Burnley – Manchester City

Manchester City did it. Arsenal came to visit, and had to go home without a point. Exactly what Pep needed. But it wasn't easy. Arsenal were good at times, and the home team had the posts on their side. The result, however, means that City are level with Arsenal if this one is won, and suddenly overtaken on goal difference. That's how quickly things turn. City is a monster in the spring, and if they get the gold rush then you have to make minimal mistakes to keep them from living. Arsenal unfortunately makes a bit too many mistakes for their fan base when it all comes down to it. Burnley also makes mistakes. There have been so many mistakes this season that next season will be found in the Championship. As of now, only theory is keeping the team up, but soon that will also be a thing of the past. City have the gold to play for, and both points and goals are worth just that now – gold.

Burnley – It became too difficult

We won't spend too much space writing about this Burnley team, and where it all went wrong. Because there are quite a few places. The team wasn't good enough. Part of the identity last year was the goalkeeper, Trafford. The last chance was absolutely outstanding in the promotion, and the man set record after record in terms of clean sheets. This is noticed, and as of today this man is sitting on the bench for Manchester City. Without such a goalkeeper, Burnley obviously loses a lot. Much more than just clean sheets, they lose their soul and way of playing, and have to build something new. It's difficult when you get promoted, but at the same time you lose important pillars in the process.

In addition to conceding too many goals, they also don't score enough. Worst in the league at the back, second worst up front. The total then reads 33 goals in the red, only beaten by Wolves, who are already ready to take the elevator down a notch. Burnley were at the wrong level this year.

The form is also nothing to brag about. The losses come in succession, and they are of that kind. Last time Nottingham was so much too good, and inflicted a 1-4 on Burnley. This is far from a one-off. Unfortunately, there is not much left for Wednesday's hosts to play for. They are relegated, and it will be difficult to put together a completely magical performance against Manchester City. At least they would have fought tooth and nail, but no, the defeat is a reality. In the reverse fixture, the light blue won 5-1. I wonder if the scoreboard shows something of the same on Wednesday at bedtime.

Manchester City – Obstacles are overcome with the utmost naturalness

We wrote about it in the analysis of the match against Arsenal. City are good at winning. Once you have cracked this code, it is as if there is an inner belief in the team that we can do this, no matter how close it gets. You saw it in Haaland when he walked off the pitch at the weekend, smiling and singing to the camera – the self-confidence and belief in this is high. With good reason, City have done this so many times now. Last year's season is probably more or less forgotten, and the trophy will be brought home from Liverpool. A perfect time for Pep to give up? We will see.

But, of course, this is far from decided. Arsenal still leads. City must keep up the heat, and preferably win all the matches. Even then, this could end up tied on points. That's when matches like this are extra important. You can, in a way, get an extra point by adding a large number of goals to the total. We mentioned it above here, City won this match in the autumn with 5-1. That's exactly what you need now too. Four plus goals would have given the light blues the small advantage they need.

The team is ticking like a well-oiled machine by day. Haaland is finding form, Guehi has been a reinforcement, Cherki is playing football, Semenyo and Doku are creating speed and power, while Rodri and O'Reilly are two of the league's best in their positions. The total is a team that has just about everything. Yes, they didn't have everything in this year's Champions League, but it doesn't seem like the league restart is coming at the best possible time. Nico O'Reilly is simply a find. Close to player of the year, and if he isn't crowned the best of the best yet, it's probably just a matter of time. A complete player. Guys like Foden can look far for playing time with this guy at the front of the queue.

City beat Burnley. They're not stumbling now. Burnley are resigned, while City should ideally win big. We know from experience that Pep likes to get what he wants.

Conclusion – City wins by at least three

We believe the away team will take early command, and also an early lead. As soon as this is a fact, it may be difficult for the hosts to hold their heads high enough. With a loss here, it's over, and it is pure utopia to believe that this will end with anything other than a reasonably clear away win. For City, winning 2-0 is not enough. Yes, the points are most important, but Pep knows that the goals can be decisive, so here they will probably fight for scores until the final whistle.

The away team also have the opportunity to get back on their feet with half an hour left on the clock. The quality of the bench is enormous, and if this is 0-2 after 60 minutes, eager substitutes will still be able to provide abacus figures at the end. Burnley will have difficulty staying the course, as we have unfortunately seen several times in their case recently.

With a clear away win here, it's a rat race all the way to the door. There will be some fierce league rounds until the end of May, and we promise you to be on the ball in all these games, constantly searching for what we think is good value. Right here and now, the value lies in backing the visitors, and their fierce desire for another league championship.

England at 21:00: Burnley – Manchester City: City to win -2.5 goals (2.10)

Alternative game

England at 21:00: Burnley - Manchester City: Over 1.5 goals in the 1st round (1.94)