Canada – Finland 17-02-2025

A revenge-hungry Canada meets a Finland that got a boost in the previous match. This in the tournament called the 4 Nations Face-Off. Canada last lost to its fiercest competitor USA, and Finland won against its arch-rival Sweden. All these teams will face each other, and they have played 2 games each so far. USA is ready for the final, while the other teams are fighting for who will be allowed to try their hand in the final. We think Canada will prove that they are the better team of these two.

Canada

Canada was tipped by many experts as the best team before the tournament. But they have so far had a tougher time than expected. In the opening match against Sweden, they had to go all the way to overtime to decide against the Swedes. The match ended 4-3 after Marner put the puck in the goal on an assist from Crosby. Canada had actually not lost a match with Crosby on the field in 24 matches. But they have now done so when Canada lost to their fiercest opponent. For those who don't think these matches mean anything, we can tell you that there were 3 players from each team who were sent off within 10 seconds of the match. 3 different battle matches within such a short time, we have hardly seen since the 80s. There was a lot of emotion here. The USA then drew the longest straw, and when they scored the 1-3 goal in an open box 2 minutes before the end, Canada had to realize that they were beaten. The motivation for Canada will be that with a full-time victory in this match, they will have the opportunity for revenge in a final. That is motivation in itself. It is difficult to base the game here on statistics alone, because this is a tournament for players who play in the NHL, and in that sense we do not have a good history in the tournament. This is actually the first time since 2016 that all the best players can be there. That time it was the World Cup. But we have looked at the numbers from the NHL, and there is no doubt that this Canada team has a lot of goal points in it. In fact, they have players who are 1-4-4. in the top 5. We therefore trust that the quality is good enough to win over Finland.

Finland

Finland is the team that always tends to get a lot out of its players. But it started in the worst possible way in the opening match against the USA. They lost 6-1, and many thought they would be a throwaway in the tournament. But they fought back well when they beat Sweden after overtime. A victory that certainly tasted good. There has always been talk that Finland is the little brother to Sweden. But they were not that tonight. It also means that the team has been given the opportunity to play for the final. If they win at full time, they are assured of a place in the final. With that starting point, we can quickly have an open match. Where both teams must win at full time to be sure of reaching the final. That is where we think Finland may be at its worst. The start to the tournament was also not optimal, as 3 players had to withdraw due to injuries. So close to the tournament, this has not been positive for Finland. They are clearly weakened, especially at the back of the field. But they play as always, with their hearts on the outside of their shirts. Whether that's enough against a pressured Canada, we doubt it. The quality of this team shouldn't be good enough to beat the favorite in a direct decisive match.

Conclusion

As I said, we don't have much to go on in terms of statistics. But the game is clearly in Canada's favor in terms of quality. The odds on a win for Canada are 1.42. We think that's right, but too bad to be playable. Then we go for the variant we often use when a favorite meets a supposedly inferior opponent. We go for a handicap bet. What is guaranteed to happen in this match is that both teams are dependent on winning before full time. So let's say that Canada takes the lead, and wants to secure the result in the end. Then we will definitely get many attempts at an open goal. As we see it, there is an equal chance that this match will end with a 2-goal victory for the winning team. We go so far as to say that there will be a worse chance that this will end with a 1-goal victory than that one of the teams will win by 2 or more. So in that context, we see good value in a handicap bet on the favorite.

 

USA at 19:00: Canada wins -1.5 (1.73)