Celtic – Bayern Munich 12-02-2025

The Champions League is really starting now, and the games are really everything! Who will emerge victorious from the double clash between Celtic and Bayern, and who will advance to the round of 16 to face either Atletico Madrid or Bayer Leverkusen? I'll tell you why I think there will be goals for both teams and how to play corners tonight. It's finally time for the Champions League final for the Scots in Glasgow, after it's been 12 years since Celtic last played in a final and were swept away by Juventus (0-5 on aggregate over two legs).‍

Celtic

Brendan Rodgers' men have finally made it to the Champions League final, and it has always been a goal for Celtic to succeed in Europe. There have been many managers who have tried in recent years, but without success in Europe, so one by one they have been sacked by Celtic.

In the domestic league, Celtic are completely superior and lead the league by 13 points after 25 games played so far (21-3-1), and they have a goal difference of 73-12 (an average of 3.4 goals per game and a whopping 2.92 Celtic goals per game). At Celtic Park they are 11-1-0 and a goal difference of 40-2 (an average of 3.5 goals per game and an incredible 3.33 Celtic goals per game). Celtic are very good at home, which is also reflected in the Champions League group stage.

Celtic eventually finished 21st in the group stage with 12 points, 3-3-2 with a goal difference of 13-14. The four home matches ended 3-1-0 with a goal difference of 10-3, while the away matches ended 0-2-2 with a goal difference of 3-11 (losing 7-1 away to Dortmund). Although the opponents at Celtic Park have not been the toughest, they have still ended up with a good result. We see that Celtic is a team that likes to attack, and usually scores a lot. Average statistics at home in the Champions League are 2.5 goals, xG of 1.98, ball possession of 54%, 7.25 corners, 2.5 offsides and 1 card per match.

Bayern Munich

Bayern are tipped to make at least the quarter-finals of the Champions League, and I think most people would have guessed they would make the top 8 before the season started, especially after the first round where Bayern started extremely well with a big 9-2 win at home against Dinamo Zagreb. Then came two straight away losses against Aston Villa and Barcelona in the next rounds, where they were not at their best and were unlucky with their game plan.

In the domestic league, Bayern are also superior and lead the league with 8 points, and after 21 games played so far (17-3-1) they have a goal difference of 65-19 (which gives an average of 4 goals per game, and 3.1 Bayern goals per game) and are in great form at the moment. Away from home in the Bundesliga they have played 10 games (7-2-1) with a goal difference of 28-10 (3.8 goals per game and 2.8 Bayern goals). Bayern have been good away, but have been even better and score even more goals at home.

Bayern eventually finished 12th in the Champions League group stage with 15 points, 5-0-3 and a goal difference of 20-12, with all losses coming away from home. They finished 1-0-3 and a goal difference of 6-9. There have been some surprising losses away from home, where they were really better than their opponents (Villa and Feyenoord). The last away game against Feyenoord they lost 3-0, had a 2.52 xG, 80% possession and had 30 shots, of which only 6 were on target. I think they will avenge that game for the fans this game.

Bayern are a team that creates a lot, even on the road. In the four Champions League away games they have averaged 1.5 goals, 68% possession, 8.5 corners, 2.25 offsides and 1 card per game.

Bet suggestions

As always, both when it comes to the Champions League in general, but perhaps Bayern Munich in particular, there are many exciting betting options to choose from. So here it's all about following your gut, but also getting your gut to agree with the statistics. Here are my top suggestions;

Both teams to score (1.65):

Celtic have scored in all their home games so far in the 2024/25 season, and you have to go all the way back to the 2023/24 season to find a game where Celtic have gone goalless at home. Bayern have scored in all away games in the domestic league, and conceded goals in 6 of 10 games. In the Champions League, they have conceded goals in 6 of 8 games (4 of 4 away) and scored themselves in 6 of 8 (2 of 4 away).

Both teams to score + over 2.5 goals (1.84):

In addition to the reasons mentioned above for BTS, Celtic have 3.25 goals in total at home in the Champions League, and 3.38 in total over 8 matches. Bayern, on the other hand, have 3.75 goals in total away from home and 4 goals in total over 8 matches in the Champions League. And with numbers like that, it's time to combine these two bets.

Corners over 9.5 (1.56):

Celtic average 7.25 corners and concede 5.25 at home in the Champions League, while in the domestic league they have 10.33 and concede 3.31 corners. Of Celtic's 4 home games, 3 out of 4 have gone over 9.5 corners (15, 15, 9 and 11). Bayern average 8.5 corners and concede 2.75 away in the Champions League, but in the domestic league they average 6.70 and concede 2.20 corners. Of Bayern's 4 away games, 3 out of 4 have gone over 9.5 corners (12, 10, 9 and 14).

Alternative games can be considered:

• Celtic over 3.5 corners at 1.78
• Bayern over 6.5 corners at 1.80

Conclusion

How long will Celtic's Champions League adventure last? I'm guessing it will last about 6 more days, when the return leg is to be played on February 18 in Munich. Celtic will probably have a tough time tonight, and Bayern will probably come out victorious, but it will probably not be an easy match for the Germans as the bookmakers think. Celtic are full of confidence at home, and Bayern have struggled a bit away, look at e.g. Feyenoord away. Pure away betting at 1.39 doesn't give much value, but I think there are good chances for a
goal-rich affair, if you look at the statistics. Both teams are competent to score goals, making this an exciting match with many chances and goals.

Champions League at 21:00: Celtic – Bayern Munich: Both teams to score + over 2.5 goals (1.84)