Eintracht Frankfurt – Ajax 13-03-2025

Of all the matches I watched last week, Eintracht Frankfurt – Ajax was probably the one that entertained me the most. I might have expected a quieter match, as this was the first match of a doubleheader, but here everyone was pumped up throughout the match. And in the second leg there could easily be even more action.

Analysis of the teams

It's getting closer, and here the quarter-finalists will be chosen. And while the home team took the first step in Amsterdam, Ajax is fully aware that the game is alive. And we plan to take advantage of that. But be early. Last week the odds fell significantly throughout the week, and there are many indications that the same could happen here.

Eintracht Frankfurt – the dream of 2022

After two juicy losses, against Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen respectively, the theoretical hope of gold in the 1.Bundesliga is seriously six feet under. And we know that RB Leipzig torpedoed all hopes of gold in the DFB Pokal for the gang from Hessen. So then there is the Europa League. The tournament they won in 2022, after penalties in the final against Rangers. And here half the job is done.

But Ajax is no ordinary team, and with Union Berlin in the home series on Sunday, and an away game against Bochum three days after the match against Ajax, it is important to keep your tongue in your mouth if you are to still be in the fight for the Champions League. And even more importantly; keep the squad injury-free. But fortunately, the home team has a wide squad, and when players like Uzun only get 6 minutes, you know they have a lot of strings to play on. In addition, Skhiri will be rested against Union, as he has to serve his quarantine. And the goalscorer from the last match could easily play a central role again here.

But there were many who impressed me last Thursday. And we can't ignore Ekitike. But if I were to highlight a player who impressed me even more, in addition to the defenders Kristensen and Theate, it was the young Swede Hugo Larsson. His goal was of course nice, but it was the drive with the ball that took me a little to bed. With the ball at his feet, something happened every time he was in action, and Ajax will have a hard time stopping all the threats at Frankfurt. Because in addition to those I have mentioned, Bahoya, Knauff and Gotze can also cause trouble for the reds from Amsterdam.

Ajax – the resurrection

While it was surprising to see Ajax below the relegation zone at one point last year, and we knew they would bounce back, it is impressive to see this year's edition. Just a year after their collapse, they are now leading the Eredivisie, and they are in the last 16 of the Europa League. And this year's edition looks more solid than previous versions. Because it is still about speed, technique and goals, but with Henderson in central midfield, and the physicality of Brobbey at the top, they have a physical dimension that they may have previously lacked offensively.

And the aforementioned Brobbey was extremely good last time. In the first five minutes alone, he had been through twice, with one goal chance ending up in the woodwork. And before 10 minutes had passed, he had scored a goal with a nice header. And his speed and physique are extremely important here too. But once the shock had worn off, Frankfurt ate into the game, and we saw a sometimes rather naive defensive game give the guests several big chances. And Remko Pasveer played great in the 22 minutes he was allowed to play. The 41-year-old suffered a strain, and I would be very surprised if that injury heals in time to make it to this match. And substitute Gorker impressed no one.

But Ajax also has strings to play on, and Berghuis in particular is an ace up his sleeve. But the Norwegian Oliver Edvardsen unfortunately impressed no one when he came on. So Ajax will probably have to rely much more on those who start, and mainly Brobbey. But we should remember that Ajax has won 9 of the last 9 games in the Eredivisie, and is thus undefeated in the domestic league since December 8. So they will contribute with attacks, and maybe also goals here. And that is the starting point for our main game.

We believe in an open match with many scoring chances

With 1.66 vs 1.60 in xG, the first match between these two was a firework. And now that we know that everything will be decided, and that Ajax will have to risk more from the start, there is no reason to believe that it will be any more boring here. And we saw how they were man to man behind in balance, and often outnumbered in imbalance, so here there can be goal chances now that Ajax has to advance. And in that sense, over 1.5 goals to Frankfurt need not have been a stupid bet at 1.81. But we like the away team to have to attack and the home team to be able to counterattack. And even if Ajax were to score, and thus equalize the advantage, we know, based on the first match, that it is in the players' DNA to go on the attack. And therefore we are also tempted by over 2.5 goals at 1.73 in odds. Especially now that Ajax's first goalkeeper is injured. And the temptation is further strengthened when we know that these odds will drop drastically later in the week.

But the odds with the best value are probably the odds on corners. With fast and technical ball players, who also have to come forward, there will be corners. We got 11 corners in the first meeting, and I don't see why we shouldn't go up to the same number here. The argument against an overbet is that Frankfurt can be lower now that they are leading, but I would be surprised if they choose that tactic from the start. 2-1 is not a big lead, and they will probably take the chances that come their way. And it helps to know that Frankfurt produce 4.96 corners per game, and give up 5.04 corners per game in the domestic league. While Ajax produce 5.17 corners in the Eredivisie. A league that is so divided that we don't emphasize the fact that they only give up 3.33 per game.

In addition, it should be mentioned that Ajax under Farioli is far less goal-hungry than previous editions. And although it pains the average Dutchman to see a team that doesn't just think about attack, it does produce results. Because it's been a long time since Ajax has only had 2.9 goals on average in their matches. So even though the goal games are tempting, we feel the value lies here;

Europa League at 18:45: Eintracht Frankfurt – Ajax: Over 8.5 corners (1.71)