Burnley – Tottenham

Burnley host Tottenham this Saturday, and it's not necessarily the first match that you notice this round. But, if we sense any signs of value, we'll be on the ball early, and we'll also end up with a little analysis of the match. For Burnley, almost relegation-ready as they are, have really rustled their feathers in the last two league matches. From loss to loss, it was time for a match against Manchester United and Liverpool. The losing streak stopped, and they held both giants to a draw. They also scored three goals. That probably says a bit about the status of the two big clubs, but also that there's something going on in Burnley. Tottenham are guests this round, and now it's starting to look really bad. The losses are piling up, and the bottom of the table is only getting closer and closer. The injury situation is still grim, and Thomas Frank will soon be at a loss. The table is set, Burnley.

Burnley – A tiny boost in a difficult season

Because we're not going to paint a glossy picture of Burnley here, they don't hold up to Premier League standards over a full season. At least not over half a season. We'll see if they can get the ball rolling towards May, but as of now, they're standing in the mud with both feet.

It was therefore surprising that they kept Manchester United out of the game. Now it probably helped a little that the happy madness reigned in that club, but still, the performance was fine. Even stronger was leaving Anfield with a point in the following round. Liverpool placed penalties on the crossbar, blew countless big chances and dominated heavily in the field play. Nevertheless, Burnley were compact, and constantly ready for a transition. Led by footstep Anthony and Edwards were constantly a threat, and it was the latter who ensured the points. If Burnley can get the momentum of these two guys against Spurs, while the wing-backs manage to mobilize just as well once again, then points are not inconceivable this weekend as well.

Burnley are 23-42 on goal difference. The numbers indicate relegation. The only thing you can take into this match is the fact that you have risen against the big two, while also putting five past Millwall in the cup. That's eight goals in your last three games, and maybe even a little much-needed confidence.

Tottenham – Completely devoid of confidence

Self-confidence is important in football, and so is momentum. The lily-whites are struggling at the moment, and with the loss to Villa in the FA Cup they now have three straight defeats. It's not enough, and the odds of Thomas Frank's departure are almost unplayable. Rumor has it that work on his successor is well underway, and that Frank's days at the club are already numbered. Not so surprising perhaps if you just look at the results.

The lack of first-team players is still a mitigating factor. Against the Hammers last time, Kudus, Middison, Kulusevski and Richarlison were all out. It is difficult to win football matches without quality in the final third, and at the same time, all relationships and interaction are broken. Frank has not had the opportunity to play in an eleven for the whole season, and it does not seem very likely for the last half either. Someone might need to take a look at how the club trains and recovers.

Against Burnley, points are what matter. They are in 14th place, and with a little bit of a stretch for a couple of rounds, the relegation zone is dangerously close. When you are in such a situation, all matches are difficult, and away matches in the Premier League are especially tough. Unsettled opposition means you will be put to the test, and as of now, a meeting with 19th-placed Burnley probably doesn't tempt you either. Tottenham have a good head-to-head record, but I'm afraid it won't help the Londoners this Saturday. Even if it does, it won't be easy.

Conclusion – Two teams with different starting points

Burnley were not given much chance to save their place at the start of the season, so in that sense the status is not very surprising. Disappointing, yes, but not that unexpected. Making the step from the Championship to the Premier League is difficult, and if you don't hit the transfers during the summer it will be tough from the first kick of the ball. Tottenham, on the other hand, are struggling hard. Champions League football, hope of establishing themselves among the elite, and some good footballers. But, the transfer window was poor, and injuries have been numerous. Tottenham is getting up to life in the mud.

Ahead of this match, it is somewhat difficult to predict the outcome. The home team can finally get three points, while Tottenham can surprise. Basically two less likely outcomes, so what are we left with then, a draw? I would argue that it is less unlikely if all the points go to the home team. What we can feel confident about, however, is that both teams will score. Burnley have, as I said, eight goals in their last three, and against an injury-time, and somewhat tired, Tottenham, there could be both one and two here. The away team must try to improve their table situation as well, but whether they get points from it is another matter.

We land on goals for both duelists, and a HU on the coupon for those who want to try a marking variant.

No one picks more cards than Tottenham, with their 2.68 cards per match . Now Burnley is admittedly a good deal lower with 1.59 , but here the match picture and not least the referee come into the equation. Peter Bankes averages a whopping 4.33 cards per match , and in a match where; Burnley plays with desperation and Tottenham plays with tired legs and tired heads, the level of duels can quickly become high. So we believe in a match full of stops in the game, tackles, frustration – and cards.

England at 16:00: Burnley - Tottenham: Both teams to score (1.86)

Alternative game

England at 16:00: Burnley - Tottenham: Over 3.5 cards (1.86)

England at 16:00: Burnley - Tottenham: 1X (1.80)