Bologna - Cagliari 02-03-2025

We welcome you to Northern Italy, where Bologna host Sardinian visitors Cagliari for a clash on Sunday. It's an important match for both teams, as they both need the points; Bologna to stay at the top, and Cagliari to avoid being dragged even deeper into the relegation battle.

Bologna – can they continue to climb?

Bologna's ambitions for a second chance at European football next season were given a boost when they turned the tables on Milan in midweek. The win saw them move past Milan in the table to sixth place, now chasing Lazio, who are just three points ahead.

Despite a bitter away defeat to city rivals Parma in the renowned Derby dell'Emilia last weekend, Bologna have shown impressive form, with only two defeats in their last ten matches. They also secured a strong victory in the quarter-finals of the Coppa Italia against Atalanta.

What's fascinating about this Bologna team, which many got a taste for under Thiago Motta, is that they continue to overperform under Vincenzo Italiano! With an xG of 34.7, they have actually scored a whopping 40 goals this season.

Bologna have been particularly strong at home, and the Renato Dall'Ara Stadium has become a fortress. They are ranked as the third best home team in the league. With players like Dan Ndoye and Remo Freuler in great form, as well as top scorer Riccardo Orsolini returning from injury, the team is well placed to continue their success. Orsolini has been given a cautious start after being sidelined with a thigh injury, but has recently been given more starts off the bench.

Historically, Bologna have never lost at home to Cagliari, which gives them an added advantage. However, Thursday's tough match may have taken its toll, so good recovery will be crucial to remain competitive.

Cagliari – close at the bottom

Cagliari are in a difficult period and have only won one of their last five matches. The only victory came at home against Parma.

It's not just at the top of the table that it's even, but also at the bottom. Before this round, Cagliari was in 15th place, just four points ahead of Empoli, who are below the dreaded relegation zone. This will therefore be a match where points are very important in the survival battle.

When the team concedes an average of 0.5 more goals per game than they score, it becomes difficult to secure three points.

Robert Piccoli, on loan from Atalanta, has been a key player for Cagliari, alongside Yerry Mina. The Colombian giant is known to many from his time at Everton and the Premier League.

Cagliari have kept just three clean sheets this season. The team has an xG of 32.6 but have only scored 26 goals, which shows they struggle to convert their chances. Despite playing direct football and trying to create crossing opportunities, they lack efficiency in the final third.

However, they showed defensive strength in the previous round, where they narrowly lost 0-1 at home to Juventus, despite Juventus having an xG of 2.13. Similarly, they managed to hold off in the 0-0 away match against Atalanta. Every point they can secure going forward will be crucial in the fight for Serie A survival.

Therefore, much could indicate a victory for the home team

History has shown that Cagliari have had major problems at the Renato Dall'Ara Stadium, where they have never won. The question is whether history will repeat itself. I believe so, and so do many others – which is reflected in the odds of a home win, which are low. Therefore, I would like to suggest some alternative bets that may be worth checking out;

Italy at 15:00: Bologna - Cagliari: Bologna to win (1.55)

Alternative games;

Italy at 15:00: Bologna - Cagliari: over 9.5 corners (1.95)

Italy at 15:00: Bologna - Cagliari: Over 4.5 cards (2.43)