Cognizant Classic 27-02-2025

From Mexico to Florida, that's how the golfers are moving this week, specifically to Palm Beach Gardens in Florida. There they will play the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, on the PGA National Resort (The Champion Course). We covered a lot of the right things last week, but unfortunately missed the main event itself. This week the starting field is stronger than last week, and 16 of the top 50 players are here. Can any of them go all the way to the top and take home the prize money of $1,656,000?

The courses and the area

PGA National Resort (The Champion Course) is at the opposite end of the difficulty scale from last week's tournament. Where last week there were wide fairways and large greens, here you have narrow fairways and small greens. The course was built in 1981 with a Tom Fazio design, but redesigned in 1990 and 2014 by the more famous Jack Nicklaus. It stretches over 7167 yards and is played as a Par 71. There is water in play on 15 of the 18 holes and they encounter the famous "The Bear Trap" here, one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf. This applies to holes 15, 16 and 17 where you encounter water, narrow greens and often strong headwinds. So here you rarely win the tournament, but you can easily lose it. The course is played on the grass type Bermuda and there are TifEagle Bermuda on the greens which are considered to be fast to putt on in dry conditions.

Types of players who can do well here are players who thrive in the wind, those who hit accurately from the tee, are good with irons and like to putt on Bermuda grass. Then we have essentially described the perfect golfer, but Scheffler is not starting. It is also easy to miss the greens as they are relatively small, so there is no downside if you are good at scrambling either. So the question is, who in the field hits these points the best? Because no one hits them all! I probably don't have the answer to that either, but I think I have found some relevant candidates.

The candidates

• Shane Lowry is a fantastic player who has done really well this year, with a 2nd place finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in early February as his best result. In his first tournament, the Farmers Insurance Open, he missed the cut, but I put that down to a bit of game rust after a period of no play. Lowry has a tied 13th place here from 2024 and a tied 9th place here from last year, and the course suits him 31st best out of the starting field this year. Looking at the statistics, Lowry is 25th in Driving Accuracy, 68th in Approach, 44th in ATG and 68th in putting.
• Sepp Straka before this year and he won here back in 2022. Straka has played a lot this year with 6 tournaments before this one, with a win in The American Express as his best result. Otherwise, he has three top 15s besides that win, a 30th place and MC in The Genesis Invitational. Straka is very good from the Tee and the statistics say the following: 11th place Driving Accuracy, 13th place Approach, 104th place ATG and 60th place on the putting. He has delivered well this year as I said, and I wouldn't be surprised if he does it again.
• Daniel Berger is also a candidate to do well here, as he has found form in the last two tournaments with a 2nd place at the Phoenix Open and 12th place at The Genesis Invitational. Berger is good off the tee, good approach and good around the green, but he has a bit to work on when it comes to putting. He missed the cut here last year, but has a 2nd place from 2015, and 4th place in 2020 and 2022. So he thrives on this course, and with current form it could be a nice combination. In addition, he has good results on other courses with Bermuda grass on the green.
• Alex Smalley lived up to my expectations last week and I can't completely ignore him this week either. His stats are too good to pass up, and with four of his five tournaments this year in the top 21, he shows form and consistency if you ignore the MC at the Farmers Insurance Open. Smalley was a long shot to make the top 5 last week, but a tough back nine ruined it and he ended up finishing 10th. He hasn't done particularly well here before, finishing 55th in 2022 and MC last year, but I think his form and confidence make up for it.
• Denny McCarthy also has the potential to do well here with his good form and recent performances. In addition, he consistently scores well on the statistics with 74-48-54-68 Driving Accuracy-APP-ATG-Putting. And putting has been his strong point, so here he can shine in this tournament. McCarthy comes from a nice shared 5th place in The Genesis Invitational and a shared 16th place before that, so he is trending in the right direction. McCarthy also missed the cut here last year, but has a nice 3rd place from 2021. Otherwise, he has consistently struggled on this course in the past.
• Min Woo Lee is also on my radar here even though he had a bit of a tough week at Torrey Pines in The Genesis Invitational, finishing 48th. Before that, he played his way to a tied 17th place in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and a tied 12th place in the Phoenix Open. He's good off the tee, but struggles a bit from there to the green. Should he miss the green, he's very good around the green and perfectly fine with his putting. He has a 26th place here from 2023 and a 2nd place last year. Can he do just as well this year?
• Taylor Pendrith is a player who also deserves a mention for his accuracy off the tee and tee-to-green stats. Pendrith has three top 13 finishes this year, but didn't quite make it at Torry Pines in The Genesis Invitational. It's a bit of a surprise, considering he played his way to a solid 7th place at the same course during the Farmers Insurance Open. The Canadian has struggled with his putting this year, but generally thrives on TifEagle Bermuda grass, so I think he'll be able to perform well here.

Conclusion

Now I have mentioned a number of players here who I think could do well on this course, but of course there are some who excel a little more than others even though it is always difficult to choose the right one. I am between Lowry, Straka and Berger, and this time I go for Daniel Berger because of his form and average statistics. He is consistently good from tee to green where he is 4th in the PGA on SG: Tee-to-Green. He was born and raised in Florida and his form in February is nothing to talk about with 2nd and 12th place as mentioned. And just to mention it, TPC Scottsdale where the Phoenix Open was played, also has Bermuda grass. And there he was no. 2! In addition, I think the course here will suit him well. And I will not be surprised if he wins the whole tournament. So my tip this week is:

Golf at 12:45: Daniel Berger top 10 (3.80)

Alternative bets:
Golf at 12:45: Shane Lowry top 10 (3.20)
Golf at 12:45: Sepp Straka top 20 (2.25)

As usual, there will also be tips on H2H duels during the weekend, and you will find these on our Oddslisten.