Chelsea W - Manchester City W 27-03-2025

Two teams that know each other well are going into the second leg that will decide who will face what will likely be Barcelona in the semi-finals of the Champions League. And after the first leg, the match is far more open than many had imagined. And that speaks in our favor.

Analysis of the teams

As mentioned, these are two teams that know each other well. One thing is that they are from the same country and the same league, but this will also be the third meeting between the teams in a good week. And while the light blues took the first stab in the Champions League match, it was the dark blues who took all the points from this weekend's important league match. But who will emerge victorious from this one?

Chelsea W – all focus on the Champions League

A lot will go wrong if the supreme league leader is not to crown the season with another league gold. Five rounds before the end they have built up a gap of a full 8 points to Arsenal and Manchester Utd, and with 15-2-0 so far this year, no one expects them to suddenly stumble in three of the last five games. And it was against today's opponent that the league gold was practically secured this weekend. Then they went home from Manchester with 1-2 and three important points.

But you don't have to go back more than a week to find another visit to the light blue part of Manchester. And it wasn't as pleasant. Because even though they had the lowest odds, the most ball and the highest xG, they lost the match 2-0. And they therefore have a very important, and demanding, job to do in the return match in London.

The home team has a wide squad, but the injury list is worryingly long. And although Sam Kerr is closer than ever, this match also comes too early for her. In addition, Bompastor will have to manage without Buchanan, Liefting, Ingle and our own Guro Reiten. The hope is that Naomi Girma and Maelys Mpome will make it to this match, but nothing is certain.

Manchester City – fighting on two fronts

Unlike Chelsea, Manchester City are fighting on two fronts. The Germans tried that between 1914 and 1918 without success, and there is a good chance that Manchester City will suffer the same fate as the losers of World War I. Because the match this weekend showed us that there is actually a class difference between these teams.

But of course, we should not take anything away from their performance in the first match. Even if the victory was somewhat fortunate, you can't explain away 2-0 against the most successful team in England. And I would be very surprised if Miedema doesn't start this match. Because the injury list is also long for the light blues, and a second-half substitution that resulted in two goals should be rewarded. Which was also the case in this weekend's league match.

But we can say with a fair amount of certainty that Knaak, Fujino, Shaw, Shimizu, Greenwood and Hemp will have to sit out this one. And then it will probably be largely the same group that started Sunday's game that will get renewed confidence here. A game City lost 1-2.

And it was a loss that cost. One thing was that they were leading the game, but lost it one minute in overtime. Because that's mentally demanding. But it was also costly in the fight for a place in next year's European Cup. Because it's reasonable to assume that it's still the number one priority for Manchester City. And with five games left in the season, and 7 points up for the important 3rd place, they can't afford to stumble. And even though 7 points sounds like a lot, they will meet Manchester Utd on May 4, before they end the season at home against the bottom team, Crystal Palace, on May 10. So hope is alive and well. In addition, it's worth mentioning that they will also play the semi-finals of the FA Cup at the beginning of May. That game is also against Manchester Utd. So for City it's about landing at least one of the many balls they have in the air right now.

Only goals that apply

The premise here is fairly simple; Chelsea must have goals. Ideally three, but with two goals the dream is alive. And we think it's reasonable to assume they can do it. They are the best team, they scored two goals away to Manchester City at the weekend in a match where they had an xG of 2.67 and they have scored a staggering 47 goals in this year's 17 league matches.

But again; cup is cup. And with a home team that has to advance, the away team can easily get a goal. But now that the league's top scorer, Shaw, is injured, it makes the away team a little less likely to score. And although over 2.5 goals to 1.80 is very tempting with this starting point, I have to admit that I fear a little what will happen if Chelsea goes up 2-0 and both teams are thus guaranteed extra time.

But there are also other bets that tempt. Because when a team is as big favorites as Chelsea is, and they have to chase to get two goals, there will be corners. We saw it yesterday with France against Croatia; same starting point, and we knew France could not give up until it was at least 2-0. And our corner bet of over 6.5 to the home team went into halftime. We will probably see much of the same here. But unfortunately there are no corner bets available. But please look for it as the match approaches.

We think Chelsea will show their class here, as they did on Sunday. And that they are the ones who will advance in the tournament. But when the home odds are at 1.55, and we know the home team MUST have at least two goals, then we find far better value in the following bets;

Champions League at 21:00: Chelsea W - Manchester City W: Over 1.5 goals to Chelsea W (1.66)