Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund 12-04-2025

On Saturday night, the stage is set for one of the highlights of the year: Der Klassiker. With only six league rounds left, this is a key match in the fight for both the title and the European places. Bayern has a six-point gap to Leverkusen and absolutely needs to keep this gap with a Leverkusen that keeps up. Both Bayern and Leverkusen have tough matches in the closing stages, so nothing will come for free. Dortmund, on the other hand, absolutely needs to have at least one point to keep up in the fight for a European place. The remaining matches for Dortmund are manageable and should give them a good chance of capturing a European place. Anything other than a European game in Dortmund will be an extremely big disappointment. All elements are in place for an entertaining match at the Allianz Arena.

Bayern Munich – An injury-hit squad with pressure on their shoulders

Bayern are coming off a series of even games. 1-1 away against Union Berlin, a 3-2 win at home against St. Pauli and 1-3 away against Augsburg. The match against Augsburg in particular was not without its challenges – Bayern were 0-1 down, and the turning point only came after Augsburg were reduced to ten men. Up until then, Augsburg had been giving them a hard time, but Bayern, as we often see, showed what they were made of. Against Union, the xG was 1.66, against St. Pauli it was a whopping 3.57 and against Augsburg it was 2.40. Even with injuries and variable form, Bayern often have enough to offer.

Kompany's men have scored 81 goals this season - 18 more than any other team - and have won 11 of their last 14 league games. However, their form has been somewhat inconsistent of late, with just one win in their last three home games. This includes a 2-0 defeat to Bochum, which turned into a 2-3 defeat, and a 1-2 defeat to Inter Milan in the Champions League.

Much of this can be attributed to the injury situation. It is gradually becoming critical. Manuel Neuer, Upamecano, Alphonso Davies and Ito are all out, in addition to creative forces such as Jamal Musiala and Kingsley Coman. This presents challenges in both defense and attack, with Jonas Urbig in goal and an improvised back line. Laimer – Dier – Kim and Stanisic are expected to form the defense again. Kane must deliver on all levels in a match like this, and much of the responsibility lies with the captain with a capital K and the waiter Kimmich here.

Key statistics for Bayern:

• Has scored 3+ goals in 8 of his last 12 league matches
• Has only lost one of its last 14 league matches (11 wins)
• 2 wins in their last 5 matches in all competitions
• Conceded 7 goals in the last 4 home games

Borussia Dortmund – Finally a small upturn under Kovac, aside from the over-planning in Barcelona

Dortmund are coming off two very impressive wins against Mainz 05 and Freiburg respectively. In the Champions League, things are a bit darker, where they were thrashed 4-0 by Barcelona. The turnaround there will be very difficult and the main focus will probably be on keeping up with Freiburg, Mönchengladbach and RB Leipzig in the fight for Europe next season. The team is in 8th place with 41 points, but it is only five points behind the Champions League places – and the positive momentum from the last two league matches will be essential to build on. Now they face an injury-hit Bayern and have every opportunity to take something from here.

Dortmund have won four of their last six Bundesliga games, and were particularly impressive offensively against Freiburg, with an xG of 3.35 and 15 shots inside the box. At the same time, their defense has been more solid than before - they have only conceded more than one goal in their last six league games. The arrows point upwards for the yellow and black.

The away statistics also give hope: Dortmund has won five of its last eight away matches, and is four games without a loss against Bayern – a strong performance in the context of "Der Klassiker".

Key statistics for Dortmund:

• Undefeated against Bayern in the last four league meetings (2 wins, 2 draws)
• Has only conceded 2+ goals once in his last 13 matches
• Five wins in their last eight away games
• Four wins in their last six Bundesliga matches

Target games are the most tempting

With an injury-hit Bayern and a Dortmund team that has everything to continue an upward trend in the league, there is a smell of goals here. In the last 3, Bayern has over 2.5 in 2 of these matches, while Dortmund has the same statistics. Neither team is solid at the back today, and there are definitely goals in both teams' attacking lines. In addition, Bayern has conceded at least 1 goal in the last 4 of 5 matches, while Dortmund has conceded in all of the last 5 matches. With that, it is most tempting to go with BTS + over 2.5 goals at good odds. We also don't forget corner bets here, because both teams average high (Bayern with 7.71 at home and Dortmund with 5.14 away). Even in the 4-0 loss to Barcelona, ​​Dortmund still got 6 corners. It is expected that Bayern will dominate possession, but Dortmund's ability to exploit transitions and create chances gives them a real chance of points here.

History still speaks in Bayern's favor, but they are currently struggling to put together consistent performances over 90 minutes. The quality of the first and second halves in Bayern can vary greatly on a daily basis. Dortmund, on the other hand, seem more and more balanced under Kovac, and they have both the confidence and league capacity to take points from Munich.

Bet suggestions

Bundesliga at 18:30 – Bayern Munich – Borussia Dortmund: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (1.75)

Alternative game:

Bundesliga at 18:30 - Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund: Dortmund over 3.5 corners (1.88)