Borussia Dortmund - Mainz 05 - 30-03-2025

Borussia Dortmund's faint hopes of European football could be almost completely extinguished when they host Champions League-chasing Mainz 05 at Signal Iduna Park on Sunday night. BVB have had a disappointing season, while Mainz have impressed and are fighting for a place in Europe's premier club competition.

Borussia Dortmund – Still without direction under Kovac

Dortmund's season has been marked by inconsistent performances and a coaching change that has not had the desired effect. Niko Kovac, who took over after the 20th round of the league, has seen his team take six points from six games, making him the weakest BVB coach in over 15 years. In attack, the team has struggled terribly with efficiency, especially at home, where they have not scored in their last two Bundesliga games. Defensively, Dortmund have also been shabby, with 41 goals conceded in 26 games - one of the worst results in the club's recent history.

BVB will have to do without Sabitzer and Nmecha in midfield, while Anton could be deployed as a defensive midfielder alongside Gross. Brandt will probably be seen in his normal attacking role, while Bynoe-Gittens and Adeyemi will support Guirassy in attack with a (hopefully) good and creative day.

Key statistics:

• Lost 0-2 to RB Leipzig in the previous round, despite creating six big chances and generating over 3 xG.
• Has only won one of its last four Bundesliga matches (1-1-2).
• Lost seven of their last 11 league games.
• Weak home form: Only two wins in the last 11 games at Signal Iduna Park.

Mainz 05 – On the way to a historic Champions League place

Bo Henriksen has lifted Mainz to new heights this season. With an impressively organised defensive structure and efficiency in front of goal, they have cemented their position among the top four. Something that is fun to watch is Henriksen's clear style of play, where you almost constantly see a common surrounding pressure, where 3-5 Mainz players always work together - offensively and defensively. This has clearly left its mark and several teams in the Bundesliga have struggled to outsmart Mainz this season. The team has been particularly strong away from home recently, with victories over RB Leipzig, Borussia Mönchengladbach and Heidenheim. With a solid defensive base and attacking players like Burkardt in great form (15 goals this season), Mainz has strengthened its candidacy for a Champions League place.

Midfielder Kohr is suspended after his red card against Freiburg. Defender Bell is still out with injury, meaning our own Hanche-Olsen, Jenz and da Costa are likely to start in a back three. Widmer and Caci are expected to fill the wing-back roles, which have been one of Mainz's main weapons this season.

Key statistics:

• Played 2-2 against Freiburg in the previous round, despite playing with 10 men from the 43rd minute.
• Undefeated in the last six Bundesliga matches (4-2-0).
• Has won its last three away games and can match its club record with a fourth straight victory.
• Has scored at least two goals in five consecutive games.
• Second best defense in the Bundesliga with only 28 goals conceded.

Mainz is underrated by the bookmakers

Dortmund are under pressure to win, but have struggled under Kovac, especially at home. Mainz, on the other hand, are in form and have been strong both offensively and defensively. BVB's ineffectiveness in front of goal and weak defensive performances could give Mainz the opportunity to exploit space and create more chances. Mainz have simply shown sparkling play lately, so Dortmund will have to struggle here. Let's look at some betting options:

• Over 2.5 goals (1.72): We start where most betting sites and analyses start: with goals. It goes without saying that most people expect over 2.5 goals, and it is largely based on Dortmund's defensive problems. In addition, Mainz has been involved in more goal-rich matches than expected lately. If we look at pure numbers, it has actually been a bit of an opposite trend in the sense that Dortmund's last 4 out of 5 matches have gone under 5 goals. Mainz, on the other hand, has gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches. I am a bit unsure about this game here, it could easily be an even affair where we might see goals both ways or get a narrow Mainz win. Then we can always keep in mind that this match ended 3-1 in Mainz.
• X2 (2.15): We get pretty good odds for Mainz to win or draw. A clean away win is available at odds of 5, and that seems remarkably high for a solid Mainz in good form. So when we then pull it down a bit to either win or draw, to odds of 2.15, it's very good value. By all means, it's at home. Dortmund have been good this season, with a PPG of 1.85, but they have until recently lost to both Augsburg and Stuttgart at home. In that sense, Mainz is an even bigger challenge for Dortmund. This bet sits well.
• Dortmund over 5.5 corners (1.79): Dortmund are averaging 6.62 corners at home this season and have averaged 7.6 corners in their last 5 games. Mainz don't produce many corners themselves, but they do concede quite a few: away they are at 6.85 corners against. This is a pretty good bet, at good odds. Because even though Mainz are solid defensively, they have conceded quite a few corners against all kinds of opposition, in their last 5 they have averaged 5.6 corners against.
• Over 4.5 Cards (1.78): The last game we have to look at is the card game. Both of these teams have a relatively high card average. Dortmund is at 2.08 cards at home, while Mainz is at 2.31 cards away. In the previous match, 5 cards were handed out (including 1 red). This game means a lot to both teams, so things could get heated here quickly. Daniel Schlager is listed as the referee and he averages 3.67 cards per game. This is a potentially exciting game, if nothing else, a good candidate for an alternative bet.

Dortmund have not won against Mainz in their last four meetings (0-2-2), and given both teams' current form it's hard to see how they can turn the tide. It's going to be a close game, and everyone knows how the yellow wall can bring out the best in BVB. The odds on Mainz getting something here are too good to ignore. The main bet here is therefore:

Germany at 17:30: Borussia Dortmund - Mainz 05: X2