Brazil - Colombia 21-03-2025

Brazil, who are fifth in the CONMEBOL standings with 18 points from 12 matches, host fourth-placed Colombia, who have 19 points from 12 matches. And we think we know something the bookies don't.

Analysis of the teams

The upcoming World Cup qualifier between Brazil and Colombia is one of the most exciting matches of this round. Both teams are fighting for a place in the 2026 World Cup, and with just one point separating them in the standings, this is a crucial match.

Brazil have had a mixed qualification campaign so far, which has left them in fifth place with 18 points. They have shown weaknesses in defence and have relied on individual performances going forward. Meanwhile, Colombia have impressed with strong results, including a crucial 2-1 win over Brazil at home in Barranquilla in November 2023. Their last meeting in Brazil, during the Copa América in July 2024, ended in a 1-1 draw.

This match is of great importance for both teams. The top six teams from the South American qualifiers go directly to the World Cup, while the team in seventh place must play in a playoff. With Argentina and Uruguay in top form, Brazil and Colombia are fighting to secure a safe place.

BRAZIL – A star-studded team, without its biggest star

The biggest news in the Brazil camp is the absence of Neymar, who is out with an injury. This gives young players like Endrick (Real Madrid) and Vinícius Júnior (Real Madrid) the opportunity to take on more responsibility. Both have been in excellent form in La Liga and have shown that they can perform at the highest level, but it remains to be seen whether they can handle the pressure of a crucial match like this.

Brazil's defense has also been a concern. They conceded two goals against Colombia away and one goal at home in the 1-1 draw in the Copa América. In total, they have conceded 11 goals in 12 qualifying matches. In addition, both Danilo and Ederson are out with injuries, which could mean young players, such as goalkeeper Lucas Perri, will have to step in.

Brazil have in all likelihood called up teenager Endrick from Real Madrid as a replacement for the injured Neymar for this month's World Cup qualifiers.

Neymar, who plays for Santos, was set to make a comeback for Brazil after more than a year on the sidelines due to a knee injury he suffered late in 2023. However, the 33-year-old has been ruled out of the World Cup qualifiers against Colombia and Argentina after suffering a muscle injury.

National team manager Dorival Júnior has also called up Flamengo defender Alex Sandro as a replacement for Danilo, as well as Olympique Lyonnais goalkeeper Lucas Perri in place of Manchester City's Ederson.

Brazil's medical team has been keeping the media updated on the injury situation of key players, especially Danilo, Neymar and Ederson, in recent days.

COLOMBIA – Can they surprise with their attacking play?

Colombia have had a strong qualification campaign and are in fourth place with 19 points. They have been solid defensively and at the same time effective up front. James Rodríguez remains a key player and showed his class at the 2024 Copa América, where he was one of the tournament's best playmakers.

Under coach Néstor Gabriel Lorenzo, Colombia have often used a 4-2-3-1 formation, with a focus on solid defensive structure and quick transitions. Against Brazil, Colombia is expected to be compact defensively and exploit counterattacking opportunities, especially through players like Luis Díaz.

Experienced midfielder James Rodríguez has been a key figure for Colombia for many years, and his ability to control the game and create scoring chances will be crucial against Brazil.

Luis Díaz, currently playing for Liverpool, is another player to keep an eye on. He scored two goals against Brazil in November 2023 and has shown that he can be a match-winner in his own right. The lightning-quick winger has impressed with his pace and dribbling skills in England. His contributions on the flank could pose challenges for Brazil's defence.

Jhon Jáder Durán has also had a positive development and can become a joker in attack.

That's why we believe what few others believe

Brazil will likely try to dominate possession and use their offensive power to break down Colombia's defense. Colombia, on the other hand, are comfortable lying deep and attacking with quick counterattacks with speedy players like Díaz and Cuadrado.

A key factor will be the midfield battle, where Casemiro and Bruno Guimarães will have to find a balance between breaking up Colombia's attack and creating chances going forward. If Brazil fail to break through Colombia's solid defense, they could be punished on the counterattack.

This will be a close and physical match between two teams that know each other well. Brazil has the home advantage, but the absence of Neymar could be crucial. Colombia has a stronger defensive structure, and if they exploit Brazil's defensive uncertainties, they could take home a crucial point - or maybe even a win.

Given the major deficits at home, we believe in an open and promising match, and therefore end up with the following bets;

International match at 01:45: Brazil - Colombia: Over 2.5 goals + bts (2.90)

Alternative game;

International match at 01:45: Brazil – Colombia: X2 (2.01)