Brisbane Roar W – Melbourne City W 26-03-2025

A lean international week is saved by Australian football on a Wednesday. And we think we've potentially found gold.

Analysis of the teams

When Brisbane Roar take on in-form Melbourne City, we believe it will be an entertaining and exciting match where both teams need all the points. City to secure 1st place, while Brisbane to secure a place in the playoffs.

Brisbane Roar – A sinking ship

With one point in their last five games, little is going right for the home team. Brisbane show up for game after game, but fail to deliver the quality expected of teams in the A-League.

It's a bit incredible what a turnaround this team has taken since the league started in the fall. The orange team started the league with a bang. They delivered good results, and the home team looked for a long time like a team that could fight for 1st place in the table. This would not last long.

The team now has 25 points, just enough to reach the playoffs, for now. They are in 6th place in the table. A place that is rewarded with a playoff spot. In their last five games they are 0-1-4, and 6-11 in goal difference. We should therefore not write off the home team too early, but things are starting to get urgent. The team manages to score goals, but defensively they concede too many. That is a hint as to why I think this game is interesting.

Because with a 41-30 goal difference in their 19 games, this team has delivered entertainment at a high level. There is no doubt that Brisbane can score goals regardless of opposition. Therefore, it will not be a “walkover” when they host the light blues from Melbourne.

Although the home team's scoring has been somewhat reduced recently, I wouldn't be surprised if they score at least one goal against the visitors. The last time the teams met, the match ended 2-0 in favor of the visitors, but that doesn't have to be the outcome of this match. This time, the visitors have home field advantage, and we know how important that can be for some teams.

The top scorer for the Brisbane ladies is Tameka Yallop. If she plays, they are extra dangerous in attack. So far she has scored 9 goals, and probably wants to score more if she gets the chance. Right behind in the scoring line we find; Laini Freier with 8 goals. Together they are an incredibly dangerous, and poisonous attack. The guests should watch out for them.

Melbourne City – Ready to pick up three new points

The in-form Melbourne team are ready to put the home team in their place once again. The visitors' last 19 consecutive matches have ended with points, which is quite impressive. Melbourne will probably come here to show their strong form, and to increase the difference in the table with three new points.

The visitors started the season strongly, and I quickly started to like the football they played. They stood out from the other teams by playing more controlled football, and controlled the game the way they wanted. I like to see teams that dare to have the ball at their feet, and not just shoot it out for a throw-in as soon as they get a little pressure from the opponent.

Melbourne City is a team that scores a lot and concedes relatively little. In their last five games, the team has scored two or more goals in 4/5. The visitors have actually scored as many as 14 goals in five games. When they also face a team that concedes a lot, I perk up. I was a little surprised when I saw the odds that were placed on the visitors.

Something I learned early on was to imagine what the realistic odds on a game would be, even before I checked the bookmaker. In this case, I would guess around 1.60-1.70 in odds on a win for the guests. That was not right, the odds are actually as high as 2.10, which gives me an indication that the bookmaker is not quite in tune here. This is where we can make money.

After checking the teams to see if there is any reason for the high odds, I still see no reason for the in-form visiting team to be at 2.10. That is artificially high. A bit like putting 2.00 on a Liverpool win against Southampton.

A new gold mine in the A-League

As described above, this match is incredibly exciting. A home team that is completely out of form, meets a team full of motivation to bring home three new points. The match could end goalless because Melbourne City averages relatively low away from home, or it could end in a goal show. Therefore, we drop goal bets in this one.

Over 1.5 goals to Melbourne City I would say is a very good bet at 1.77 odds, but I think marking the team that has not lost in 19 games is even a little more exciting, and has good value. Even if the home team can score a goal against the Melbourne ladies, I still don't think they can win the game against the in-form Melbourne City. I therefore end up with the following bet at very good odds;

Australia at: 09:00: Brisbane Roar W - Melbourne City W: Melbourne City W to win (2.10)