Como – Venice 08-03-25

analysis of the teams

Como are ready to host this meeting between the two newly promoted teams, with Venezia having struggled considerably more than the home team to adjust to the pace of Serie A. With three hugely important points up for grabs, the Stadio Comunale Giuseppe Sinigaglia, located on the shores of Lake Como, will create a magical setting for the match. This will be a wonderful start to Saturday's round in Italy. 

Como – Strong on their own turf

It has been a turbulent journey since 2003, when the club was last in Serie A. Having been promoted all the way from Serie D to Serie A in just five years, the club was ready to face the best Italy had to offer before this season. Before this weekend's match, they are in 13th place with 28 points.

Como's goal difference is -10 (33-43), but even though the numbers don't look very impressive, there is still a lot of positives about this Como team. Of their last ten league matches, eight have been against teams in the upper half of the table, and they have occasionally played very evenly against big teams. Especially at home, Como have been difficult to beat. They took an impressive 2-1 home win against then league leaders Napoli at the end of February, as well as a strong 2-0 away win against Fiorentina the weekend before. Not only have they taken important points, but they have also received a solid confidence boost.

Offensively, Como have impressed. Despite a goal difference of -10, they average 1.2 goals per game. With their young and talented attacking players, they are always a threat.

Newly acquired 19-year-old Assane Diao has started with five goals in nine games, while perhaps the team's most important player, 20-year-old Nico Paz, has 10 goals so far and continues to develop after his transfer from Real Madrid last summer. Gabriel Strefezza is last, but not least, in Como's attack - the dribbling Brazilian helps form a dangerous offensive trio.

In January, the club further strengthened itself with several key players, such as Jonathan Ikoné, Maxence Caqueret – who has already become a key player in his deep-lying playmaker role – and goalkeeper Jean Butez, to name a few.

Defensively, Como have struggled more. They have conceded an average of 1.6 goals per game and have only kept three clean sheets this season. Several defenders are out with injuries and suspensions this weekend, so it will be interesting to see how they line up.

Venice – The hunt for three points continues

The away team finds themselves in a desperate situation in 19th place, below the well-known relegation zone. With a meager 18 points, it is clear that they will soon have to start winning games if they are to play in Serie A next season. 

Venezia now has a goal difference of -19 (22-41), which gives an average of only 0.8 goals per game. Top scorer Joel Pohjanpalo was sent away to Palermo in the January window, and after his exit no one has been able to fill the role of the team's goalscorer. As a result, the team has not won a football match since December 22, 2024, when they won 2-1 at home against Cagliari. Since then, they have played ten games and scored only six goals.

Defensively, Venezia concedes an average of 1.5 goals per game, and with 41 goals conceded in total, they have had challenges at the back. Although that is a lot, this weekend's opponent has actually conceded even more. The balance between goals scored and goals conceded is not good enough, and even with a five-man defense, the team is sometimes poorly organized and too many chances are created against the Venezia goal.

Still, there was something positive to take away from the matches against Lazio and Atalanta – namely the team's passion and work capacity. Venezia clearly shows that they want to keep their place in Serie A, and their efforts cannot be underestimated.

I have faith in goals

This will be an exciting match between two teams that both concede more goals than they want to. The last two meetings between these teams have resulted in a total of seven goals.

Como, who we know are strong at home and dangerous offensively, could cause big problems for this Venice team. With important pieces out of play for this weekend's match, maybe Venice can move up a bit going forward too?

Serie A at 15:00: Como – Venice: Como over 1.5 goals (1.70)

alternative bet: Total goals over 2.5 (1.90)