Borussia Dortmund - Borussia Monchengladbach 20-04-2025

The Borussia derby could be season-defining for both teams

The Borussia derby – one of the highlights of the year in the Bundesliga. Two teams that are quite similar in this year's league performance. And a lot is at stake when Dortmund hosts Mönchengladbach on Sunday. The match itself could be decisive in the fight for European Cup play next season, extremely important for both clubs, but with a greater expectation that it will be the case for the home team. Dortmund is coming off a hectic week with both triumph and exit in the Champions League, where they impressed against Barcelona, ​​while Gladbach is seeking revenge after a late loss against Freiburg and has a strong away record. Both teams are missing key players, and that could open the door to a match characterized by imbalance, counterattacks – and goals. Only two points separate them in the table, and with that the framework is set for a high-intensity and goal-oriented match.

Borussia Dortmund – Offensive brilliance, but defense in free fall

It has been an emotional rollercoaster for Dortmund in recent weeks. They beat Barcelona 3-1 at home in a fireworks display of a match, but were still knocked out of the Champions League after losing 0-4 in the first leg. In the league, they drew 2-2 against Bayern – a result that shows both potential and vulnerability. They took the lead against Bayern and seemed to have some form of control, before Bayern turned it around to make it 2-1. But Dortmund showed strength here and got another goal. Dortmund have now found their usual scoring form and have netted 12 times in their last five Bundesliga matches – more than in the previous eight. Yet they have not managed to keep a clean sheet since February. The defense is undoubtedly the big Achilles heel of this Dortmund team, which has been the case all season. Their home form is also not as solid as one might think: only four wins in the last eleven at Signal Iduna Park.

Schlotterbeck and Sabitzer are out, as is Emre Can. This means that Niklas Süle, Anton and Bensebaini are likely to form a newly composed back three, while Felix Nmecha and Pascal Groß take control in midfield. Guirassy – hat-trick hero against Barcelona – starts as a striker, flanked by Adeyemi and Beier. Kovac cannot afford to try new things now, here he will have to rely on players who have responded positively recently.

Key statistics:

• Haven't kept a clean sheet in 9 games
• 12 goals in the last 5 Bundesliga games – the most of any team in this period
• Two straight 3-1 wins at home, but 4 losses and 5 draws in the last eleven at Signal Iduna Park
• Dortmund's last five matches have all gone over 3.5 goals
• Can climb past Gladbach with a win, and up to a Conference-League position

Borussia Mönchengladbach: Effective on the road – but injury-prone

Gladbach's strong away record undoubtedly gives them important confidence ahead of the trip to Westphalia. With five straight away matches without a defeat – four of which have been won – they have proven to be one of the most effective teams on the road in the league. However, the previous round came with an ever-so-small setback, when Freiburg turned things around and won 2-1 after a late goal. The team struggled to create big chances in that match, and their offensive machinery has been somewhat hampered in recent weeks – only three goals in the last three matches. At the same time, they have only kept a clean sheet once in the last five.

Nicolas is out for the season, and several attacking players such as Franck Honorat, N'Goumou and Robin Hack are unavailable. Cardoso guards the goal, while Itakura and Elvedi form the defensive pairing. In midfield, Weigl and Neuhaus are expected to start, while Tim Kleindienst will lead the line offensively – possibly with support from Alassane Plea and Tomas Cvancara.

Key statistics:

• Five away games in a row without a loss – four wins and one draw
• Has found the back of the net in the last 5 Bundesliga matches
• Only one win in the last four meetings against Dortmund
• Has created few big chances in recent games, weak scoring and low xG
• Lost to Freiburg last weekend without creating a single big chance

Conclusion: This can be targeted

Everything is set for an entertaining derby with high intensity and plenty of goals. Dortmund has attacking muscles in top form, but a vulnerable and injury-hit defense. Gladbach are strong on the away field and effective in transition – and will see the opportunity to stab a shaken BVB team after a tough CL week. With both teams weakened defensively, and statistics pointing to goal-rich matches, this match has the potential to be a goal-fest. With that, we have some exciting bets to try:

• Over 3.5 goals (1.96): The bookmakers are predicting goals here, and we have to go up a bit to get good value. Over 2.5 goals is at 1.39 and BTS is at 1.57, so the combo there can also be considered of course. The combo is available at 1.72 . Dortmund has 5 games in a row with over 3.5 goals, but we of course take into account that the case for Gladbach is only over 3.5 goals in the last 1 of 5. Then we should also keep in mind that this match ended 1-1 in the fall.
• Over 1.5 goals in the 2nd half (1.61): This one is interesting. There were 3 goals after the break against Barcelona, ​​and it opened up in the same way in the match against Bayern, Barcelona away, Freiburg and Mainz. In other words: in the last 5 matches, the vast majority of goals have come in the 2nd half. Status at Gladbach? Most goals in the 2nd half in the last 2 of 5, but more goals have come in overtime in the 1st half. This autumn, both goals came in the 2nd half between these.
• Dortmund -2.5 corners (1.71): Dortmund are averaging 6.57 corners at home this season, and over 6.5 corners are available at odds of 1.91. With an attack in increasing form, it is an interesting bet, especially considering that they were given 8 corners against Barcelona. In the last 5 overall, there have been 4 corners or more for Dortmund in all matches. What might be more interesting is to jack up the odds a bit and go for a handicap. Dortmund is usually the team with the most corners and Gladbach has had the fewest corners in the last 4 of 5 matches. There have been more than 3 corners less or more in 3 of these 5 matches. Away against Dortmund, this could very quickly also be the case.

Here the BTS + goal combo can be run well. A nice high odds is also over 3.5 goals, but a corner bet is also tempting. A lot can happen in this match, a lot is at stake. In that sense, it is a bit difficult to pick a clear ´winner´ in that sense, so it goes more on gut feeling here. The uncertainty is whether Gladbach suddenly has a good defensive day, but I have a hard time seeing that. Dortmund's attack is in good flow today, and with that I think there will be more big chances produced in front of the Gladbach goal. And with that, it is thought in the direction of corners as the main bet here:

Bundesliga at 17:30 – Borussia Dortmund – Borussia Mönchengladbach: Borussia Dortmund -2.5 corners (1.71) 

Alternative games:

Bundesliga at 17:30 – Borussia Dortmund – Borussia Mönchengladbach: Over 1.5 goals in the 2nd half (1.61) PS! If you believe in Dortmund's trend, over 2.5 goals in the 2nd half can be tried at 2.90!

Bundesliga at 17:30 - Borussia Dortmund - Borussia Mönchengladbach: Guirassy scores (1.73) 

Bundesliga at 17:30 – Borussia Dortmund – Borussia Mönchengladbach: Over 3.5 goals (1.96)