Brentford - Chelsea 13-09-25

Brentford in 2024/2025 was a fun team to watch play football. Entertaining, attacking, intense, and perhaps sometimes a bit naive. We consistently played over 2.5 goals in addition to both teams scoring when Brentford was involved, and the games were like pearls on a string. Wissa and Mbeumo ensured a goal celebration forward in the field, while the guys behind let the occasional ball slip by. 66 goals were scored correctly last season, in the same league as Arsenal, Manchester City and Newcastle. 22 goals scored more than Manchester United. They had something really going on, and it was not easy to catch up with Brentford. But then they left. The aforementioned Manchester United and Newcastle came knocking, and both Mbeumo and Wissa went home with the big clubs. In addition, the Danish Nørgaard went to Arsenal. With a snap, everything was destroyed.

Chelsea finished last season in an encouraging fourth place, and have started this season at least as positively. Even with Palmer out with an injury, the goals are coming, and Joao Pedro has settled in in record time. The Royal Blues have a strong squad, and if they keep up the pace for a while now, they will plant both feet in the title race. After all, taking budget and player numbers into account, this is where Chelsea belong.

Brentford – It must be tough to get back to the start now

Because as I said at the beginning, Brentford had something going for them. Tenth place last year, right on the heels of Bournemouth and Brighton, was promising. The entertainment value was great, and they took some nice scalps throughout the season. But then that's what these clubs live off of, the fact that they only have these stars on loan, and that a solid sale price is needed to keep things going. The joy is short-lived, and if you have a man like Mbeumo in the squad, you know that at some point he will want something more. And in a way, that's okay too. Who wants to go to a club like Brentford at the start of an exciting career if you know that the club will sit on its hind legs when a more recognized team comes on the field? You have to establish yourself as a selling club, and hope that you can reap the rewards before these talented guys want to move on. Both Mbeumo and Wissa generated ringing coins in the coffers, and now you go out and search for the next profitable projects. The problem for the fans is probably that they didn't find anything particularly interesting before the window closed again. Ouattara from Bournemouth was signed. The left winger from Burkina Faso showed signs of quality last year, but he is not a guarantee of goals. The squad is crying out for a spearhead!

And this is precisely what will be a problem. Igor Thiago is not good enough. Schade and Ouattara do not deliver like Mbeumo and Wissa, and with that it will be almost impossible to copy the 66 Premier League goals from last year. Will they manage to become a more defensively oriented team instead? It will not be easy either, and unfortunately for Brentford there is quite a lot that indicates that the tenth place from last year will be exchanged for a fight to save the place. A shame for a bright spot of a club. It will not be easy to host a high-flying Chelsea when they visit late on Saturday.

Chelsea – Can they challenge for the league title already this year?

Because if you take the eleven supposedly best and put them up against Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City, you are almost on the same level now. But maybe not quite yet? Fernandez and Caicedo in the central midfield are second to none, and Palmer in the space behind Joao Pedro is more than potent. Neto and Estêvão have the wings, and overall we get a real offensive package from Maresca this season. And not only that, because the back five are more than capable too. Perhaps Chalobah in particular shows his best side. The contributions from the Spanish Cucurella down the left side are also an ever-so-small attacking weapon. How often do you see the fair-haired Spaniard in favorable positions in the opponent's goal? No, this team can really make a splash this season.

A second place with seven points behind the first three is heard. They dismantled West Ham, beat Fulham in control, and played a rather tame 0-0 match against Palace. All in all, more than acceptable, and with an impressive goal difference that reads 7-1. The aforementioned Pedro delivers the goods at the top, and now all that is missing is Palmer in his usual drive before Chelsea can scare whoever it is. Kalde Palmer is also uncertain ahead of this one, and it is possible that Maresca will again have to rearrange things a bit at the top. It seems like he will figure it out anyway, helped by the nice points capture at the beginning. The two previous matches, against Fulham and West Ham respectively, have given an xG of 2.35 and 2.74. This shows that something is brewing with the Blues.

Conclusion – Do we bet on Chelsea goals or marking?

Because this match is likely to be won by Chelsea exactly as they want, and that is a good enough bet in itself. But let's just doodle a little bit about the most likely outcome anyway. If Chelsea wins 1-0, then marking is the trickiest. And the match could end like that, it is not impossible at all. The strong xG figures also show that Chelsea will have many good chances, and then it is suddenly just as relevant to consider over 1.5 goals to the away team. So, which of these bets is best? I honestly think that both marking and over 1.5 goals to the blues are on Saturday. Both are out at approximately equal odds, and we can therefore recommend both of them. But we will still land somewhere, and considering the home team's toothlessness, and perhaps a more defensive orientation, I choose to put my money on marking. It would be sad to miss this opportunity if Chelsea says they are satisfied with 1-0, and do not chase the second goal. However, if Chelsea find their way to the net in the first 45 minutes, I would argue that both bets will be worth it. Offensively, the home team doesn't have all the world to offer, and with the away team's solid backline, it should be a tough game.

We're going for an away win. Chelsea will thus rest their heads on the pillow as league leaders on Saturday, while Brentford will become more familiar with the relegation zone.

England at 21:00: Brentford – Chelsea: Away win (1.75)

Alternative game

England at 21:00: Brentford – Chelsea: Over 1.5 goals to Chelsea (1.73)

England at 21:00: Brentford – Chelsea: Away win + Over 1.5 goals total (2.15)

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