Deportivo Alavés - Valencia CF 14-05-2025

Can Alavés ensure survival against an in-form Valencia?

Deportivo Alavés host Valencia CF at the Estadio de Mendizorroza in a match that could be crucial for both teams' season goals. Alavés are fighting to avoid relegation, while Valencia have their sights set on a place in European competition next season.

Deportivo Alaves

Alavés are in 17th place with 35 points, just one point above the relegation zone. After a series of draws and losses, the pressure has increased to secure the necessary points. The team has shown a fighting spirit, but is struggling to translate this into victories. Captain Antonio Sivera recently stressed the importance of home games to ensure survival.

Valencia CF

Valencia have made positive progress under Carlos Corberán and are in 11th place with 45 points. With three games left in the season, the possibility of European play is still present. The team has won six of its last ten games, the remaining four games were draws. Midfielder Javi Guerra is suspended for this match, which could affect the balance in midfield.   

Previous encounters and tactics

Historically, the matches between these teams have been even. Of the last six meetings, Alavés have won three, Valencia one, and two have ended in a draw.  The last meeting ended 2–2 at Mestalla in December 2024.

Alavés will likely adopt a defensive approach, trying to stay close at the back and exploit counterattack opportunities. Valencia, with their more offensive style of play, will try to control the game and create chances through possession. The absence of Javi Guerra could give Alavés an opportunity to dominate the midfield and create an imbalance in Valencia's structure.

Alavés have struggled to find rhythm offensively for much of the season, but have been disciplined defensively, especially at home. They have only conceded 16 goals in 17 home games, which places them among the best in the league at home defensively. Their formation is often a compact 4-2-3-1, with the midfield duo working deep and aggressively to cover space. Moussa Diarra and Abdel Abqar have been central in maintaining the structure at the back.

Valencia, on the other hand, have developed into a team more comfortable with controlling the tempo. With players like Pepelu and André Almeida in midfield, they are able to build the game calmly and balanced. The absence of Javi Guerra could lead to a deeper midfield, which in turn could hamper forward movement. Up front, Hugo Duro has been their main goalscorer, but he relies on space and good crosses, which could be difficult against a deep-lying Alavés.

A key point in this match will be who gets to control the game. Alavés will likely hand the initiative to the visitors and focus on exploiting mistakes in Valencia's formation. For Valencia, it will be important to avoid small mistakes and gaps in the back line, while at the same time being patient with the ball. This can lead to a slow pace and few scoring chances, which in turn supports a subpar performance on goal.

Can Valencia break down Alavés – or will it end with a draw again?

Alavés have only scored 12 goals in 17 home games and are playing with a knife to their throats. They prioritize safety and stability at the back and have played under 2.5 goals in 9 of their last 11 at home. Valencia has been solid defensively on the road and lacks Javi Guerra centrally, which could lead to even lower risk in their own game. The history between the teams also supports low goal production. Everything points to a close and controlled match, with this in mind, we play; 

La Liga at 19:00: Deportivo Alavés - Valencia: Under 2.5 goals (1.60)

Alternative games:

La Liga at 19:00: Deportivo Alavés - Valencia: Draw at half-time. (2.05)

La Liga at 19:00: Deportivo Alavés - Valencia: Both teams score - No. (1.79)