a little based on what you yourself believe in and the odds value. I have the most faith that Leverkusen will run this match to a certain extent and produce chances as we have seen in most matches. Their dominance against Bayern at home was impressive, even if they didn't take the big chances. We saw the same against Wolfsburg. And that's exactly what I have in mind, that it may fail a little on that front. That's why I like the options that go for production and not necessarily results. The main bet here is therefore:

Germany at 15:30: Eintracht Frankfurt – Bayer Leverkusen: Over 5.5 corners to Bayer Leverkusen (1.85) – 5/10 units

Alternative game:

Germany at 15:30: Eintracht Frankfurt – Bayer Leverkusen: Over 2.5 goals (1.68) – 5/10 units