Casper Ruud – Jack Draper 04-05-2025

We have finally reached the final between Casper Ruud and Jack Draper in the Madrid Open 2025. This is a final between a seasoned clay court expert and a young player in very good form.

Ruud should be the favorite based on surface and experience, but Draper can make the match even with his offensive play and mental momentum. We expect an exciting match with several close sets.

Casper Ruud

The Norwegian star has made a strong comeback on his favorite surface, clay. Ruud has won 11 of his 12 ATP titles on clay and has reached three Grand Slam finals. In Madrid he has shown solid play. His form seems to be improving, and the clay suits his playing style perfectly.

Jack Draper

The 23-year-old Briton has had a breakthrough season this year, winning his first Masters 1000 title in Indian Wells. Draper has impressed in Madrid, including a strong win over Lorenzo Musetti in straight sets, one of his best performances on clay so far in his career.

• Gravel statistics:

Ruud has a win percentage of 70% on gravel, while Draper is at 58%.

• Shape:

Draper has won 76% of his matches in the past year, Ruud 72%.

• Decisive sets : Ruud has won 75% of decisive sets in the past year, Draper 61%.

Betting tips and rationale

The bookmakers have Draper as their clear favorite, but I think that Ruud's experience on clay has been forgotten here, and that they have only looked at Draper's superior form recently. We can exploit this by being able to run a slightly safer bet on Ruud, but still get value. Ruud's experience on clay and his confidence in long duels give him a clear advantage. Draper is in form, but does not have the same stability on this surface, and therefore this will be my main bet;

ATP at 18:30: Casper Ruud – Jack Draper: Casper Ruud +1.5 sets (1.70)

But as I said; I think Ruud is underrated here. I don't have this as my main bet as the bookmakers gave such good odds on handicap that there was enough value there. But if someone feels like a slightly riskier bet then the following bet could be a golden nugget;

ATP at 18:30: Casper Ruud – Jack Draper: Casper Ruud wins (2.90)

And finally; Draper has come out strong in his matches and can surprise Ruud at the start before the Norwegian finds his rhythm. And that is why I am attaching this game, as an alternative to the other two;

ATP at 18:30: Casper Ruud – Jack Draper: Jack Draper wins the first set (1.53)