Bayern Munich - Bayer Leverkusen 05-03-2025

We're in for a big German encounter as Bayern Munich host Bayer Leverkusen in their first ever Champions League clash. The Allianz Arena is the setting for the first of two round of 16 ties, and with two of the strongest teams in German football this season on opposite sides of the pitch, everything is set for an electric match.

This will be the fourth time the teams have met this season, and so far Leverkusen are unbeaten. Xabi Alonso's men have already knocked Bayern out of the DFB-Pokal and played a solid 0-0 draw at home in the Bundesliga last month, where they dominated. Bayern are also in good form, however, and we have two teams more than ready for another duel.

Bayern Munich - Can they take control in their own fort?

Bayern have been solid in the Bundesliga this season and sit top of the table, eight points clear of Leverkusen. Vincent Kompany's men have been in fine form of late, and Friday's 3-1 win over Stuttgart extended their unbeaten run to nine matches across all competitions.

In the Champions League, however, they have not been as dominant. They progressed from the play-off round against Celtic, but that was a long way off. After a narrow 2-1 win in Glasgow, it was a late goal from Alphonso Davies that secured a 1-1 draw and promotion at home. Kompany knows that the team must move up a few notches if they are to beat Leverkusen. But how relevant Champions League statistics are ahead of this match is more uncertain.

Bayern have a solid record at this stage of the tournament. They have lost only one of their last 11 home games in the round of 16, and they have previously delivered big wins at this level, including 7-0 against both Salzburg and Shakhtar Donetsk. With players like Harry Kane – the top scorer in the Champions League since the start of last season with 15 goals and 5 assists – they have the tools to hurt Leverkusen. They have also shown that in the domestic league, but they still have to beat Leverkusen – they have not managed to do so since 2022. And Leverkusen is only getting stronger and stronger.

Key statistics for Bayern Munich:

• Undefeated in 9 straight matches in all tournaments.
• Has won 8 of their last 9 home games.
• Only one loss in 11 home matches in the Champions League round of 16.
• Harry Kane has been involved in 20 goals in the tournament since the start of last season.

Bayer Leverkusen – Can Alonso lead the team to a historic victory?

Leverkusen have had a fantastic season under Xabi Alonso, unbeaten in their last 23 Bundesliga games. They advanced to the Champions League last 16 in sixth place in the league format and come into this match with great confidence. In many ways, they are certainly living up to last year's super season.

In recent years, the team has had an impressive record against Bayern, and Alonso remains unbeaten against the German giants as coach. The last meeting in the Bundesliga ended goalless, with Leverkusen effectively neutralising Bayern's attacking play. However, they have struggled away from home in Europe this season, losing to both Liverpool and Atlético Madrid. But again, it really depends on how tournament-specific you want to be when two teams from the same league, who know each other inside and out, meet. I lean more towards how these teams actually perform, especially against each other, in that context.

Florian Wirtz will be the key for Leverkusen in attack. The 20-year-old has already scored 6 goals in the Champions League this season and is closing in on Michael Ballack's club record for most goals scored in a European season (9). In addition, Piero Hincapié is back from suspension, which will strengthen the defensive line.

Key statistics for Bayer Leverkusen:

• Undefeated in 8 consecutive matches in all competitions.
• Unbeaten against Bayern in the last 6 head-to-head matches.
• Knocked Bayern out of the DFB-Pokal this season.

How to navigate a top match between two teams that know each other very well?

This is a match between two very strong teams and in the last three matches between them there have been 3 goals. The three matches before that we were served a total of 10 goals. I therefore find the starting point for both over/under 2.5 goals difficult, mostly because it will be a match that lives with unpredictability in the form of goal bets. I myself lean mostly towards under 2.5 goals in this match, based on what I have seen between these teams in the last 3 matches and the fact that the squads are similar. We are looking at odds of 2.11 here, which is exciting because all other analyses I have read tip over 2.5 goals in this match. However, as I have also done in the last two analyses when these have met, I would rather turn other stones to find a game with just as usable odds. Because they exist with these teams. Let's take a closer look at some current games, before the main game is presented:

• Bayern Munich over 5.5 corners (1.79) – The first bet is based mainly on the last 3 internal matches + Bayern's Bundesliga games this season. In the previous match in Leverkusen, Bayern ended up with 0 corners, but this was a match they really didn't show up for and were completely wrapped up. In the DFB-Pokal loss we got a completely different picture, here they ended up with 12 corners. And in the match last autumn they ended up with 6 corners. In other words, over 6 and 12 corners at the Allianz Arena against Leverkusen, and in a match where it is natural to expect that they will form a good starting point before the return match, corners will also come with the deal. In addition, we see Bayern with 7.17 corners on average at the Allianz Arena this year.
• Bayer Leverkusen over 3.5 corners (1.91) – The second game follows the same path as the first, and it is no coincidence. In the last 3 against Bayern, Leverkusen has 6, 4 and 1 corner. But if we are to pull the strings even further here, I would say that Leverkusen has had increasing form and dominance against Bayern this season, in the opposite order of the aforementioned corners. In the match with 1 corner, they ended with xG 0.06 and 2 shots on goal, while in the last match they ended with 6 corners and xG 2.16 with no less than 5 big chances. Last time at the Allianz Arena they ended with 4 corners, with xG 1.07 and 2 big chances – but here they also played large parts of the match with one more man. This game is more risky, because I can't imagine how Alonso will attack this match tactically. If he goes for a defensive approach, this game will quickly fail, but if he goes in to shake Bayern's ship from the start, this one could be fixed quickly. For example, they took Holstein Kiel by the scruff of the neck from the first second, and the corner kick was given after just over 20 minutes. I'm not comparing Holstein Kiel and Bayern Munich like that, but Holstein-Stadion is not an easy place to get to. Here Leverkusen showed, as they have several times before, how they can take full control from the start. This is also proven by the statistics where they score first (it has happened in 11 of 12 away games). And we saw this again last weekend against Eintracht Frankfurt - dominance from the first second. I think this is an excellent candidate for a live game anyway when it becomes clear what Alonso has instructed the team. But I am also very tempted to set this game well in advance of the match.
• Over 3.5 cards (1.85) – There will be emotions at play here between two teams who know they match each other in all areas, know each other very well and do not want to lose. But how high that level goes in the first of two games I am more unsure about. But if this game goes in clear favor of one of the teams, preferably with a few goals, then we can quickly get high temperatures. And conversely, it can be very cautious if this game goes out into the open and eyes must be directed at what must happen in Leverkusen. But let's look at statistics in combination with the potential outcome of the game – an expected intense game. In the previous game there were 5 yellow cards, the game before that 6 (incl. 1 red) and the game this fall with 5 yellow cards. Of a total of 16 cards, 9 have been handed out to Leverkusen. That means an average of 2.33 cards for Bayern in these 3 games and 3.0 for Leverkusen. And we get over 1.5 cards at 1.98 for Bayern and over 2.5 cards for Leverkusen at 2.48 . But I would prefer a bet that covers both teams here, at good odds. Betting on the teams individually can quickly become relevant as a live bet. Depending on how this match unfolds, a bet on the second leg will most likely be relevant. I also dare to say that the importance and pride of this match will add to the cards.
• Upamenco to be booked (5.40) – This high-odds bet is interesting. Upamenco has been booked in all three of his last three matches. Things can go terribly fast when Wirtz is at his best in combination with Xhaka, Grimaldo, Schick and Boniface (to name a few) – and Upamenco has felt that in all of his matches. If we see an attacking Leverkusen playing their best game, it could be a tiring night for Upamenco. There is certainly exciting value in a pure card game on the Frenchman.
• Under 2.5 goals (2.11) – I mentioned this at the beginning, and I'll keep it short. In the last 3 matches there have been 3 goals. We have seen big chances, but there are two defensively solid teams that meet. Certainly with world-class attacking lines, but here the whole line is fighting each other and I see more of a goalless match, more than the opposite. Incidentally, the bookmakers or other websites that provide analysis do not do that, so maybe I'm basing it too much on recent statistics and what I've seen in the last 3 matches, but I think there is better value in an underbet than an overbet if you choose a goal bet.

This will be an exciting match with a lot of nerves. There will be a fantastic atmosphere at the Allianz Arena and Bayern will most likely go all out to get a good start here. I have a feeling that Leverkusen will choose to go for the same, but maybe Alonso has some tactical cards in store. It will be intense with big chances both ways, I dare say. I dare not get into goal games, but the teams have shown the fight that lives in them every time they meet, and that they give everything until the last second. With lightning-fast combinations, things can quickly get heated with bad or late tackles. There are some nice alternatives, and live games, but it is card games that are closest to the heart here. We also have Michael Oliver listed as a referee, he definitely tops the list of cards dealt with 5.17 cards per match. The main game will therefore be:

Champions League at 21:00: Bayern Munich - Bayer Leverkusen: Over 3.5 cards (1.85)