Bayern Munich - Werder Bremen - 26-09-2025

While Oktoberfest is in full swing in Munich, the machinery of Bayern continues its champagne football week in and week out. As is tradition, Bayern has a home game during the events and with that comes an even better atmosphere at the Allianz Arena. Werder Bremen head down to Bavaria after a very disappointing home game in which they lost 0-3 to Freiburg. Overall, Werder Bremen's season has been exactly as expected, where they are now in 14th place with 8-10 in goal difference. Expectations are always high for Bayern and they have delivered to that extent: 4 wins in 4 attempts, all with great conviction and an already dominant goal difference of +15. It will take a lot for the Bundesliga trophy not to end up in Munich again, but of course it is still early speculation. Bayern is certainly showing seriousness and this will be a very challenging match for the guys from Bremen.

Bayern Munich – Star gallery on the pitch and the bench

When Bayern can field Kimmich, Olise, Gnabry, Upamenco and Bischof on the bench AND win 4-1 against Hoffenheim, that speaks volumes. Kompany simply has a strong squad to pick and choose from. To put it in perspective: Bischof was the rising star and essential in the Hoffenheim squad when he was there, in Bayern it's all about substitutions. Bayern never ceases to impress this year. In all matches, league and cup, they have scored 2 goals or more. In fact, there have been 3 goals or more in the last 6 of the 7 matches. It's delivered backwards and it's delivered even better forwards. The tendency is naturally high pressure that opens up counterattacks, and that's where teams have scored one or the other goal. The only teams that have had an xG over 1 against Bayern this season are Stuttgart in the Supercup final and Wehen Wiesbaden in the DFB-Pokal match. Apart from that, Bayern have had few problems keeping their opponents away, while terrorising them in front of goal.

It quickly becomes a bit of a habit to look at x-number of Bayern goals and combos with a winning margin and marking. Corners are generally not too many, the trend is mostly weak there, at least if you look at the number of goals scored and corners that might have been expected then. We therefore look more at handicap bets and goal bets here, several good suggestions have been reviewed which we look at in more detail in the conclusion. Before we jump there, it is worth taking a look at injuries and suspensions. There are none of the latter, but the injury list is somewhat long. Kim is doubtful with a calf injury, Boey is also in the doubtful category, while Davies, Ito, Stanisic and Musiala are long-term injured. But as mentioned at the beginning, it actually has little effect on the match picture here – Kompany can easily pick a strong starting eleven that will be more than enough to handle for Werder Bremen.

Werder Bremen – A squad with intent but without precision

It's hard to find good bets on Werder Bremen after watching last weekend's somewhat miserable performance. They were imprecise, tried hard by all means, but it didn't work. In addition, they missed a penalty, and when Freiburg got to score, they were effective. When you get odds of 1.89 on over 0.5 goals for Werder Bremen, it certainly sounds tempting, especially when you consider that Bayern have conceded in the last 4 out of 5, but this is very reminiscent of a match in the same category as when Hamburger came to visit. Bayern had few problems with Werder Bremen the last time they visited, even though the goals were ultimately far in - 3-0 it was. In Bremen it was 5-0 in favor of Bayern. We have to go back to the 2023/24 season the last time Bremen scored and won in Bayern - but that was in a miserable season by Bayern standards - that's not the case now.

Werder Bremen was tipped by the undersigned in 12th place before the season and so far it is quite true where they are sitting in 14th place. It is a team that lacks a solid last resort and they certainly have some solid and experienced names in the squad, but the squad as a whole is too inexperienced and weak. It is also worrying that Boniface has been weak, a player who was supposed to strengthen the Werder squad at the top. Again, they have a lot of will, they work hard for each other every game, but there is no symphony in the team. We saw good examples of the will at home against Leverkusen and away against Mönchengladbach, but a winner does not win in Munich intentionally without other weapons to use. Werder is also struggling with a long injury list and has thinner quality choices on the bench, which places far greater demands on the starting eleven to really have the day here.

Conclusion – Where in Bayern's favor do we find the best value?

There are several interesting bets that offer good odds well in advance. Let's take a closer look in ascending order of odds.

• Bayern -2, three-way handicap (1.58): This is actually a very good bet at good odds. Although Bremen have scored 8 goals, 7 of them have come in 2 of the matches. Bremen averages xG 1.60 this season (league games only), while Bayern averages xG 2.88 (league games only). But Bayern are extremely effective and have goal scorer Kane in great form. Because with Werder's 8 goals, they have come 10 behind, only Mönchengladbach (who have scored 1 poor goal in 4 matches) failed to outsmart the Werder team. In terms of goals and quality, it goes without saying that there will be goals here, and most likely plenty of them. -2 handicap should be a safe bet and can also be a good bet to combine with something else on a double or triple bet.
• Bayern -2.5, Asian handicap (1.60): If you like an Asian handicap, you'll get a nice odds of -2.5 here. It's of course based on the same thing mentioned above.
• Bayern over 1.5 goalie saves (1.72): Here's a slightly fun and different twist. Werder average 6 shots on goal in their away games, in all games it's 5.5. When you dig a little deeper, Bayern had 3 goalie saves against Hoffenheim (away), 2 against Hamburger (home), 1 against Augsburg (away) and 1 against RB Leipzig (home). An upward trend like that, and Bayern are pushing forward which can naturally open up counterattacks for Werder Bremen. If nothing else, this is a quite different and fun game that can be tried here.
• Bayern over 3.5 goals (1.74): Nice bet, Bayern have won 6-0 and 5-0 in their two opening games, against strong and weak opposition. They have averaged 4 goals per game in their last 6 games. Bremen have conceded 4 against Frankfurt, 3 against Leverkusen and 3 against Freiburg – it is safe to say that Bayern are far better than all of them.
• Bayern over 1.5 goals in the 1st half (1.85): A good bet at somewhat surprisingly high odds. In their 4 league matches, Bayern have scored over 1.5 goals in 3 of them. Both home matches have produced over 2.5 goals in the 1st half. Werder Bremen have conceded over 1.5 goals in 2 of their 4 matches, one away and one at home. You can keep in mind that Bayern struggled for a long time the last time Werder Bremen visited, but it was a complete waste. Werder hardly had the ball and Bayern were pushing and pushing. They have not shown these tendencies so far this season, so this bet should really be considered.
• Bayern Munich wins and keeps a clean sheet (1.85): Bayern have kept a clean sheet in both of their home games, a whopping 6-0 against Leipzig and 5-0 against Hamburger. Neither team was even close to scoring either. Werder Bremen, on the other hand, have scored in 3 of their 4 games, but the alarm bells are ringing more after last weekend's 0-3 loss. Furthermore, Bayern won 3-0 in February and 5-0 in Bremen last fall. Then the odds here are not surprising with the starting point we have for the game. Nice bet, of course with its risks as it doesn't take more than one counterattack for everything to click. And we have seen that Bayern are not flawless at the back, if not a main bet then this is at least a good candidate for a side bet.
• Over 4.5 goals (1.98): This is mostly based on Bayern's first home games, both of which have gone over 4.5 goals. But it is also based on Bayern's first 7 games of the season: 5 of which have gone over 4.5 goals. Furthermore, Werder have 2 games with over 4.5 goals, out of a total of 5 this season. Nice odds and nice play, we have seen Werder collapse against Frankfurt and weaknesses against Leverkusen.
• Harry Kane scores at least 2 goals (2.70): The last one we have to include is Kane – the Bundesliga's undisputed number 1 striker. He scores on command and is also on penalties and occasional free kicks. He has scored 2 goals or more in 5 out of 7 games this season! 2 hat-tricks have been scored. He is no stranger to scoring against Werder either, the last 3 out of 4 internal matches have had Kane on the scoresheet, in February for example there were 2 goals. This will undoubtedly be one of the single games of the weekend.

So we have several good options here – almost a bit like Kompany's "problem": here you can pick and choose. Here there is a feeling that Bayern are doing what they have done in their other 2 league games at home, and doing what they did in February: they win comfortably and they keep a clean sheet.

Germany 20:30: Bayern Munich - Werder Bremen: Bayern Munich win and keep a clean sheet (1.85)

Alternative games:

Germany 20:30: Bayern Munich - Werder Bremen: Bayern Munich over 1.5 goals in the 1st half (1.85)

Germany 20:30: Bayern Munich – Werder Bremen: Harry Kane scores at least 2 goals (2.70)