Brighton–Chelsea

 

Brighton–Chelsea

 

Brighton is in tenth place in this year's Premier League, while the Royal Blues from London are fourth. Both teams occasionally play good offensive football, but then these mistakes come, which means that they are unable to blend in with the very best. For Chelsea, the mistakes have been less this season, and if they manage to keep teams like Manchester City and Newcastle behind them, the season can end with a Champions League ticket for next season. This in itself must be considered a real upturn for Chelsea, and perhaps the start of something bigger. The qualities are there, but they sometimes lack the ability to reach their full potential. Brighton is both bird and fish this season. A full 0-7 for Nottingham, a complete humiliation, was followed by knocking Chelsea out of the FA Cup at the weekend. Things are swinging wildly on the Sunshine Coast, and most things point to an interesting matchup when these two meet for the second time in six days.

 

Brighton

The away game against Nottingham is one of the worst I have ever seen. Brighton, who are basically a solid away team, did not show up for the game at all. They were spread out all over the pitch, and the spaces that Nottingham were allowed to play in are more indicative of a local game in the lower divisions at Kløfta than a Premier League game. Brighton did not hold their positions, they were constantly too slow, and their efforts were below all criticism. How Hurzeler managed to turn this into progress against Chelsea a few days later is unknown. Whether that says anything about what is in this Brighton team, or Chelsea's own problems, is difficult to say, but all the same, this was a real upturn for the blue and white striped team.

 

Brighton are, as mentioned, in tenth place in the league, with a goal difference of 35-38. After 24 league rounds played, 1.6 goals conceded per match is simply too high. Not only that, 35 goals is also too low. The results have been mixed, and a strong draw against Arsenal, as well as a win against Manchester United, were followed by a loss to Everton, and the humiliation they received from Nottingham. Zero goals scored in these two losses. It is actually a bit of a contrast to how a typical Brighton match looks, because here we usually get goals from both sides. The 2-1 win over Chelsea in the cup thus fits better. A couple of men are missing ahead of Friday's match, and Solly March in particular would have been a welcome sight on the pitch. Brighton fans will still have to be patient. The good news is, however, that Mitoma is showing signs of form, and that Rutter has found his way to the net more frequently than before. This, along with Joao Pedro, could be a real handful for Meresca's boys.

 

Chelsea

Chelsea are fourth, with a goal difference of 47-31. Four points behind Nottingham in third, with Manchester City, Newcastle and Bournemouth close behind. Chelsea is one of those teams that you can see has potential, and that you just wait for to burst into full bloom. Perhaps there are still a few pieces of the puzzle missing, and one can speculate where this team would be with an even more poisonous striker than Jackson, and a goal-scoring winger. Palmer in a way deserves to play with the best, and there is not much missing before Chelsea can take up the fight for the really big titles.

 

This season there have been a lot of goals involved in Chelsea's matches, perhaps especially recently. The last four in the league read 2-1, 1-3, 3-1 and 2-2. These are open matches, and the matches live all the way in. The victory over West Ham in the previous round must have been particularly good, where they turned it into a victory on their own turf. The exit in the cup was probably a never-so-small sliver of joy, but the way we have seen Chelsea recently, and the way we have also seen Brighton, there is quite a lot in place for a fair opportunity to fight back in the first leg. We think we will see more of the Chelsea we have seen in recent months, and that this will be an open and fun football match.

 

Jackson is still out with injury, which should mean Nkunku, Plamer, Sancho and Neto/Madueke in the attacking positions. Nkunku in particular still has to show that he has what it takes at this level, and in addition to Sancho, these two should now pick up the gauntlet and show what they are good for. Against a sometimes shaky Brighton defense, opportunities will present themselves.

 

Conclusion

It's full of goals when Brighton play football, and equally so when Chelsea lace up their boots. We've mentioned Brighton's instability, and it's questionable whether they won't have a hard time again. The win against Chelsea a little over a week ago shows what the team is good at, so it remains to be seen whether the upturn can be copied in a league context. Chelsea score and concede in every single match, and we think they will do this again. If it ends with three points, both goal number two and three will probably have to be scored, but by all means, they are capable of it.

 

The last four head-to-head scores are 2-1 to Brighton, 4-2 to Chelsea, 2-1 to Chelsea, and 3-2 in favour of Chelsea. Statistically, this fits well with the current form of these two teams, and we are therefore close to recent history. We believe in goals from both sides, and at least three in total in the match. Marking will be for the daring, but with a slight nod in favour of the visitors.

 

England at 21:00: Brighton – Chelsea: Both teams to score + over 2.5 goals in the match (1.75)

 

Alternative game

England at 21:00: Brighton – Chelsea: Over 1.5 goals to Chelsea (1.80)