Analysis of:

Bryne – Viking – 27-07-2025

Anders

Written by: Anders

Analysis Information
Sport
Tournament
Elite Series
Match start
27/07/2025 14:30
Units
5 / 10
Odds

1.67

For over 20 years, Jæren has been waiting for one of the country's best derbies. The dark blue part of Jæren travels down to the red part. Friends, colleagues and family are divided for 90 minutes. Viking flags will characterize Stavanger, while Bryne is colored red. The farmers are very ready to accept the fiff from the city. The match was sold out in minutes and has been talked about for months. This will be one big party day from start to finish, with two teams that will spare no effort!

Bryne – back in good company and they mean business

Bryne has not made life easy for any team that has visited them this year. It is at home that they will take the points to build on the team that will remain in the Eliteserien, this is also clearly reflected in the statistics. PPG 1.86 at home and 12-11 in goal difference, while they are left with one poor win (PPG 0.71) and 8-13 away. Apart from the loss last weekend against Tromsø, there is nothing to say about the form of the home team, before that they were 4-3-0 and 13-9 in goal difference. Apart from that, Bryne has now scored in 8 games in a row. And it is almost unthinkable that they will not score on Sunday.

Moreira has been by far the strongest player in Knappen's squad this year. He has 6 goals and 4 assists, and is well supported by striker Scriven with his 3 goals and 2 assists. Kryger has also done his job well in midfield, but overall it is the Bryne collective that is strong. It is a close-knit group that sacrifices everything for each other, which is clearly reflected in the matches. The duel game is high, second balls must be won, and with that also comes the cards. At home, the average is 1.86 cards per match, 1.71 overall. This was exactly the case for Sødal last weekend, where he made a penalty kick and received a yellow card - thus he will miss the derby. Besides that, Svindland is still out, and Bryne can therefore field its best team besides Sødal.

The preparations have been good at Bryne. The button is clear in its speech: on Sunday it will be a blast! The marketing department has done its job well, as they have all season. And it is not inconceivable that Bryne's best will possibly be rewarded with fresh eggs, cabbage, potatoes and carrots here!

Viking – The Reality Check has announced its arrival

If Viking had traveled to Bryne a little over a month ago, the starting point for the match might have looked a little different. Then the dark blues seemed unbeatable and had come with a somewhat larger chest than is the case now. 3 losses in a row in Norwegian play have been made. A tough loss against Sarpsborg was followed by two very deserved losses against Brann and Bodø/Glimt. A solid lead at the top has been eaten up and things suddenly look a little different. But Jensen and Lunde Aarsheim are clear in their speech: the losses change nothing, there is a long way to go in the season and there will be some mistakes along the way. In addition, this is a derby everyone, including the coaches in both camps, has been waiting for an incredibly long time. Then fast form has little meaning.

Viking has performed more or less as well away as at home this year with a PPG of 2.00 and a goal difference of 18-12. The away losses have been identical: 3-1 against Vålerenga and Brann. And the form has been declining, but the upturn was solid in the Conference League qualification where they did not give up until it was 7-0. Several players got on the scoresheet and in that sense this was a perfect recharge for the derby, even though the rest days are shorter. It will be extremely important that Tripic brings the whole team with him on Sunday and delivers to the extent that his form has been this season. Christiansen has done his job well recently, but it will probably be the local players who feel this the most. Those who have grown up with the rivalry. We doubt we will see a repeat of the 1st half against Brann here, then it will be the first bus straight home for everyone.

The preparation for Viking was a match they were fortunately able to let off the gas pedal for. The return match in Slovenia will strictly speaking only be a short vacation. The focus has been on Bryne all week and they travel down with one focus and that is to take all the points.

Where do we end up after 20 years of waiting?

That both teams score here feels almost like a guarantee. In 4 of Bryne's 7 home matches both teams have scored, while in 6 of Viking's 8 away matches the outcome has been the same. Overall, Bryne and Viking are at the top of the BTS table with Viking's 71% and Bryne's 64%. Viking's matches are also mostly goal-oriented, 12 of 17 matches have ended with over 2.5 goals this season, 5 of 8 away, while for Bryne's part, 4 of 7 home matches with over 2.5 goals and 8 of 14 overall can be said. We are very familiar with the corner statistics, at least for Viking's part. They have produced quantities of another (corner) world this year. The average has dropped somewhat recently, but it is still at a solid 5.63 away. Bryne gets 3.86 corners per game, but here we may have to think a little differently. It is a bit difficult to imagine that it is Viking who will be the dominant team that will give pressure after pressure. It is more likely that this game we will swing back and forth, where we may get somewhat less corners. Furthermore, it is interesting to look at free kicks and cards here, of course because a derby with ignition is expected but also with Bryne's playing style in mind. Bryne gets an average of 12.57 free kicks against them per home game. Viking is actually not far behind with its average of 11.63 on the away field. If we then look at what we get on the card front, Bryne, as mentioned above, averages 1.86 per home game, while Viking is at a whopping 2.25 away. Bryne's last 3 games have averaged 3.33 cards overall, while Viking is at a whopping 5.33 overall.

With that, we have some good options ahead of us. What do the bookmakers offer? Both teams to score can be picked up for a safe 1.55. And it is a perfectly good bet that can be combined nicely with one of the weekend's other matches, and it should definitely be a safe bet. Over 2.5 goals goes somewhat higher at 1.59, and combined we get this at 1.89. BTS + 2.5 goals is definitely tempting at that odds. If we look at corner kicks, we have to go up to over 10.5 to get something left with 1.67 in odds. For the teams individually, over 4.5 corners are available to Bryne for 2.05 and over 6.5 to Viking for 1.84. Decent bets, but perhaps not entirely tempting considering both statistics, predicted match picture and other selections. Over 3.5 cards we get at 1.67. If we take recent statistics into account, and back it up with the fact that it is a derby, this is tempting as a main bet. We expect a high level of excitement. Neither team wants to lose this and will sacrifice everything to avoid just that. We therefore go the way of the card game:

Eliteserien at 14:30: Bryne – Viking: Over 3.5 goals (1.67)

Alternative games:

Eliteserien at 14:30: Both teams to score (1.55)

Eliteserien at 14:30: Both teams to score + over 2.5 goals (1.89)

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