Bayer Leverkusen - Werder Bremen

Bayer Leverkusen host Werder Bremen at the BayArena, and for Xabi Alonso and his team, it's all about defending their Bundesliga title. After a brutal 3-0 defeat to Bayern Munich in midweek, where they were tactically outmaneuvered and weakened by Nordi Mukiele's sending-off, they must now shake off the disappointment and focus on what is still possible to win. By all means, things can turn around when Bayern Munich visit in the second leg, but it will be a tough one. Werder Bremen, on the other hand, have had a disastrous start to 2025. The team has lost the defensive stability they showed in the autumn season, and on the road they have lost three straight games.

Bayer Leverkusen – Must fight back after Bayern blow

Leverkusen have been one of Europe's most impressive teams this season, but the defeat to Bayern showed they still have a long way to go to reach the top of the table. Alonso's decision to start without a classic striker and use six defenders to close the gap didn't work, and Bayern punished them severely. It's not the first time Alonso has done this against Bayern, but this time Kompany made a tactical inside pass on Alonso.

Now it's back to the Bundesliga, where they remain unbeaten in 22 matches (14 wins, 8 draws). Last weekend they beat Eintracht Frankfurt 4-1 away from home after an impressive first half in which they scored three goals between the 26th and 33rd minutes. Leverkusen have been extremely strong at home, going 17 straight games without a defeat at the BayArena. They have only conceded nine goals at home this season and will be ready to dominate this match.

Alonso has some injury concerns. Jeanuel Belocian is out for the rest of the season, and it is uncertain whether Robert Andrich will be able to play. We can therefore expect a midfield with Granit Xhaka and Palacios, while Tella, Wirtz and Boniface can form the attacking trio. Schick is of course also very relevant at the top with his fine goal-scoring form.

Key statistics for Leverkusen:

• Undefeated in 22 consecutive Bundesliga matches.
• Has won 14 of the last 17 home games.
• Kept a clean sheet in three of the last five matches across tournaments.

Werder Bremen – Crisis form and defensive collapse

For a long time, it seemed that Werder Bremen could build on a solid autumn season, but 2025 has been a nightmare. They have lost five games in a row in all competitions, including a humiliating 2-1 defeat to 3. Liga team Arminia Bielefeld in the DFB-Pokal. In the previous round, they lost 2-1 at home to Wolfsburg, a game in which they actually created 1.97 xG, but wasted all the big chances.

Defensively, it has been a disaster. In their last 10 games, they have conceded 26 goals – an average of 2.6 per game – with the aforementioned losses in their last three away games. The absence of Friedl and Stark further weakens them in defense, and Veljkovic, Malatini and Jung are expected to start in a back three.

The attacking game has also not worked optimally. Marvin Ducksch, the team's top scorer, is out, and the responsibility now falls on Andre Silva, who has not delivered at the top level for a long time. Midfield duo Lynen and Stage must try to balance the team, but against an aggressive Leverkusen team it could be a long day at work.

Key statistics for Werder Bremen:

• Lost five straight matches in all tournaments.
• Conceded 15 goals in the last five games.
• Only one win in their last 10 games (1-2-7).

Where can the best odds value be found in a match with a clear favorite?

When the teams met in October, Werder Bremen managed to draw 2-2 against Leverkusen. It was a strong result, but a lot has changed since then. Leverkusen have developed further to be one of the best teams in Europe this season, while Bremen have had a terrible start to 2025. Given Bremen's poor away record, it looks very difficult to take points from the BayArena this time. With that said, let's take a closer look at some betting options:

• Over 2.5 goals (1.50): It is natural to start with a goal bet, which just as naturally comes with low odds. 9 of 12 home matches for Leverkusen have ended with over 2.5 goals and 9 of 12 away matches for Werder have ended with over 2.5 goals. All of Bremen's last 5 have ended with over 2.5 goals, while 2 of 5 matches apply to Leverkusen. However, Leverkusen has faced tough opposition in this period. Here is a significantly weaker team on the other side, and the return match ended 2-2. Nice bet, perhaps in combo with some other low odds, but not as a main bet.
• Bayer Leverkusen to win and over 2.5 goals (1.75): This one is nice. Based on form, the points mentioned above and a Leverkusen hungry for revenge, this one should be fine. However, I have a kind of voodoo doll here, because every time I have tipped a selection on Leverkusen, they have managed to mess it up. This one is highly relevant as a main bet, but a few more stones need to be turned before we go in for landing.
• Leverkusen over 6.5 corners (1.61): For those who have read the German analyses lately, you can probably see the common thread: I often land on either a corner or a short game. This is simple and straightforward because it often has good value and has worked. There is no exception here: Leverkusen averages 7.92 corners at home. In the last 3 home games they have 6, 3 and 7 corners, so here it is with a little more caution that this is considered. In the autumn it ended with 5 corners for Leverkusen against Werder Bremen, a total of 8 in the game. A nice option that I will probably also go for here.
• Werder Bremen over 2.5 corners (1.72): This one is exciting, Werder Bremen are averaging 4.5 corners away from home this year. And you would think a lot of that is based on their autumn form. Not quite, in the 5-0 loss to Freiburg there were 7 corners, there were 2 corners in the 3-0 loss to Bayern and 5 corners away to Dortmund. Even though the team is in terrible form, they still have to move forward before this becomes a completely pitch-black spring. They have to be brave against Leverkusen and that could lead to some corners. The concern is when they are missing key players, like Ducksch – then this could be even tougher. It is a game with some guts in it, which is definitely on the assessment list.
• Over 9.5 corners (1.69): This also fits in nicely with two teams that produce a lot of corners. Leverkusen with their total average of 6.79 and Bremen with theirs of 4.92. In the last 3 for Leverkusen there have been 6, 8 and 16 corners, while there have been 10, 11 and 10 for Bremen. An exciting and realistic game with the starting point this match has.
• Over 9.5 shots on goal (2.02): This is exciting and is considered close to over 8.5 shots on goal (1.61). In Leverkusen's last 3 there have been a total of 7, 12 and 11 (average 10) shots on goal, while there have been 10, 4 and 11 (average 8.33) in Bremen's matches. In the autumn match we ended with 13 shots on goal. And one can imagine a match that contains a lot of ball possession by Leverkusen, a team that does not save on gunpowder with shots, and some counterattacks from Bremen. Leverkusen averages 7.0 shots on goal at home this year, Bremen averages 4.0 away. On the receiving side we see that Leverkusen is at 3.25 while Bremen is at 5.75. Here I think there is good value in what I expect will be an attacking match with speed.

Therefore, shots on goal provide a valuable play in this match

There are certainly many good bets to choose from here, so it is not that my main bet should necessarily be considered the best choice. But the combination of form, predicted match picture and statistics makes over 9.5 shots on goal at 2.02 odds very attractive. Choose over 8.5 shots on goal if you feel over 9.5 shots will be taken, there is still good value in that bet with 1.61 odds. Corners and marking + goal are also absolutely relevant. The statistics support most of it. Several bets can easily enter here, so here I recommend choosing from what is closest to the heart, but for me I choose the following as my main bet:

Germany at 15:30: Bayer Leverkusen – Werder Bremen: Over 9.5 shots on goal (2.02)