Cagliari - Fiorentina 23-04-2025

Analysis of the teams

It's set for a very interesting match in a rare Monday round in the Italian top division, Serie A. Six places separate the teams before the match at Unipol Domus, and both teams have different motivations and needs to collect points in the final sprint of the season. Cagliari boss Davide Nicola probably won't say no to three points if the opportunity presents itself for the home team - but it's not just any team they're going up against.

Cagliari – The relegation battle in the rearview mirror 

It has been a challenging season for the Sardinian side. With just a 22% win rate, it is no surprise that Cagliari find themselves in the lower half of the table. The team has 30 points and is in 15th place, just six points above Venezia who are below the relegation zone – a position Cagliari desperately wants to avoid.

There are some bright spots. In goalkeeping, Elia Caprile, on loan from Napoli, has delivered solid performances and has been an important piece in the defense. Offensively, Roberto Piccoli has been the team's leading weapon with his 8 goals this season. As a classic target striker, he thrives on crosses and plays in the air – something that fits well in the team's 3-5-1-1 formation where the wing-backs have a central role offensively. And when the stopper giant Yerry Mina makes the trip up to the opponent's box, it can really be difficult to resist.

The challenge for Cagliari lies in the balance between defense and attack. The team concedes an average of 1.5 goals per game, while scoring only 1.0. Even with a good goalkeeper and an effective striker, it is simply not enough – something that is reflected in the team's position in the table and the slim margin of relegation.

Fiorentina – A wave of purple flow 

The purple ones from Florence, for their part, can be quite happy with the development of the season. With games in the Conference League and a chance to improve on last year's table position, they still have a lot to play for. And not least – they have a striker in form.

It hasn't been a season without its challenges, but Fiorentina have impressed at times. They have beaten the likes of Atalanta, Juventus, Roma and Milan – and the list goes on. The big question is why they aren't higher up the table, and the answer is simple: inconsistency. The team has had periods of both consecutive losses and long streaks without defeat. They are now in a positive period – they haven't lost since March 9, with six consecutive matches without defeat (four in Serie A and two in the Conference League).

Unlike Cagliari, Fiorentina score an average of 1.5 goals per game and concede 1.0 – a clearly better balance. With a striker like Moise Kean, who has been involved in 20 goals this season, the team has a constant attacking threat. He now emerges as one of the team's biggest stars.

We really got to see this Fiorentina team at their very best when they shocked Juventus and won 3-0 at home. It was a real show of power, before the following week they hosted Atalanta and won that match with a resounding 1-0 victory. As mentioned earlier, the form has not stopped since then either.

Therefore, an argument can be made for an away win

To find the last time Cagliari beat Fiorentina, we have to go back to November 10, 2019 – and since then the Florentine team has had a clear advantage. Everything points towards an away win: better form, more offensive power, and a clear goal of European play. It is difficult to imagine Cagliari's defense being able to withstand Raffaele Palladino's direct and intense football for 90 minutes. Fiorentina have both the tools and the momentum to take three points in this match.

Italy at 18:30: Cagliari - Fiorentina: Fiorentina win (2.50)

Alternative game:

Italy at 18:30: Cagliari - Fiorentina: Fiorentina over 1.5 goals (2.40)