Colombia - Paraguay 26-03-2025

Colombia and Paraguay will meet in a crucial match in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers on Wednesday night. The match will be played at the Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez in Barranquilla, where Colombia will enjoy home-field advantage. The hot and humid climate could affect the visitors' performance, especially in the second half, when fatigue sets in.

Analysis of the teams

Before the match, Paraguay is in 5th place with 20 points, while Colombia is close behind in 6th place with 19 points. The top four teams qualify directly for the World Cup, while 5th place gives a play-off. This is therefore a key match for both teams. Colombia must win to increase their chances, while Paraguay can manage with a draw, but would prefer to secure three points to create distance from their rivals.

Colombia – Luis Díaz in form

Colombia, led by Néstor Lorenzo, are likely to play an attacking side from the start, with Davinson Sánchez in defence and a technically strong midfield to create chances. James Rodríguez will be central to distributing the play, while Luis Díaz will contribute speed and breakthrough power on the wing.

Luis Díaz has scored in four of the last ten CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers. He most recently netted in the 1-1 draw away to Brazil. In total, he has played 13 games for Colombia and scored five goals, three of which were headers – all from inside the penalty area. He is dangerous from set pieces and crosses. With James Rodríguez in midfield, who already has five assists, the chances are good that Díaz will find the back of the net again. He looks to be growing into the role on the left wing with his right foot, and could easily be the man to send Colombia to the World Cup.

Colombia have several quality players, so it's all about getting the ball into the box and creating scoring chances. Another important factor is the support of the home crowd. The stadium in Barranquilla is known for its intense atmosphere, and the fans will undoubtedly be an extra motivation for the team.

All key players are available, which gives Colombia good conditions for a strong performance, and they have the opportunity to field approximately the same team as in the away match against Brazil.

Paraguay – Wants to keep the pressure off their own goal

Paraguay are known for their solid defense, led by Fabián Balbuena. The team will likely play deep and rely on counterattacks, where Miguel Almirón's speed could be key for the visitors. Paraguay will also try to exploit set pieces, where Balbuena and Alderete are strong in the air.

Paraguay have shown they can stand up to strong attacking teams and will look to frustrate Colombia by keeping the pressure low. A key question is whether they can keep their energy levels up throughout the match, as the heat and humidity could be a challenge for the away team.

Another factor is Paraguay's discipline. They have received several yellow cards in qualifying, and an early booking for a key player could affect the course of the match.

Díaz is praised once again

Paraguay have been in good form recently, with six consecutive matches without defeat, including a strong win against Argentina. Colombia have had mixed results, but have shown strength at home, where they are unbeaten in their last five matches. The last five meetings between the teams have ended with three wins for Colombia and two draws. Colombia also won the last meeting in the 2024 Copa América with a score of 2-1.

With home field advantage, Colombia will likely dominate the match. We expect an even match with a lot of action in the box, but Luis Díaz is in great form and could be decisive again. Three of the last five matches between these teams have featured penalties, which could be an exciting alternative bet. But we also expect high temperatures, so when we get the opportunity to bet on both penalties and red cards in the same game, we launch it as a nice TV game.

Colombia will also need to be careful with defensive transitions, as Paraguay have proven effective on counterattacks. Miguel Almirón's pace and technique could cause problems for Colombia if they don't balance the team properly. However, Colombia appear to have the necessary qualities to win this match, and their ability to exploit set pieces could be crucial.

International match at 01:00: Colombia - Paraguay: Luis Díaz scores a goal (2.85)

Alternative game:

International match at 01:00: Colombia - Paraguay: Penalty or red card - Yes (2.25)