Dramatic series ending in Ligue 1 17-05-2025

As calm descends in Norway after the national day celebrations, an extremely exciting final round of Ligue 1 awaits in France. Four teams are fighting for three European places, and four teams are fighting for survival in Ligue 1.

Dramatic series ending in Ligue 1

Who will get European play next season? Who will save the place? And who has the most motivation and will to do what it takes? If we look at the table, Lyon is in 7th place with 54 points – just behind Strasbourg, Lille and Nice, who all have 57 points. The goal difference could be decisive for who secures the European places. Before the last round, Lyon has 17 plus goals, while Strasbourg has 13, Lille 15 and Nice 19. Lyon meets Angers, who have nothing to play for. Strasbourg meets Le Havre, who should have three points tonight. Lille hosts Reims, who are still in danger and could end up in a qualifying place. Nice hosts Brest, who also have nothing to play for.

At the other end of the table, St. Etienne is in 17th place with 30 points, Le Havre with 31, and both Nantes and Reims with 33 points. We estimate that 13th place goes to Nantes, 14th to Angers, 15th to Reims, 16th to St. Etienne – while the last direct relegation place probably goes to Le Havre.

Places 1–3 give direct entry to the Champions League. 4th place gives qualification for the Champions League. 5th place gives a place in the Europa League, while 6th place gives qualification for the Conference League. 17th and 18th place means direct relegation, while 16th place must go into a qualification against a team from Ligue 2.

As of today, the table looks like this:

#	Layer	Matches	Point		Won	Tie	Lost	Goal	Goals against	Goal difference
1	PSG	33	81	25		6	2	89	34	55
2	Marseille	33	62	19		5	9	70	45	25
3	Monaco	33	61	18		7	8	63	37	26
4	Nice	33	57	16		9	8	60	41	19
5	Lille	33	57	16		9	8	50	35	15
6	Strasbourg Alsace	33	57	16		9	8	54	41	13
7	Lyon	33	54	16		6	11	63	46	17
8	Stade Brest 27	33	50	15		5	13	52	53	-1
9	Lens	33	49	14		7	12	38	39	-1
10	Auxerre	33	42	11		9	13	47	48	-1
11	Rennes Stadium	33	41	13		2	18	49	46	3
12	Toulouse	33	39	10		9	14	41	41	0
13	Angers	33	36	10		6	17	32	51	-19
14	Reims	33	33	8		9	16	32	45	-13
15	Nantes	33	33	7		12	14	36	52	-16
16	Le Havre	33	31	9		4	20	37	69	-32
17	Saint-Etienne	33	30	8		6	19	37	74	-37
18	Montpellier	33	16	4		4	25	23	76	-53

 

Let's take a look at tonight's matches in Ligue 1.

These are our thoughts on the final round of the series, and the tips we believe in the most are posted on the odds list. All matches will be played on Saturday 17.05.2025 with kick-off at 21.00.

Lens–Monaco

Monaco secured a place in the Champions League in the last round of the league, but still need points to pass Marseille in the table. Lens are playing for 8th or 9th place, but it seems as if they have already "taken a vacation". We imagine Monaco taking all three points today.

Form and statistics:

• Lens (home, last 5): 2–0–3, goal difference 5–10.
  Average for the season at home: 0.94 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per game.
• Monaco (away, last 5): 2–2–1, goal difference 8–5.
  Average for the season away: 1.56 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per game.

Betting tip: Away win (1.90)

Lille–Reims

Lille must have points to secure their own chance of European play. With points today, Lyon will not be able to catch up with them. Reims has a theoretical chance of being relegated, but that seems as unlikely as it could possibly be. St. Etienne is -37 on goal difference, while Reims is -13 – it would take two historic big wins for this to turn around. We imagine Lille taking this on their own turf.

Form and statistics:

• Lille (home, last 5): 4–1–0, goal difference 8–3.
  Average for the season at home: 2 goals scored and 0.94 goals conceded per game.
• Reims (away, last 5): 1-2-2, goal difference 2-4.
  Average for the season away: 0.94 goals scored and 1.25 goals conceded per game.

Odds tip: Most goals in the second half (2.12)

Lyon–Angers

Lyon need points if they are to have any hope of European football next season. After the 0-2 defeat away to Monaco, they now have one last chance – and that requires one of the three teams ahead of them in the table to lose. Should that happen, and Lyon win at the same time, they will clinch a European spot thanks to a better goal difference than their rivals.

Angers, on the other hand, has nothing to play for. They will end up somewhere between 13th and 15th place in the table anyway.

Form and statistics:

• Lyon (home, last 5): 4–1–0, goal difference 13–7.
  Average for the season at home: 2.19 goals scored and 1.31 goals conceded per game.
• Angers (away, last 5): 1-1-3, goal difference 5-8.
  Average for the season away: 0.88 goals scored and 1.13 goals conceded per game.

Odds tip: Lyon wins -1.5 (1.78)

Marseille–Rennes

Marseille, like Monaco, secured a place in the Champions League last round. Now they are playing for second place – a position they have in their own hands. With three points, no one can catch them.

Rennes has nothing to play for and will end up somewhere between 10th and 12th place anyway. There is therefore reason to believe that Marseille will take this relatively well.

Form and statistics:

• Marseille (home, last 5): 4–0–1, goal difference 14–5.
  Average for the season at home: 2.31 goals scored and 1.31 goals conceded per game.
• Rennes (away, last 5): 2–0–3, goal difference 10–8.
  Average for the season away: 1.5 goals scored and 1.81 goals conceded per game.

Odds tip: Marseille most corners -1.5 (1.85)

Nantes–Montpellier

Nantes can secure their place in Ligue 1 with points in tonight's match. They face a weak Montpellier team that hasn't won since January 26. In their last 15 matches, they have one draw and 14 losses - a dismal record of 1–1–13.

Everything indicates that this will be a comfortable victory for Nantes.

Form and statistics:

• Nantes (home, last 5): 1–2–2, goal difference 2–3.
  Average for the season at home: 1 goal scored and 1.13 goals conceded per game.
• Montpellier (away, last 5): 0-0-5, goal difference 1-10.
  Average for the season away: Scored 6 goals away (!) which gives 0.36 goals scored and 2.20 goals conceded per game.

Odds tip: Both teams to score: No! (1.96)

Nice–Brest

Nice have everything in their hands when it comes to securing European football next season. Three teams are on 57 points before the final round, and if they all win, goal difference will decide the placing. Nice have a lead of four and six goals respectively, meaning a win by two goals or more tonight will likely secure them qualification for the Champions League.

Brest are only playing for 8th or 9th place and have little to motivate themselves for. We expect Nice to win this match comfortably, with a 2–3 goal victory.

Form and statistics:

• Nice (home, last 5): 2–1–2, goal difference 5–6.
  Average for the season at home: 2 goals scored and 0.94 goals conceded per game.
• Brest (away, last 5): 1-2-2, goal difference 9-11.
  Average for the season away: 1.31 goals scored and 2 goals conceded per game.

Odds tip: Under 3.5 goals (1.67)

PSG – Auxerre

This is a match between two teams with nothing much to play for. PSG have already secured the league title and will likely rest several key players in view of the upcoming Coupe de France and Champions League finals. They are unlikely to take unnecessary risks when it comes to injuries and strain.

Auxerre, who end up somewhere between 10th and 12th place, have shown solid form away from home, however – with three wins in their last five away games. Perhaps a surprise away win is in the air tonight?

Form and statistics:

• PSG (home, last 5): 4–1–0, goal difference 8–3.
  Average for the season at home: 2 goals scored and 0.94 goals conceded per game.
• Auxerre (away, last 5): 3-1-1, goal difference 9-4.
  Average for the season away: 1.44 goals scored and 1.94 goals conceded per game.

Odds tip: Both teams to score (1.71)

St. Etienne–Toulouse

This is probably the match I am most excited about. For St. Etienne, this is a pure survival match. After a strong away win in the previous round, they must secure at least one point – preferably all three – in tonight's match.

Horneland's men are also dependent on Le Havre losing their away match against Strasbourg to even have a chance of climbing up to the qualification spot. And not only that – Le Havre should preferably lose by five goals or more.

Given that Le Havre loses, St. Etienne has two options:

1. Play for a draw and hope that Le Havre loses by at least five goals, or
2. Win tonight's match, and thus secure a qualifying spot regardless of goal difference.

Opponent Toulouse has nothing to play for and will finish somewhere between 10th and 12th place anyway. This gives St. Etienne a golden opportunity to fight away from direct relegation.

Form and statistics:

• St. Etienne (home, last 5): 1–1–3, goal difference 8–16.
  Average for the season at home: 1.36 goals scored and 1.88 goals conceded per game.
• Toulouse (away, last 5): 1-1-3, goal difference 7-6.
  Average for the season away: 1.31 goals scored and 1.19 goals conceded per game.

Odds tip: Home win (2.04)

Strasbourg–Le Havre

Strasbourg can secure European play on their own by taking points in tonight's match - on par with Lille and Nice, who are directly ahead of them in the table. If all three teams win, goal difference will be decisive. Here, Strasbourg is in the worst position, with two goals less than Lille and a full six fewer than Nice.

Le Havre, on the other hand, is playing the most important match of the season. To avoid direct relegation, they need to take points. With one point, they are dependent on St. Etienne not winning. With three points, they are completely safe – then St. Etienne cannot catch them.

It looks like an intense and goal-filled match with everything to play for at both ends of the table!

Form and statistics:

• Strasbourg (home, last 5): 4–1–0, goal difference 13–7.
  Average for the season at home: 1.94 goals scored and 1.06 goals conceded per game.
• Le Havre (away, last 5): 3-0-2, goal difference 11-10.
  Average for the season away: 1.36 goals scored and 1.75 goals conceded per game.

Odds tip: Both teams to score + 2.5 goals (1.83)

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