Bouzkova–Badosa

Finally, the tennis circus is back in action, and although we should keep the stakes down since the players have few matches left, we can't stay away completely.

In addition, you will see that there are many matches that have been considered but rejected. Many more than the ones you see here, but during the main analysis I have included the ones that were closest to making it to the odds list.

But now, on to today's main match;

Bouzkova–Badosa

No one forgets as easily as we bettors, they say. And they're probably right. Because don't we all have a hate list of players and teams that have cost us money? And haven't we sworn to never bet on them again? And yet we do it anyway?

Badosa is that kind of player for me. But still I find good value in odds I would have expected much lower.

Paula Badosa – can't forget 2025 fast enough

The Spaniard, who actually has more titles on hardcourt than clay, has no reason to look back on last year with joy. A long list of injuries was further extended with four new injury interruptions in 2025. Two back injuries, a hip injury and a thigh injury ruined what was supposed to be a great year for the Spaniard. The fact that she also split with her Greek tennis boyfriend, Stefanos Tsitsipas, did not make the year any better. But now she is ready to put all of this behind her.

Badosa plays aggressive baseline tennis, and is good in both defense and attack. She is very athletic, and has footwork that many envy. And if she can play tennis consistently, without new injuries, she can easily replicate 2021, where she was No. 8 in the world.

Marie Bouzkova – on the rise

Although the Czech girl already has two titles under her belt, both are from the Prague Open (2022 and 2025). A small 250 tournament on home soil. So she still has a long way to go before she can mix with the very best.

But as number 46 in the world, no one can say she can't play tennis. And her defensive style, where she keeps the ball moving long enough for her opponent to miss, has frustrated many. It's a demanding style, but she has good footwork and an impressive physique.

We find good value, even if logic dictates otherwise

The danger here is that a rusty Badosa will beat himself. In any case, it is a natural reasoning whenever a defensive player meets an aggressive player who has few games in his legs. This type of match-up often leads to many unforced errors, as the opponent is good at getting the ball back into the field. But if we look at the head-to-head match, it is 4-0 in favor of Badosa, and that tells us that the Spaniard has cracked the Czech code. And at such good odds, we choose to put our money on the following outcome;

Bouzkova – Badosa: Badosa to win (1.91)

The following were considered but rejected;

Davidovic-Fokina – Nakashima

2025 was a good year for the Spaniard. He lost some match points, which he will carry over to 2026, but he climbed to 14th place in the rankings, and that is a feat that no one can take away from him. He handles hardcourt just fine, and has an intensity in his game that may be too much for Nakashima. Also worth mentioning is that it is 2-0 in favor of the Spaniard in the head-to-head match. In fact, he has never lost a set. So one can consider;

Davidovic-Fokina – Nakashima: Davidovic-Fokina wins (1.61)

Shapovalov–Collignon

Many would have given up on Shapovalov. His talent is undeniable, but his head rarely keeps up. He has a beautiful backhand, but his game has too many mistakes. But 2025 was actually not that bad, and he played his way up to 23rd place in the rankings. Which means he will be seeded in the Australian Open. Loves hardcourt, and is probably desperate to get as many matches as possible before the first Grand Slam of the year.

Collignon is an exciting player, winning 31 of 40 matches last year. Admittedly at Challenger level, but he broke into the top 100 and is probably planning to jump further up the rankings this year.

If Shapovalov manages to keep the number of unforced errors down, he should be able to move on easily. And at decent odds, it feels good to take the chance. So for those with nerves in check, the following bets can be considered;

Shapovalov – Collignon: Shapovalov wins (1.75)

Kessler–Keys

At this time last year, Keys was the world's best player. She won both Adelaide and the Australian Open. It will be hard to replicate that feat, but she needs to be in the game if she is to have a chance to defend her title in Melbourne. So here you can play a big favorite at good odds;

Kessler – Keys: Keys to win (1.66)

Kyrgios–Kovacevic

The decisive big match of the round. But I put it down when it occurred to me that I was tempted because it was Kyrgios. And not because it was a good game. But he has got a wildcard here, and the audience will leave hanging.

He has barely played tennis in recent years, but he has a style that may not be the most difficult to maintain. Because he will make the points short with hard serves and aggressive returns, and with the home crowd behind him he can do damage. After all, he won this tournament in 2018.

But of course; Kovacevic is a good player, and against a Kyrgios who can easily lose his head, maybe it's enough to just stay on the mat? Anyway; we have to try. And even though a clean victory is the most tempting, my gut tells me that it might be wise to add a small handicap;

Kyrgios – Kovacevic: Kyrgios +2.5 games (1.70)

Sonego–Sakamoto

The lightning-fast Sonego made it all the way to the quarterfinals of the Australian Open last year, and thus started the year in the top 35 in the world. Now he has been unable to follow up on that achievement, but the Italian knows hard courts. And especially hard courts that are as fast as this one in Hong Kong.

Sakamoto has been impressive at the Challenger level in 2025, winning a tournament as recently as November. But he is 0-3 at the ATP level, and will fall short here. Especially considering Sonego needs to be in shape for the first Grand Slam of the year.

Sonego – Sakamoto: Sonego wins -1.5 games (1.62)