DSC Arminia Bielefeld – VfB Stuttgart

On Saturday evening, May 24, 2025, the German football season will end with the classic highlight: the DFB-Pokal final at the Olympiastadion in Berlin. On one side stands Bundesliga team VfB Stuttgart , who are chasing their first trophy since 1997, and on the opposite half of the pitch we have Arminia Bielefeld , newly promoted to the 2nd Bundesliga after winning the 3rd League – and the cup's biggest surprise by far.

Can Arminia make history and become the first team from the third tier since 1993 to lift the trophy? Or will Stuttgart ensure that the favourites stick in a season that otherwise ended without a place in Europe and a disappointing 9th place? Even though there are 2 divisions separating these teams, we dare say that this will be far more even – Arminia have already shown that they can compete with anyone above them in the league system. Apart from the trophy itself, a place in next season's Europa League is also at stake – something that Stuttgart is almost expecting and Bielefeld is dreaming of. Much is in the making for a brilliant football match!

Arminia Bielefeld – The cup dream lives on

Arminia Bielefeld are not just there to participate. Under coach Michél Kniat, the team has been extremely solid defensively and very effective in the cup. They have eliminated 4 Bundesliga teams of 16. Union Berlin went down before that. They now have an impressive 5 wins (4 of these against Bundesliga opposition, 1 against Hannover 96 in the 2nd Bundesliga) and an 11–3 goal difference in this year's cup adventure.

Arminia Bielefeld have made history by reaching their first ever DFB-Pokal final. Kniat has created a team that combines disciplined defence with effective counter-attacking football and set-piece strength. They impressed in the semi-final against Leverkusen, where goals from Marius Wörl and Maximilian Großer secured the victory, and sure possession with a high xG set the standard. They both created more than Leverkusen and dribbled the ball with the greatest confidence against the reigning cup champions, and we have seen that against every team they have faced in the cup. There is little that reminds us that this is a team from the 3rd league. The team's tactical setup is mostly a solid 4-2-3-1 formation, with Corboz controlling the midfield. At the top, Julian Kania has been a reliable goalscorer with 14 league goals this season.

The injury situation looks bright for Bielefeld, with no reported injuries before the final. They are expected to field the same eleven as in the semi-finals, with players like Louis Oppie and Marius Wörl in key roles. They also come to Berlin as newly crowned league champions, with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 with an 11-2 goal difference. In all respects, it is a perfect way to end a brilliant season at the Olympiastadion. A brief look at Arminia's season in terms of goals, corners and cards:

• Arminia over 2.5 goals in 10 of 19 home games (53%). 21 of 38 overall (55%).
• Corners home: 6.53 – away: 6.58 – overall: 6.55. Last 5: 5.8 for, 2.6 against. Match average: 8.4
• Cards at home: 1.58 average (30 in 19 games). Away: 2.68 (51 in 19 games). Overall: 2.13 (81 in 38 games).

Key statistics:

• Cup sensation : Knocked out four Bundesliga teams on their way to the final – Bayer Leverkusen, Freiburg, Werder Bremen and Union Berlin. The fifth opponent to bow out was Hannover 96.

• Undefeated for 90 minutes in the DFB-Pokal : Went undefeated through all DFB-Pokal matches after regular time – 5 matches without a loss after 90 minutes.

• Scoring in all DFB-Pokal matches : Has scored in all 5 of their cup matches – in all matches they have scored 2 goals or more.

• Best defense in the 3rd League : Conceded the fewest goals in the league – only 36 goals in 38 games, which gives an average of 0.95.

• Strong form : Undefeated in their last 12 matches (league and cup).

VfB Stuttgart – Can "Die Schwaben" save the season?

Stuttgart had a disappointing season compared to last year and missed out on a Europa League spot, but only by a 2-point margin, which shows how evenly matched the Bundesliga has been this season. However, their cup form has been good, with victories against RB Leipzig (3–1) and FC Augsburg (1–0) in the semi- and quarter-finals, among others. In their 5 cup matches, they have a strong goal difference of 14-2.

VfB Stuttgart enter the final with a strong end to the Bundesliga season. They are coming off a strong 3-2 win away to RB Leipzig and are 3-1-1 in their last 5 games with a 12-7 goal difference. Sebastian Hoeneß has revved up the attack, with the trio of Woltemade, Undav and Demirovic all in fine scoring form (they each scored a goal in the match against RB Leizpig, among others).

Woltemade has been particularly impressive with 16 goals in 32 games (12 in the Bundesliga), which has led to his first national team selection. Demirovic has not been any worse with his 15 Bundesliga goals this season. Undav is further behind, but that can largely be attributed to a longer injury break. He still has 9 goals this season. The one who may have disappointed is Leweling, who has not lived up to expectations. The midfield has been led by a sought-after Stiller, but he is out with injury for this match, which is a big loss. However, Millot and Karazor have shown solid cooperation this season and should be able to cover for Stiller's absence well. Mittelstädt has also had a solid season with 7 assists and 1 goal from his left wing-back position.

The aforementioned Stiller and Stergiou are out with injuries, and it is expected that Stenzel or Vagnoman will take his place at right-back. Apart from that, Stuttgart is also quite strong and injury-free. Stuttgart may be coming in with an extra motivation for this match: A victory bonus of two million euros has been agreed upon, which will be divided equally between the players. Now, the Stuttgart gang is not poorly paid by any means, but bonuses are of course a good thing. Whether Arminia has something like that in store is uncertain, but it is not unthinkable. On to Stuttgart's season in terms of goalkeeping, corners and cards:

• Stuttgart over 2.5 goals in 13 of 17 home matches (76%). 24 of 34 matches overall (71%).
• Corners at home: 6.12 – away: 4.47 – overall: 5.29. Last 5 matches: 6.8 for, 3.8 against. Match average: 10.6
• Cards: Home: 2.35 average (40 in 17 games). Away: 1.88 (32 in 17 games). Overall: 2.12 (72 in 34 games).
  

Key statistics:

• Goal-scoring in the cup : Has scored 2 goals or more in 4 out of 5 cup matches.

• Away strength : Only 4 away losses in the Bundesliga – far stronger than at home (8 losses).

• Form boost : Finished the Bundesliga season with three straight wins , with a solid 8-2 goal difference.

• Continuous goal threat : Has scored in 14 straight cup matches before the final – has not left the field goalless since 2021/22.

Past meetings and history

The last time they met in the cup? A brutal 6-0 win for Stuttgart in 2022/23. But Bielefeld actually had a five-match unbeaten streak before that when they met in league matches. In 15 matches between them over the years, there have been 4 Arminia wins, 5 draws and 6 Stuttgart wins. In 8/15 matches, both have scored and in the same number of matches there have been more than 2 goals.

Conclusion

When Arminia Bielefeld come into this final with four Bundesliga teams on the knockout stage, and score 2 goals or more in every single cup match, there is more than enough reason to believe that they can cause problems for Stuttgart. At the same time, Stuttgart has shown improved form and is naturally the favorite on paper here. That we first move into the goal game is not surprising. Stuttgart is coming off a season with a goal scoring average of 1.88 and 1.56 goals against. Arminia, on the other hand, is averaging 1.68 this season, with 0.95 goals against. We also bring the referee for the occasion: Christian Dingert, a very experienced referee. He has the following stats:

• 3.84 yellow cards per match (425 matches)
• 0.08 red cards (425 matches)
• 24/25: 3 yellow cards in 1 match in the DFB Pokal, 3.79 on average in 14 Bundesliga matches, 0.14 reds

With that noted, let's look over the range of potential games:

• Both teams to score (1.70): We get very good odds on both teams scoring, considering that both are coming off goal-rich cup matches. Both know very well where the goal is, but have shown weaknesses in the back as well. It would be argued that Arminia has a better defense, but Stuttgart naturally has a brute-force attack and can score against anyone on a good day. This is definitely a bet that needs to be considered.
• Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (1.98): Over 2.5 goals is only available at 1.54, and this is of course due to the fact that 3/5 of Arminia's cup matches have gone over 2.5 goals (the remaining two have ended 2-0) and 4/5 for Stuttgart. Both teams, but especially Stuttgart, also have a high goal average in the league. In addition, both teams are coming off fine scoring form from the end of the season, not to mention the division difference. There should be a class difference here, but neither of these teams got to the final by chance. It could easily be more even than what Stuttgart's win at 1.47 in odds suggests.
• Arminia over 0.5 goals (1.55): A low odds bet that can be combined with another bet is that Arminia will score at least 1 goal. There is a lot of belief in this, and it is also reflected in the odds.
• Arminia +2 (1.65): Giving Arminia a 2-goal handicap is a solid option. They haven't been outplayed in any way by opposition better than Stuttgart, like Leverkusen and Freiburg. On the contrary, they have outmaneuvered these teams. The big difference here is that the game is now being played at the Olympiastadion with far more fans than at home at the SchücoArena - maybe that makes some difference.
• Corners (x): Corners both ways can be considered here. Over 10.5 corners (1.85) is a good option, especially considering Stuttgart's corner statistics, especially the last 5 matches. Over 3.5 corners to Arminia (1.78) and over 6.5 corners to Stuttgart (1.90) can also both be considered well and supported by statistics and match picture. All corner bets can be considered well, considering statistics, the cup matches of both teams and the setting for the final.

It's great when you can pick and choose your bets in a final setting. It's not easy to choose the main bet, and all of the suggested bets can be set up as alternative bets or combo bets with something else. Downgrades can be chosen here, because there are still good odds on that. The main bet will be the following:

DFB-Pokal final at 20:00 – DSC Arminia Bielefeld – VfB Stuttgart: Both teams to score + over 2.5 goals (1.98) – 5/10 units

Alternative game: 

DFB-Pokal final at 20:00 – DSC Arminia Bielefeld – VfB Stuttgart: Arminia Bielefeld +2 (1.65) – 5/10 units