Edmonton Oilers - Florida Panthers 06-05-2025

The 2025 Stanley Cup Final is ready, and that means we are actually here as we predicted early in an assessment before the season started. The same teams that played in the final last year are ready to go at each other again. Who doesn't remember last year's intense final that went to 7 games. The Florida Panthers, who ran away with the title that time, led 3-0 in games, before Edmonton came back to 3-3. The last game was as intense as it could be, but was probably characterized by the fact that both teams had something to lose. The Florida Panthers had the home field advantage in game 7, and decided in front of their own fans by the smallest possible margin, and ultimately won 2-1. This season, the Edmonton Oilers were the higher-ranked team before the playoffs of these two, which means that they have the advantage of the most home games if it comes all the way to game 7 this season as well.

As we wrote a little about before this year's season. We expected that both of these teams would start relatively calmly. Because we have seen it before with teams that go far, and often play the final, that it takes a while before the teams are back on top. Many of the other teams have had a long period of time off, and are hungry for the season to start. While the final teams have not been rested well enough. But as we predicted, these teams got into shape throughout the season, and especially in the playoffs both teams have been good.

We predict a close final this time too, and because of last year's final, the teams have met each other 9 times in less than a year. These teams know each other well.

Edmonton Oilers – The world's best player will be the key.

Edmonton Oilers who finished 3rd in The Pacific Division with a record of 48-29-5. Absolutely wild, but this regular season actually consists of a full 82 games. I don't think any other sport can boast that. It's absolutely insane how fast these players can play games. During large periods of the year, there are actually games 4 times a week. Taking into account the travel distance the teams also have to deal with at times, this is impressive stuff.

I think many of the Edmonton fans were wondering how the season would go at the start. Because the team started weakly, and lost 5 of the first 7 games. But it would turn out to be one of the weakest periods of the entire season. The team has been doing well throughout the season after that, except for a period in February/March, where they also had 6 losses in 7 games. Since then, the team has lost a maximum of two games in a row before fighting back. This led to them finishing only 3 points behind where they were last year after 82 games. It must be said to be stable. Much of the key to success will probably also lie here. Because it is this stability over time that characterizes this team.

Another thing that of course characterizes teams that have come this far is the quality of the stars. Here the Oilers have the world's best hockey player to beat the table with. Connor McDavid is a player in a class of his own. For those who have seen this player, you know what I'm talking about. He has crazy speed on the skates, and with the technique to match this speed, it sometimes looks like he's playing against children. He maneuvers through physical teams, as if it were a hot knife in butter, and it's almost not what you believe what you see at times. A feast for the eyes, and those who love this sport. He also leads the team in points in the playoffs, and stands with 26 points so far there (6 goals, 20 assists). Other star players who have produced so far in the playoffs are German Leon Draisaitl (7 goals, 18 assists). Both of these guys average well over 20 minutes in the regular season, and will probably be used extra heavily now in the finals. Other players worth mentioning are Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (5 goals, 13 assists), as well as guard Evan Bouchard, who serves as their power play quarterback. A major weakness, however, is that Zach Hyman appears to be out for the rest of the playoffs.

The key to success will likely be closely tied to whether these star players succeed in the finals. They have last year with them, and will certainly be desperate to get off to a better start in the finals than last season, when they were down 3-0 in games. The key could be right here. The team that gets off to the best start is probably the team that will be the favorites to make it all the way. We think Edmonton might have the better team, and we're leaning that way. But before that, let's take a look at last year's champion.

Florida Panthers – An easier path to the finals.

The Florida Panthers are a rare machine. They are in their third final in three years. That is one of those rare things. It says a lot about the stability of this team. They also have the ability to strengthen the necessary positions to keep the quality up. This is a team that most people hate to play against. They can play technically, they can play physically and they can play smart. We saw a lot of that in the finals last year, when in game 7 they were just cynical enough to win game 7. After all the first 6 games were offensive and goal-rich. They went out to kill the last game with a controlled 2-1 victory. Smartness from the bench was probably crucial there, when the Oilers had momentum, and had tied the game at 3-3.

As we often say, even solid teams need star players to be able to take it all home. This Panthers team has a lot of that. Especially players like Aleksander Barkov (6 goals, 11 assists), Sam Bennett (10 goals, 6 assists), Matthew Tkachuk (5 goals, 10 assists) and Carter Verhaeghe (6 goals, 8 assists) have been impressive. In addition, a player like Brad Marchand (4 goals, 10 assists) has come into the team well after his transfer from the Boston Bruins. There are also 5 other players who have 10 points or more in the playoffs. So here the goals can come from deep in the team. That is probably one of the strengths that speaks for the Panthers to win this. In fact, 19 of 22 field players on this team have scored at least 1 goal in the playoffs. Those are wild numbers.

When the playoffs come around, it will often be about who has the best players. We feel that the Panthers are behind their opponent in star quality, but perhaps a notch ahead in depth. What is a bit special about the finals in the playoffs is that the first and second rows are used much more than earlier in the season, and that means that the star players often increase their playing time now. It is not uncommon for some players to get up to 30 minutes in individual games. If the Panthers are going to match the Oilers in this, they will probably struggle. So we think they will let many of their players play their minutes to have strength at the end. Then we may not be talking about the end now in game 1. But beyond in the finals. In that sense, we think they are gambling a bit at the beginning, and testing the depth of the team as long as it lasts. Even if they lose this game.

The road to the finals has been somewhat easier for the Panthers than the Oilers on paper. They needed 17 games to get to the finals, while the Oilers needed 16. So even though the opposition on paper was easier, the road was longer before they were in the finals. We think that is of little importance. But we think it can say something about the expected quality and strength. We will discuss that a little more in the conclusion.

Conclusion – The Oilers need to start better than last season.

In the playoffs, the Oilers have overcome teams ranked 3rd, 5th and 6th on their way to the finals. While the Panthers have overcome teams ranked 4th, 7th and 10th. The Panthers also went to game 7 against the Maple Leafs, the only series that went to the final game. As we can see from the numbers, the Panthers have faced easier opposition on paper on their journey so far if you take the entire table as a basis. Then we know that it doesn't come out completely right, as some of the divisions are assumed to be easier to pick up points in than others. But it gives a clue.

We have nevertheless chosen to turn the game towards a goal-oriented game. If we look at what these teams can provide going forward on the pitch, this feels safer than much else.

We have high hopes that the Oilers will win the first game, and odds of 2.23 are reasonable. But considering the high-scoring games these teams have had with each other, we're going to try an over bet. Both of these teams can cover these over bets on a good day.

Stanley Cup at 02:00: Edmonton Oilers - Florida Panthers: Over 6 goals (1.81)