Bayern Munich - Bayer Leverkusen - 01-11-2025

One of the highlights of the season is on the Bundesliga schedule, round 9. Basically, this is a top match and in recent seasons it has been an even match with a lot at stake. At the start of this season, however, we have had a completely dominant Bayern team that rolls over one opponent after another, while Leverkusen unfortunately lost far too many key players at once and have begun rebuilding the team. Ten Haag barely got that project started before Hjulmand took over and has done surprisingly well with an average of 2 points in his first 9 matches. But the task when they visit the Allianz Arena is formidable, so the game plan must be right on all levels while the margins must be on their side. For Bayern, it is just a matter of keeping the pace going, in a team where there is not a hint of fear for anyone and where belief in their own abilities is exactly where it should be – both the experienced and young talents deliver to such an extent. It also says something when the bookmakers put a home win at 1.21 and an away win at a whopping 10.50 at the very least! Regardless of the odds from the bookmakers, Bayern Munich against Bayer Leverkusen on a Saturday night is in every way absolutely perfect!

Bayern Munich – when will the first test come?

The first test has not really come yet. There was never any particular doubt against Dortmund. Frankfurt was swept aside. Chelsea fell several notches short in the Champions League and RB Leipzig were ridiculed. Now it's Leverkusen's turn, but a completely different Leverkusen team than the one that visited in the Champions League quarter-finals in March. The current Leverkusen team is still working on finding a steady rhythm and stability in a newly composed team. It's getting there, but it's still jarring. Bayern Munich, for their part, have built masterfully on last season's team and are getting the best out of everyone - if the starting eleven doesn't quite make it, then there's a very talented bench waiting to get their chance, which they have taken several times. Bayern have the perfect combo of routine and talent, where Kompany in several ways has a luxury problem when it comes to selecting the starting eleven. Hence the higher competition and you know that the 11 who started will not leave anything in the dressing room. Of the notable highlights from Bayern's start to the season, the goal machine Kane must be mentioned, some absolutely fantastic goals by Luis Diaz, not to mention Karl at only 17 years old who plays as if he has been in the Bundesliga for several seasons - what a raw talent! A player that will be very exciting to follow in the years to come.

Bayern are simply undefeated this season. The last league loss came on March 8 against Bochum, a truly strange match where Bochum somehow took all 3 points. They score on the approach and they also close well at the back. At home, the result is 4-0-0 with a 17-1 goal difference, 10 in the 1st half and 7 in the 2nd half – in other words, steadily. Dortmund had the pleasure of stopping Bayern's record chase for the number of home matches without conceding a goal. Overall, Bayern is 8-0-0 this season with a 30-4 goal difference. And this can quickly become boring, purely league-wise. A bit like the old days, where Bayern dominated so much that the season was more or less finished when the winter break hit. It could quickly go towards the same trends this season, where teams like RB Leipzig, Stuttgart and Dortmund do not have nearly the same quality in the team. However, Bayern compensate for killing the excitement in the league by playing incredibly entertaining football. Every team is taken equally seriously and the attacks are not stopped after the first goal. The excitement may die down a bit, but the entertainment is there and as of now Bayern has a 5 point gap to RB Leipzig which could be easily reduced if they don't keep it up.

Squad-wise, Bayern are at a standstill where injuries come into play. Davies, Ito and Musiala are still out. Musiala's return has now (unfortunately) been postponed to January, and we probably won't see anything from him until after the winter break. Both Davies and Ito are expected back sometime in December, but what is certain is that nothing is being rushed by the Bayern medical team. Bayern are in a strong position anyway. Kane at the top, possibly with Jackson as a partner, something we have seen lately, where we have Olise and Luis Diaz on each flank. Kimmich will probably control the midfield with Pavlovic, as long as Goretzka doesn't get the chance instead. At the back, we will have Tah and Upamenco as a stopper pair, two who have really found the tone, but Boey and Laimer each in the back position. The eternal Neuer will probably guard the cage here, if Urbig doesn't get a rare chance.

Bayer Leverkusen – it's starting to look like something, but the road to old glory is long

It must feel like ages since the unstoppable 'Neverlosen' for Leverkusen fans when they watch the current team week in and week out. Not that it's a bad team, but it's unfortunately so far from the team that spoiled them with victories like pearls on a string and raw football in the 23/24 season. The rebuilding is well underway and Hjulmand is starting to turn things around in his own way. They are starting to look better at home, where they have regained some dominance in recent games and are 3-1-1 and 9-4 in goal difference. On the road they have actually not lost yet and are 2-1-0 and 9-7 in goal difference. But, and this is a big but, it is not until now that the real test comes in the form of a top-5 team. The one big test they have had, outside of league games, came against PSG at home in the Champions League. A game they lost a whopping 2-7, nothing more needs to be said about it. After the DFB Cup match against Paderborn is over, it is assumed that Hjulmand will put all his free time into preparing for the Bayern Munich task. Otherwise, it could quickly become a sporting disaster at the Allianz Arena.

As mentioned, it has been a bit of a yo-yo for Leverkusen in recent months. It shows across the board. They can have good matches, where they show what they have, but can falter terribly in defence at times. We saw this most recently against Freiburg, where they had the margins on their side and were lucky to escape with a clean sheet. And we have seen that type of luck in several matches, sometimes deserved (like against Mainz), other times less deserved (like against St. Pauli and Werder Bremen). They have also shown great weakness against teams like Borussia Mönchengladbach, where they only managed 1-1 at home, not to mention miserable performances against PSV Eindhoven and FC Copenhagen in the Champions League. There is a lot to figure out for Hjulmand, a lot that needs to be done much better, but on the positive side there has only been one (cruel) loss to PSG. Apart from that, they have 4 straight wins in the Bundesliga, and have not lost in the Bundesliga since the opening of the series, a match Ten Haag led. These positive aspects are sure to be built on in the Leverkusen camp, so the challenge for Hjulmand is to convince each selected player that they can challenge Bayern's star gallery man-for-man.

Hjulmand is running his preferred 3-4-2-1 formation quite hard, both at home and away, no matter who the opponent is. Flekken is the one who gets the trust at the back, a man with more than enough experience, and an essential player to have ready for big matches. The back three mostly consists of Badé-Tapsoba and Quansah or Andrich. The latter has taken a right-back position in some of the recent matches, but will otherwise be found in a deeper midfield position. It is perhaps more expected that we will see Andrich there against Bayern Munich. The midfield has rotated a little more, but we almost always get Grimaldo on the left wing and Garcia in the middle. Fernandez and Arthur were completely okay against Freiburg, but they must be far more than okay against Bayern. Up front to feed the striker position we will probably get Poku and Hoffman, but here too we have seen several players try their hand this season: Maza, Ben Seghir, Tillman, Tella, Kofane and Echeverri. In recent games, Kofane has taken the top spot, ahead of a man who is often on the bench and certainly doesn't like it: Schick. There is great uncertainty about who we will see against Bayern. The injury list consists of Palacios, Tella, Tillman, Fernandez, Vázquez and Tape-Kobrissa, so it is quite possible that we will see something bad against Freiburg. Kofane has been good, but so has Schick, so there will be tough competition. In other words, there is far more grumbling in Leverkusen during the day than there is in high-flying Bayern Munich - then it is important to use the time well in the lead-up to this match, and we will see where this goes..

Conclusion: this goes Bayern's way, but to what extent?

Because there are, strictly speaking, few who think that Leverkusen will get too much from this. There is not much to suggest that, no matter how good Hjulmand would be in getting the psychological aspect to sit at the top of sporting interaction in Leverkusen. Let's look at the selection of games for the match:

• Bayern Munich lead at half-time (1.58): Bayern Munich have led at half-time in all home games. Leverkusen have not been much worse away from home, where they have led in 2/3. However, Bayern always go out hard, creating the dominance and uncertainty needed in the opponent. That they do it against the current Leverkusen team is quite good, the odds accordingly. What Leverkusen has faced is far from the quality they are facing now. A nice game that should go well.
• Both teams to score (1.60): The odds are decent here, and it is possible that it is mostly based on Leverkusen standing with BTS in 3/3 away games and 6/8 overall. Bayern Munich, on the other hand, is only 1/4 at home, but here you can perhaps keep in mind that both Borussia Dortmund and Chelsea found the net. Bayern is standing overall with 3/8 BTS, so here perhaps the odds should actually be a little higher. Can be considered, but not the favorite for this match. If you run this one, you can perhaps also consider Leverkusen over 0.5 goals at 1.55 in odds.
• Bayern Munich -1 European handicap (1.60): You get decent odds on Bayern starting with a handicap here. Bayern win + over 2.5 goals is available at 1.45 for example, you have to go up to Bayern win + over 3.5 goals to get decent odds at 1.94, and that game feels borderline. This handicap tempts, with some caution, Leverkusen has only been crushed once this season, against PSG. You can also consider -2 Asian handicap at 1.94 in odds .
• Bayern Munich over 2.5 goals (1.62): Marking is a bit of a joke to look at as a single bet, so it is natural to look at the goal bet in favor of Bayern. Bayern have scored over 2.5 goals in 3/4 league matches at home this season. They failed to do this against Dortmund, but then again Dortmund has been solid defensively this season with only 6 conceded in 8 matches. Leverkusen, on the other hand, in the previous league match away from home conceded 3 goals against Mainz 05. They also conceded 3 against Werder Bremen. It can be closed again at the back, but then there have been mostly margins on their side, combined with poor opposition. 2 clean sheets in a row at home is fine, but the last 2 away matches have come against 4. This is a bet that can sit well - in March it was 3-0 Bayern, then against a stronger Leverkusen team.
• Over 4.5 cards (2.25): The bet is mainly based on Leverkusen struggling with discipline. On the away field they average 4 yellow cards per match. Against Mainz there were a total of 9 yellow cards, against St. Pauli there were 9 yellow cards and against Werder Bremen there were 8 yellow cards, including a red card. Then we are talking about cards in total in the match, where Leverkusen was a strong contributor. Bayern are more disciplined with an average of 2.75 at home, but both teams are at the top of the cards table this season. This matchup means a lot for both teams. Then the duels are often a bit tougher and the frustration will undoubtedly show if the goals are scored.
• Over 1.5 goals to Bayern Munich in the 2nd half (1.82): Good odds are available on Bayern scoring more than 1 goal in the 2nd half. They have done so in 2/4 home matches, while Leverkusen have conceded more than 1 in 2/3 away matches.
• Bayern Munich lead at half-time and keep a clean sheet (1.90): This one is interesting. Bayern have scored 59% of their goals in the first half and have gone into half-time with a lead and zero conceded in 4/4 games. This also happened when these two met in March (then 1-0 at half-time). What creates uncertainty around this one is that Leverkusen have scored before half-time in all 3 away games, but again they now face a team of a completely different caliber.
• Bayern Munich wins both halves (2.32): We end with a small high odds, namely that Bayern wins both halves. And this is actually available at surprisingly high odds. Bayern has won both halves in 3/4 home games, of which the late one against Dortmund can be considered somewhat sluggish by Bayern. Again, the statistics speak against it, Leverkusen has not lost both halves in any of the away games so far. But when Bayern took RB Leipzig 6-0, which on paper is stronger than Leverkusen, it is not unrealistic to imagine another magical Bayern evening.

There is no shortage of exciting selections and as usual it is difficult to choose the main game, but what gives the combo the best odds and exciting games is the following:

Germany at 18:30: Bayern Munich – Bayer Leverkusen: Bayern Munich leads at half-time and keeps the score at 1.90 (1.90)

Alternative games:

Germany at 18:30: Bayern Munich - Bayer Leverkusen: Bayern Munich over 2.5 goals (1.60)

Germany at 18:30: Bayern Munich – Bayer Leverkusen: Over 1.5 goals for Bayern Munich in the 2nd half (1.82)

Germany at 18:30: Bayern Munich – Bayer Leverkusen: Bayern Munich to win both halves (2.32)

Germany at 18:30: Bayern Munich – Bayer Leverkusen: Over 4.5 goals (2.25)