Cobolli – Djokovic 09-07-2025

Overtaking or even match on the grass?

Wimbledon 2025 is nearing its climax as Novak Djokovic and Flavio Cobolli clash in a thrilling quarter-final on grass in London. Serbian Djokovic, with 24 Grand Slam titles and seven Wimbledon trophies, enters as the big favorite against the recent Italian debutant Cobolli. 23-year-old Cobolli from Florence has surprised everyone by reaching his first ever Grand Slam quarter-final. The surface is grass, a surface Djokovic masters to perfection, while Cobolli is relatively inexperienced here. The question many are asking is whether the superior weight of routine will give Djokovic an easy victory, or whether the in-form youngster can offer a dance on Centre Court.

Flavio Cobolli

Young Italian Flavio Cobolli has had a breakthrough season in 2025. Just three months ago he was ranked around 45th in the world, but an impressive spring season with two ATP titles – on clay in Bucharest and Hamburg – has catapulted him into the top echelons. These triumphs were Cobolli's first on the ATP Tour, and his confidence has grown with his ranking. After a weak start to the year, Cobolli has really found his form and arrives in the quarter-finals with a lot of momentum.

In terms of play, Cobolli is a versatile player. He is known for his quick footwork, solid fitness and good ball feel – qualities that have helped him adapt to the grass surface surprisingly well. Despite limited experience on grass, Cobolli himself has stated that he loves playing on this surface and enjoys the atmosphere at Wimbledon. He has an energetic style of play, thrives in long duels and shows a mature calm on the court despite his young age. His serve is not the hardest, but it is varied and he likes to use angles and drop shots to break up the rhythm. A potential weakness is a lack of experience on the biggest stages – this is the first time the 23-year-old has played a match so late in a Grand Slam tournament. How will his nerves hold up when he comes face to face with one of the greatest of all time?

So far in the tournament, Cobolli has impressed. In the first week, he made it relatively comfortably through the opening rounds. Among other things, he delivered a very solid match in the third round where he defeated the great Czech talent Jakub Mensik in straight sets. Cobolli dominated that match, he earned a total of 17 break points against Mensik, which is evidence of an aggressive return game and constant pressure. In the round of 16, the Italian received his biggest test to date against veteran Marin Cilic. Cobolli really had to fight, but showed impressive mental strength by pulling off a 6-4, 6-4, 6-7, 7-6 victory over the former Grand Slam champion. The fact that he won two tiebreaks against Cilic emphasizes Cobolli's ability to keep a cool head in the most critical moments. Overall, Cobolli has played fearless tennis in the tournament. He has shown no significant signs of nervousness and has really taken advantage of his opportunity. Still, the quarter-final against Djokovic is a huge leap up in level from what he has faced so far – this will be a whole new world for the Italian.

Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic hardly needs any introduction. The 38-year-old is chasing another Wimbledon title. Admittedly, Djokovic is “only” ranked No. 6 this year, after a somewhat uneven last year in which he has played fewer tournaments and lost the top ranking. Nevertheless, he arrived at Wimbledon as one of the absolute favorites. The Serb won his 24th Grand Slam title last year and possesses a routine and winning mentality that few can match. Physically, Djokovic stays in shape; despite his age, he moves brilliantly on the grass and seems to have barely lost any particular speed. It is worth noting that Djokovic likes to spare his body by playing fewer warm-up tournaments, but he uses training and experience for all it is worth. This has resulted in him often finding his peak level just when needed in the Grand Slams.

In this year's tournament, Djokovic has mostly steamrolled through the opposition as we are used to. In the early rounds, he was convincing. For example, he swept compatriot Miomir Kecmanović off the court in the third round with set scores of 6-3, 6-0, 6-4. Djokovic has not yet been really threatened; his serve has been good, and the return game - perhaps his greatest weapon, has as usual earned him early breaks that take the wind out of his opponents. In the fourth round, Djokovic faced the young Australian Alex De Minaur. There, the Serb faced a little more resistance, especially in the form of fast serves, but he controlled the match and won relatively comfortably by only dropping the opening set. But the point is that Djokovic enters the quarterfinals without much trouble, in top physical shape and full of self-confidence on this surface.

Mutually

Another point is the mutual history between Djokovic and Cobolli. The two have actually met once before, last fall. At that time, Djokovic made short work of the Italian and won 6-1, 6-2. Admittedly, it was on hard court in a best-of-three format, but the result illustrates the difference in level and experience that existed at the time. Cobolli has made great strides since last time, but now he is once again facing perhaps tennis's highest obstacle. The Serb knows exactly what is required here, both tactically and mentally, and he thrives on the pressure.

Conclusion

Djokovic is a huge favorite here, and it is difficult to imagine anything other than the Serb advancing to the semifinals relatively easily. The class difference in experience is enormous. Nevertheless, Cobolli's form curve and fighting spirit suggest that he can avoid total humiliation. The Italian has shown that he can bite the bullet in sets, and Djokovic may not need to win by the maximum margin as long as control is maintained. The main game will therefore be a handicap game where we back the challenger. This handicap allows for Djokovic to win comfortably in three sets, as long as Cobolli manages to take around 10 games or more, which we consider likely given his performance. We therefore play;

ATP Wimbledon at: 16:00: Cobolli – Djokovic: Cobolli +8.5 games (1.50)

Alternative bet:
ATP Wimbledon at: 16:00: Cobolli – Djokovic: Over 31.5 games (1.72)
ATP Wimbledon at: 16:00: Cobolli – Djokovic: Over 3.5 sets (1.96)