Draper – Baez 01-07-2025

Can the homegrown talent handle the pressure?

Jack Draper opens Wimbledon 2025 against Sebastian Baez – a duel that on paper appears extremely unbalanced. Draper is entering the form of his life. Baez, on the other hand, is a clay court specialist, and although he has received some training on grass, the difference in level is obvious. Here it is more about how clearly Draper wins – not whether he does.

Draper: Favorite on all fronts

Jack Draper has had a brilliant 2025 season. He has won Indian Wells, played in the final in Madrid and reached the semi-finals in London as a warm-up for Wimbledon. There he beat Popyrin, Brooksby and Nakashima before falling in a close match to Lehecka. Draper is now ranked number 4 in the world and is the British's biggest hope in the tournament.

His style is tailor-made for grass: heavy left serve, flat groundstrokes and power in his legs. His home court also gives him an extra boost – you can tell from his body language that he thrives in such situations. He has previously crashed out early at Wimbledon, but 2025 is the first time he has entered as a full-fledged title contender. He is expected to go far, and he should handle the first hurdle professionally.

Baez: A little grass form, but still vulnerable

Sebastian Baez is ranked 38th and has had success on clay earlier this year, including a title in Rio and a final in Bucharest. But when tournaments move to faster surfaces, his level drops sharply. Before Wimbledon last year, he lost 6–1, 6–1, 6–3 to Nakashima. In the run-up to this year, he has played two matches in the Boodles Challenge (exhibition tournament), where he beat compatriot Ugo Carabelli and then lost to Popyrin.

The victory over Carabelli does give a certain grass feel, but it must be taken with a pinch of salt: Carabelli is weak on grass, and exhibition matches lack the intensity we get here. In the ATP context, Baez still has to win a main tournament match on grass since 2023. He lacks both the serve, the return and the positioning to cause trouble for players like Draper on this surface.

Mutual settlement

This will be the first-ever meeting between Jack Draper and Sebastian Baez in an ATP context. While there are no direct H2H statistics to rely on, the playing style and surfaces clearly point in one direction. Draper is an aggressive, left-handed player who likes to dictate with his serve and first shots – which pays off on fast grass. Baez, on the other hand, is a rhythm player who builds points over time and thrives best on clay, where he gets more time.

When two players meet for the first time, it opens up uncertainty – but in this case, the odds are so skewed that it's hard to see how Baez will establish himself in the duels. Draper should be able to control the scoring from the start, and there's little in Baez's history to suggest he has the solutions needed on grass against a top-five player in form.

Conclusion: What does the market say?

The market has Draper as the huge favorite. A straight bet on victory gives 1.01 and is out of the question. Draper 3–0 in sets is around 1.22 – a likely outcome, but not enough in odds alone. Therefore, we have to look at other markets.

One of the most interesting is the underplay on games. This covers Draper 3–0 with relatively clear sets, such as 6–3, 6–3, 6–3 (total 27). Baez's serve is vulnerable, and Draper has returned well all 2025. It is entirely possible that we will get at least one set where Draper breaks twice – and then the bong looks very good.

Draper is in form, at home, and facing a player he should be clearly superior to on this surface. Baez has lost his last five grass matches at ATP level, and while he beat Carabelli at Boodles, that doesn't show he's competitive against top 10 opposition. Draper should win without getting broken, and we expect at least one set to be a clear one-way street.

Everything points to one thing.

ATP Wimbledon at 20:00: Draper – Baez: Under 28.5 games (1.59)

Alternative game:

ATP Wimbledon at 20:00: Draper – Baez: Draper -9.5 games (1.74)