Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund - 18-10-2025

The Classic. The definite highlight of the year in the Bundesliga and the starting point for the match could not have been better: 1st place against 2nd place. Bayern is breaking record after record, mostly their own records, while Dortmund has really found their style under Kovac. A home team that has not lost since the quarter-final loss to Inter in April and an away team whose last loss came in the quarter-final loss to Barcelona, ​​also in April (excluding the Club World Cup). What gives the match an extra element of excitement is that Bayern is producing an insane number of goal averages, but Dortmund are stingy at the back – how does Bayern solve this? We have seen Bayern dominate from start to finish in most matches this season, while Dortmund have had a tendency to play big until typically 70/80 minutes of play have passed, and then the lights have often been turned off – they cannot afford to do that against Bayern. Bayern will have to accept the favorite label here, but Dortmund will not enter Der Klassiker without biting their way. We have seen this before, both matches last season ended in a draw and the season before that the teams each won. What is somewhat typical about such matches is that they can live their own lives, regardless of form and conditions. What is guaranteed is a full Allianz Arena with a towering atmosphere!

Bayern Munich – Record after record

What underlines Bayern Munich's squad this season is the pursuit of, and achievement of, more records. If there are no individual records (Kane), then there are team records. They score a lot and they concede few. There is little to complain about and it is not about the professionalism of the team - every single team they face is taken as seriously as the other. The game plan and intensity are the same. And history suggests that Bayern will not relax anything until even more records are broken and this is definitely the season for that. They are completely dominant in the Bundesliga, no team can match the breadth and quality of Bayern's squad, so it is mostly a matter for Kompany to avoid injuries and maintain the intense spark in each individual player.

Kompany has mostly stuck to the 4-2-3-1 formation, where those he started the season with have mostly remained injury-free, the starting eleven is getting hotter and hotter. Kane has already managed to score 11 (!) goals in 6 games and the guys behind him who assist are not much worse themselves. Luis Diaz has 4 assists and 5 goals, Gnabry has 3 assists and 3 goals and Olise has 2 assists and 3 goals. The midfield works great with deep experience in Goretzka and Kimmich while the rear and somewhat newly composed line-up has found its tone. The only thing that has been a bit variable is probably the right-back position, where Boey needs to step up before players like Davies and Stanisic are released. By the way, we still have Ito on the injury list, expected back at the end of October, Guerreiro is also expected back towards the end of the month while Musiala is expected back in November/December.

Bayern also enter the match knowing that they have conceded 0 goals at the Allianz Arena in 3 matches. In these 3 matches they have scored an average of 5 goals per match. Borussia Dortmund should of course be far stronger than Werder Bremen and Hamburger, but are (on paper at least) just as strong as RB Leipzig – a team that was crushed 6-0 by Bayern in the opening match of the season. The task is a tough one for Dortmund and Bayern's best men will undoubtedly do everything in their power to continue to keep a clean sheet in order to chase another record – a record held by VfB Stuttgart's 02/03 season with 5 home matches in a row without a draw.

Borussia Dortmund – The biggest challenge of the season is on the doorstep

Borussia Dortmund have had a solid start to the season after a collapse in the season opener against St. Pauli. That match was very reminiscent of Dortmund 24/25, but they have shown much better tactics since then. What is also a bit of a letdown is that, as mentioned, they have had a tendency to reduce the pace and intensity in matches they lead towards the 70/80th minute of play. We saw this again against Juventus (4-4) and against Athletic Club. They won against the latter 4-1, but they let Athletic Club unnecessarily into the match at 2-0, before they were able to row it to shore. In the league context, they have done the job on all levels, the ghost of the away game from last season has not appeared (yet), where they have taken expected points against teams like Heidenheim and Mainz – in addition to keeping a clean sheet. They do not score more than they have to, in the last 5 league matches there have been 9 goals for and only 1 against, which came in the previous round against RB Leipzig. But the goal average is low, the last 4 out of 5 have been under 2.5 goals in total in the matches. In this respect, the exact opposite of the heroic Bayern team they face on Saturday night, where the Dortmund defense will have its biggest task this season.

Kovac is referring to his diamond formation, where the situation is in some ways the opposite of Bayern's; here the defensive line is now well set with a solid midfield, while there are some shortcomings up front. That is, top scorer Guirassy stands with 4 goals, and Adeyemi with 2, while apart from that it is evenly distributed over more or less the entire team with 1 goal each. The positive thing about that is that each individual player can contribute with goals when things fail up front. The back line of Bensebaini-Schlotterbeck-Anton has several years of experience with the Bundesliga and these matches and a lot rests on them being 100% on for 90 minutes in Saturday's match. Without a well-functioning back line at Dortmund in this match, it is difficult to see how they will solve the challenge. What could possibly be a blow for the away team is if Schlotterbeck does not get rid of his cold before the match, in which case Süle will most likely come in. Not a bad substitute, but a bit heavy and slow against quick Bayern players. Besides a questionable Schlotterbeck, Can and Duranville are also out with injuries.

While Bayern can boast 0 goals conceded in all home games this year, Dortmund can boast 0 goals conceded in at least 2 of their last 3 away games. But both of those games were against bottom teams, Heidenheim now in 18th place and Mainz in 16th place. Dortmund also showed weaknesses against RB Leipzig at home, where the game ended 1-1, and Leipzig occasionally had a good hold on Dortmund. It should not be forgotten that Bayern won 6-0 against Leipzig, a game Leipzig was completely run over. In other words, the statistics are good for Dortmund, the form curve is good, but when you look at the teams they have faced, the goal average and the statistics for the games in general, it is not more than it needs to be. With that, it is easier to support Bayern, they have faced opposition in the upper and lower half of the table in addition to being strong in the Champions League. Dortmund will probably get going, so let's see which games are tempting.

Conclusion: This speaks Bayern's way, where goals come with the deal

It's hard to ignore Bayern's dominance when it comes to finding bets on their matches. Even in Der Klassisker it's now challenging when you've seen both teams and see a pretty clear difference. But we're trying to turn over stones in every corner to see what we can find. The first natural stop is goals:

• BTS + over 2.5 goals (1.72): This one can be tempting and is based on both teams scoring in all of their last 5 league matches. For the home team, there has only been BTS in 1 of these, and 0 have been at home – that in itself is a big red flag. For BTS: yes, it is available at 1.56 alone, an odds set quite low. For Dortmund's last 5, both teams have scored in only 2 of these matches. So are the odds based on history? Last season's 2-2 and 1-1 matches? Possibly, Dortmund were incredibly weak last fall, but still scored against Bayern. But Bayern's team this year is even better than last season's, without a doubt. A perfectly good bet, but it is based on the fact that it is Der Klassisker and "anything can happen" in addition to history. Let's see further.
• Bayern Munich over 2.5 goals (1.87): This one is nice, we know that Bayern averages 5 goals per game (or more precisely, games that have ended 6-0, 5-0 and 4-0. There has been total dominance in these games and in none of the games did it look particularly critical in the end. If Bayern scores an early goal, before half an hour has passed, the air quickly runs out of Dortmund. Then the mountain suddenly becomes much steeper. Bayern has scored before half an hour in all home games. This one is simple and it is nice, because Bayern has goals in it. What speaks against it is that Dortmund has only conceded more than 2 goals in 1 game this season. But they also conceded 4 against Juventus in the Champions League. And we know that they are struggling with a slightly different ghost this season: the final sprint.
• Bayern Munich -1, 3-way hcp (1.87): Handicap betting can often give very decent odds on assumptions that are certainly not unrealistic. That Bayern can win 4-2 like in 2023 (or 4-0 like they did away that same year) is certainly possible with the assumptions and form curve for this match. Also a tempting and exciting bet.
• Over 1.5 goals in the 1st half (1.89): In 5 out of 6 matches there have been over 1.5 goals in the 1st half where Bayern have been involved. For Dortmund, the same is the case in 3 out of 6 matches. History does not necessarily support this bet, but it can be tempting as a side bet if we look at Bayern's explosive starts combined with a Dortmund defense that can get very busy, very quickly. In addition, if Schlotterbeck is missing, he will be considered towards the start of the match.
• Kane scores 2 goals or more (3.60): This one goes without saying that it must be included. Kane scoring 1 goal is available for less than BTS! We get 1.53 there. Him scoring two, on the other hand, is available for much better odds. Now it turns out that Kane has scored 2 goals or more in 4 of 6 games this season. Against Eintracht Frankfurt it could have been 2, if one goal had not been cancelled. Kane is in the form of his life, so this one must be included as a bonus if nothing else.

The pick falls in Bayern's favor. Dortmund will have a tough time here and we know that Bayern have goals in them, even if Dortmund are stingy at the back. The opposition they have been stingy against has not scared anyone this season. If Bayern get an early grip on the game then this could be a slightly different Der Klassikker. The main play will be:

Germany at 18:30: Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund: Bayern Munich over 2.5 goals (1.87)

Alternative game:

Germany at 18:30: Bayern Munich – Borussia Dortmund: Over 1.5 goals in the 1st half (1.89)