Bundesliga – Season End – 17.05

When the final whistle has blown in the 3rd League matches, full focus is on the Bundesliga finale. We have intense battles ahead of us for European places as the main focus, as the bottom positions have been decided (as long as Hoffenheim does not lose by rough numbers and Heidenheim at the same time wins by solid numbers). The title has already been awarded to Bayern Munich as many times before. Leverkusen was a bit too small, and gave up too many points throughout the season. In addition, we have had periods with teams that have really pleased: Mainz 05, Werder Bremen, Augsburg, Freiburg and Dortmund. At the same time, all of these teams have also been down in the dumps. Dortmund was on a wild ride for a while and was unable to win anything away from home. Werder Bremen suddenly lost to everything and everyone. Mainz 05's defensive structure and tactical construction method were suddenly seen through by everyone and collapsed. Augsburg had been on a long streak of keeping a clean sheet and started looking towards a European place before that balloon burst to such an extent. Leverkusen have shown tactics like they did last year when everything looked lost before they pulled themselves together again long in overtime – Leverkusen fans should certainly not have heart problems. The charm was great in getting Holstein Kiel up to the Bundesliga, but here it was with one season. It quickly became clear that they did not keep up the level. VfL Bochum, who the undersigned believes should have been relegated last year, is now relegated. They are at the very bottom and have not won since March 8. There has been little joy for the Bochum fans with only 5 wins in 33 games. The joy to look forward to may be next season's derby against Schalke 04. Wolfsburg and Stuttgart have played roller coaster football – at times very good and real candidates at the top to a miserable game. Stuttgart in particular have been difficult to maneuver this season – here you really do not know what you are getting. For example, the 3-0 lead against Leverkusen that ended in a 3-4 loss, or the 4-4 match against Union Berlin, or the 5-1 loss against Red Star in the Champions League. The team's abilities are certainly there, but the stability has been absent. Borussia Mönchengladbach has shown good tactics, but is a mid-table team – 4 losses in the last 5 with 10-15 testifying to a team that has little structure. The season has been memorable, as it often is in the Bundesliga. The Bundesliga logo was recreated by Kane, who finally gets to lift a trophy, and he has scored goals on the way to the Meisterschale. He has 25 goals before the last match of the year, with Guirassy behind him with 20 goals. The Golden Boot will go home to the Englishman on the trophy shelf. Let's turn our eyes to the matches on our national day:

Augsburg–Union Berlin

First up is an insignificant match. Augsburg, who have long had a solid defensive structure and players with bigger and bigger chests, have recently shown that this was temporary. There was a crushing 4-0 loss last weekend against Stuttgart, and in the previous home match against Holstein Kiel they were humiliated 1-3. They certainly had enough chances here, and Holstein Kiel were effective, but 3 behinds are difficult to defend. The trend is showing again in the last 5 matches, 1 win (a narrow 2-1 against Bochum), 1 draw and 3 losses, with a 3-10 goal difference. The six matches in a row of keeping a clean sheet are long forgotten. There was a real chance at that time that Augsburg would do something big this season, but they are dabbling in mid-table with a solid minus on goal difference. Not much will come of this match and it will again be about giving the fans something to enjoy at the end that must mean the most to the players. The injury list is also long, in addition Essende is suspended. Union Berlin has had a difficult season, but they have rowed themselves into it somewhat recently. There have been 4 draws and 1 loss, but the last home game of the year ended with a 0-3 loss against Heidenheim, which sticks deep in the hearts of Union fans. With 4 draws and 1 loss, it has been quite goal-rich, 7-10 in goal difference. Union's injury list is also quite long. In other words, we look at Augsburg with over 2.5 goals in 3/5 last games and Union Berlin with the same number. When the teams met in January, Augsburg took the scalp with a solid 2-0 win. How do different bets look? We get 1.62 in odds on over 2.5 goals. BTS we get 1.53. But none of these bets jump out as a clear candidate. Marking bets also show that the bookmakers do not know where this match should be placed. Corner bets at Union have been a bit of a draw this season, over 3.5 corners have been given at good odds and gone in on several occasions. Now we have to go up to over 4.5 corners to get value, as at 1.94 in odds and recent form does not support it.

It is not easy with such matches when you have to find valuable bets. Goal bets are risky, both teams scoring is also risky. With long injury lists in both squads, it is possible that we will see youngsters getting a chance in this match. Under bets can be considered, under 2.5 goals to 2.26 can certainly be considered, but both defenses are a bit on the back foot at the moment, suddenly we get a goal spree. You can consider under bets at half-time, for example under 1.5 goals to 1.56 . The odds are not very tempting on that, but perhaps it must be considered for two uninspired teams. What is interesting is the card game here, both teams average high in that sense. Both Augsburg and Union average over 2 cards per match, and if it were not for the unavailable odds at the time of publication, it would have been a highly topical main bet. Look at the odds for card games before the match starts, preferably over 3.5 cards in total or over 1.5/2.5 (depending on the odds) on the teams individually. We have to take a different direction anyway and give Union Berlin a handicap of +1. They have held solid teams to a draw recently, while Augsburg has shown very little of their good sides in the last 3 matches. The bet here is therefore:

Union Berlin +1 (1.75) – 3/10 units

 

Borussia Dortmund - Holstein Kiel

Here Holstein Kiel will have a tough time – this will be a tough last match to round off the season against a Borussia Dortmund in brilliant form and with every reason to step up from the first whistle. And there is nothing to suggest that Holstein Kiel will get anything out of this match, and then the odds will come. Holstein Kiel actually won the return match 4-2, but that is long forgotten and form curves have changed drastically since then. Here we have to dig a little. And when we dig a little we find several exciting alternatives.

Let's start with the home team. They have turned the form curve around to the extreme in the last month. They have climbed the table and are fighting to take the important 4th or 3rd place that gives Champions League games next season - the Europa League will be disappointing. But ultimately, the season, seen as a whole, has not been good enough even though the form curve in the final stretch has been very impressive. The Europa League place is by all accounts secured, so here only 3 points and as many goals as possible matter - as is often the case anyway at Signal Iduna Park - here they attack. In the last 5 (league games) Dortmund have 4 wins and 1 draw (against Bayern). The goal difference has been impressive here with 16 - 9. They have scored 3 goals or more in all the wins, and it was 2 against Bayern. During the season they have left the field with a clean sheet 6 times, and one of these came in the last home game against Wolfsburg. And here is the first bet to look at: Borussia Dortmund win and keep a clean sheet at 2.10 odds . But, it is not that this Holstein team does not know where the goal is – quite the opposite. They have scored in all of their last 5 games, and in the last 3 games, all against good opposition, there have been 8 goals and 8 conceded. And let’s not forget, as previously mentioned, their 4 last time they faced Dortmund. They are efficient and take their chances and we get over 0.5 goals to Holstein Kiel at 0.74 odds . And maybe they only need that one chance to get that one goal, which again moves us to another option: BTS, which is available at 1.78 odds and is not a bad option at all. With these bets we always assume that Dortmund will score – that they will not score here is so unlikely that it is not worth the thought. Where we should also move is over to handicap betting, because here we get some exciting options: Dortmund -2 is available at 1.67 odds , a nice opportunity. But, we have to go back to March 29th to find the last time Holstein lost by more than 1 goal. And then we can give Holstein a push here with Holstein Kiel +3 which is available at a whopping 2.20 odds . Are we so sure that Dortmund will beat Holstein 4-0 here? Finally, we have to look at the goal scorer and penalty taker Guirassy. But here we can quickly look further, because he scores at a meager 1.33 odds. That Guirassy scores 2 or more is available at 2.60 , an exciting goalscorer bet but not where we land. We dare to embark on a handicap bet in favor of Holstein Kiel, they have only lost by 4 goals or more once this season, early in the fall against Bayern Munich. There is a lot at stake for Dortmund and little for Holstein Kiel, but this one must be tried at odds that are too tempting. But, by all means, there are many good alternatives here, so this is written in bold: look over which alternatives you like best and choose from there . PS! +4 in handicap for Holstein is still available at 1.55, it is definitely within and can be combined with another low-odds bet. The main tip from this report is:

Holstein Kiel +3 (2.20) – 4/10 units

 

Borussia Mönchengladbach – Wolfsburg

Another match of zero importance is Mönchengladbach – Wolfsburg. Both teams are in terrible form and both teams end up in no man's land. In addition, the injury list is quite long in both squads, so this will be a match that is difficult to navigate from an odds perspective. Both teams have scored the same amount this season (55) and only 2 goals differ in the number of goals conceded (56 and 54). In the last 5, Gladbach has over 2.5 goals in 4/5 and has conceded 2 or more in all matches. They have found the net in 4/5 and have mostly goals in them considering their poor form. Wolfsburg, on the other hand, has over 2.5 in 4/5 but has gone goalless in 2 of the last 5. They have also conceded 2 or more in the last 4/5. The teams can therefore match each other on most levels – they are evenly matched before kick-off and this is reflected in the odds. We don't even get good value in BTS + over 2.5 goals (1.45). We have to go up to BTS + over 3.5 goals to get real value (1.92), but maybe we have to look at other ways here. And here it will be a bit short and brutal process, because Gladbach scores at home and they will have a little extra fuel in them to give the fans a good performance in the last league match. We ignore that Wolfsburg won the second leg 5-1, then Wolfsburg was in brilliant form, but it has been a long time since they have delivered games like that. Reflected with a poor Volkswagen Arena in the last home match last weekend. The game here will be:

Borussia Mönchengladbach over 1.5 goals (1.58) – 5/10 units

 

FC Heidenheim - Werder Bremen

Mathematically, Werder Bremen can take the important 6th place, but with -6 in goal difference against Mainz +12, the reality is different. This is not possible, but the fans can still reconcile themselves to a good season from Bremen this year. They travel to Heidenheim with their shoulders down and can play their game without any form of pressure. There is pressure in Heidenheim. They have struggled throughout the season, but took an extremely important victory last weekend to keep the fight to avoid relegation alive. For now, they are there, and most likely they will be there, but here the mathematics is a little milder: 6 goals separate them from Hoffenheim above them. The result is that it must be eaten up, Heidenheim must win and Hoffenheim must lose, preferably by some ugly numbers. It can certainly happen, because they will be visited by Bayern Munich. So hope is definitely in place in Heidenheim and here they must give their very best in their last attempt.

Heidenheim comes into this match with an upward form and has kept a clean sheet in 3 matches in a row. Before that it was 0-4 against Bayern and 0-3 against Frankfurt, but that has been forgotten. Werder Bremen, on the other hand, has 3 straight draws and has kept a clean sheet in 2 of these. Before that there were 2 wins and we have to go back to March 15th the last time Werder lost. The framework for that match predicts that Heidenheim must attack, which will open up counterattacking space for Werder who can play their game. That opens up for BTS, and it is clear with the bookmakers with 1.48 odds. Furthermore, we have to look at goal bets, over 2.5 goals. It has happened in the last 3/5 at Heidenheim and 2/5 at Werder. However, when the teams met in the autumn we were served a very entertaining 3-3 match, also with the premise that neither team was in any scoring form. BTS + over 2.5 goals is available at 1.68 . It actually sits pretty well, taking the framework into consideration and setting aside recent form and especially scoring form. A bit of a look at corner statistics and tendencies towards this match has been taken, but with an unclear trend it feels a bit risky. There will be chances here and shots on target, but here too the trend is unclear and the odds do not give value in relation to the number. We move into what is considered safer ground and go for the following:

Both teams to score + over 2.5 goals (1.68) – 4/10 units

 

SC Freiburg - Eintracht Frankfurt

What can be considered the definite highlight of this weekend is when Freiburg hosts Frankfurt in the battle for Champions League places. Both teams hold these places before the round kicks off and both teams want to keep these places - here tactics and cynical play will come into view - that's guaranteed. Freiburg is playing for a very special occasion: retaining the CL place will mean CL participation for the first time in the club's history. It will be a damp evening in Freiburg. Eintracht Frankfurt has had a stable season, with a few banana peels, but is fully focused on getting at least 1 point from this match, preferably 2. They are well aware that a loss here, in addition to Dortmund's victory, could mean that they end up in 5th place and another season of Europa League games. And it is with somewhat high shoulders that they come here, because they know that Freiburg is in brilliant form, while they themselves have wavered somewhat recently and only have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. The last two have ended in draws against Mainz 05 and St. Pauli, respectively, so the level must be turned up several notches against a heroic Freiburg.

Freiburg have done the job recently against manageable opposition, in addition to a draw against Leverkusen (a game they would rather forget, where they conceded goals in the 83rd and 90+3 minutes of play). The big main difference here is that they know they should preferably take all 3 points, a draw can quickly become costly and lead to a Europa League spot. They are playing with -2 in goal difference, and there is an ocean behind both Eintracht Frankfurt and Borussia Dortmund around them. However, they have an injury-free squad full of self-confidence and good faith that they can do this against a Frankfurt team that is missing, among other things, the important Tuta in defense and Götze in the middle.

Eintracht Frankfurt has shown its best and not quite that good lately. With 2-3-0 in the last 5 it is perfectly fine, but the point loss last weekend against St. Pauli should have been avoided to make this weekend's match less exciting. In addition, we have to go back to March 16th the last time Frankfurt won away, against Bochum. Frankfurt's season has certainly been characterized by solid performances at home (PPG 2.00 and +19 in goal difference) versus away (PPG 1.44 and +1 in goal difference). When we also have a Freiburg that thrives well at home, this can be tough. The last time these two met, Frankfurt won 4-1, but then it must be said that Freiburg was in a miserable period. They are not now.

The favorite stamp goes in favor of Freiburg. Marking is too risky here, but there are goals in the team. In the last 4/5 there have been two goals or more, and Frankfurt conceded two against St. Pauli last weekend and can quickly go for a bang here against a hero-burning Freiburg. A side tip here is Freiburg over 1.5 goals at 1.82 in odds . But the main tip is the belief that both teams will find their way to the net and that we will see more than 2 goals. It has happened in the last 4/5 for Freiburg, but with the reservation that the statistics are not included for Frankfurt (BTS in 2/5 and over 2.5 goals in 2/5). Still, this is a very important match, Frankfurt is missing two key players and Freiburg is solid at home. This will be unlike the recent matches Frankfurt has had. The game will therefore be:

Both teams to score + over 2.5 goals (1.72) – 4/10 units

 

Hoffenheim - Bayern Munich

When the newly crowned champions from Munich come to Hoffenheim, it's all about damage control from the home team and party football from the away team. Hoffenheim can afford to lose here, but they shouldn't let it slide too long with a postponed goal difference. Bayern, on the other hand, have no more games left in the season as they crashed out of Europe, and so they could easily end up with their strongest squad here. It's never good to say at the end of the season what managers are thinking and we could soon see youngsters in the starting line-up who could change the game somewhat. Hoffenheim will be playing with their strongest gun anyway and will use the 4-2 victory at the end of last season as inspiration to get a usable result here.

As is often the case with Bayern, you have to tweak the odds a bit, it's not usually very exciting. But here it doesn't take too long to find something that works: a handicap advantage Hoffenheim. Hoffenheim has been a lot better at home this season and scores more here. Recent form isn't too bad either: 1-2-2 with a 12-12 goal difference. Now it must be said that they were surprised 5-0 in Munich, but the starting point for this match is somewhat different, with a Bayern that has no pressure hanging over them. Still, Hoffenheim's defense is not impressive these days. Bayern comes from 3-2-0 in the last 5 with a 14-5 goal difference. In 3 of these matches they have kept a clean sheet, although against somewhat weaker opposition (including Heidenheim and Mönchengladbach). Against Leipzig they were 3 behind and against Dortmund they were 2.

Both teams are struggling with injuries. Bebou is still out for the home team, which is a big loss. In addition, Orban, Kabak, N'soki and Gendrey are out. Bayern's injury list is no less with Davies, Upamenco, Ito, Musiala, Stanisic and Kim all out for this match. But it is no secret that Bayern have a wider squad and can cover for the losses.

As mentioned at the beginning, we get good value on Hoffenheim +2 at 1.73 odds . But another place to look is pure goal betting. It has been very goal-rich for both lately, and there is no reason why it shouldn't be again. In Hoffenheim's last 5, 4/5 have ended with over 3.5 goals, while for Bayern, 3/5 have ended with over 3.5 goals. We therefore move on to the following bets here:

Over 3.5 goals (1.64) – 5/10 units

 

Mainz 05 – Bayer Leverkusen

Mainz is fighting an intense battle to keep their Europa place. The carrot here is to try for the Europa League place that Dortmund holds, while they must not let go of the Conference League place. Leipzig is behind them on points, but with a poor goal difference. Mainz has no one but themselves to thank for this, they were in both 3rd and 4th place for a long time and played solidly, until a real dip in form at the end of March. Since then, there has only been one poor win in 7 games. The one win came last weekend against Bochum, which was already lost. They did hold Frankfurt to a draw the weekend before that, but what Mainz saw earlier in the season bears little resemblance to what we see now. Leverkusen, on the other hand, has finished playing and is in 2nd place. They have had to say goodbye to both Tah and Alonso, in what was a sour ending at home with a 2-4 loss to Dortmund.

Mainz's form curve shows 1-2-2 and 7-9 in goal difference. Leverkusen stands with 1-3-1 and 7-7 in goal difference. If anything, it is Mainz who needs to change focus here and come out with full fire. It took a long time before it broke loose against Bochum last weekend, but once it broke loose, it was 4-1 in the end. It must be believed and assumed that the Leverkusen squad will give Alonso a worthy finish here. And Tah will be fully prepared to contribute to that. Although it has mostly been even between these, including in the fall when Leverkusen won 1-0, my gut feeling says that this could quickly become goal-rich. An early Leverkusen goal could lead to Mainz in greater panic mode, and the match could really open up. Both teams are coming from over 3.5 goal matches, and when it unravels, it can really unravel. It is tempting with over 3.5 goals at 2.20 in odds , but we are adjusting down a bit with both teams scoring and us getting over 2.5 goals:

Both teams to score + over 2.5 goals (1.65) – 5/10 units

 

RB Leipzig – VfB Stuttgart

RB Leipzig enter this match knowing that they could still qualify for Europe next season if they do the job against Stuttgart. The Europa League is probably out of the question, because the goal difference is too bad, but the Conference League is certainly within reach if Mainz stumbles against Leverkusen. Stuttgart, on the other hand, does not have much to play for and would prefer to avoid injuries before the important cup final against Arminia Bielefeld in a week. Without speculating too much, it is easy to imagine that Stuttgart will spare some of the most important players here to reduce the risk of injury.

Both teams are in absolutely fine form. Leipzig are 1-3-1 in their last 5 with a 7-10 goal difference. Last weekend they drew 0-0 away against Bremen, and here Leipzig escaped with a scare. Stuttgart have shown better tactics in the last 2 games, where they won 4-0 against Augsburg last weekend and 1-0 against St. Pauli the weekend before. But what reflects Stuttgart this season is heaven and hell. They can play excellent football at times followed by clumsy football. 4-4 against Union Berlin and 3-4 against Leverkusen are the best examples of that. It has been difficult to make a smart bet on Stuttgart this year, and what has been considered safe betting tips have suddenly been a dud. It has often been at home Stuttgart has shown its worse side, with somewhat more stability away. Leipzig showed a solid defensive structure for a long time and played a brilliant autumn season. It fell apart a bit over the winter break, which has been characterized by many draws and loss of points.

With a difficult starting point for the match, both in terms of marking, goals and starting line-up, we choose to look towards corners. The main reason for this is that Leipzig has to move forward. When we look at Leipzig's average this season, it is 6.19 corners at home, with a total of 4.73 (i.e. pulled down significantly on away matches). In the last 5 they have an average of 4.8 and a match average of 13! Stuttgart, on the other hand, averages 4.25 on away matches with a total of 5.21. In their last 5, it has been 5.8 on average and a match average of 9.4. If we look at the matches these two have met earlier this season (DFB Pokal and league games), it shows 10 in the DFB Pokal (5 each) and 5 in the return match (5 to Stuttgart). With that we get over 10.5 corners at 1.98 odds and over 5.5 corners to Leipzig at 1.95 odds . For Stuttgart we get over 4.5 at 1.87 odds. We adjust down a bit and go for the following bets:

Over 9.5 corners (1.62) – 6/10 units

 

St. Pauli – VfL Bochum

The last match on the list is that of the insignificant battle. St. Pauli manages to survive and get another season in the Bundesliga, while Bochum has been relegated to the 2nd Bundesliga for several league rounds. And there is not much joy to be seen in Bochum at the moment. One loss after another with a few glimmers of light in the form of a draw. The last victory for Bochum goes back to March 8, when they impressively turned 0-2 to 3-2 against Bayern Munich itself. That was probably the one glimmer of light this season, otherwise it has been quite pitch dark in Bochum. For St. Pauli it has been a season as expected where every single point has been a fight for survival. But St. Pauli has occasionally impressed and proven difficult to beat at home. Here they have taken points against, among others, Leverkusen, Leipzig, and Wolfsburg. Essential points when you get to the end of the season.

What immediately pops up when these two teams are on the schedule is underplay. We know that little is scored when these are involved. The previous match ended 1-0 to Bochum and in the last 5, St. Pauli has Under 2.5 goals in 3/5 matches, while Bochum has the same in 3/5 too. Now both are coming from goal-rich matches, but we take into account that St. Pauli has a terribly long injury list. And Bochum is far down and has little joy in their game. Under 2.5 goals is available at a whopping 2.30 in odds here , and it is tempting. Especially when St. Pauli has 5 goals in the last 5 and Bochum has 3 goals in the last 5. Another exciting high-odds alternative is a draw at 4.30 in odds . We may soon see it here, but the favorite stamp is of course on Bochum.

Let's hope the undersigned is wrong when predicting a boring and goalless match. As for the odds, we hope for the right crystal ball. We go for the following bets:

Under 2.5 goals (2.30) – 3/10 units

 

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