Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Dortmund 11-05-2025

Two teams in form, but with different motivations

When Bayer Leverkusen host Borussia Dortmund at the BayArena on Sunday, May 11, there will be far more at stake for the visitors than for the hosts. Leverkusen are already guaranteed a Champions League spot, while Dortmund are fighting tooth and nail to climb into the top four in the Bundesliga.

Leverkusen: Solid, but a bit idle?

After a draw away to Freiburg (2–2) last weekend, it is clear that Leverkusen cannot catch up with Bayern at the top. The team is still in a solid period: seven straight without defeat in the Bundesliga, and only one defeat in their last 15 home games in the league. There was fighting spirit in the team until the end against Freiburg, when they recovered 0-2, but the question is where the motivation lies now that the table position is set: it will be 2nd place this year and Champions League play next season. However, it was announced on Friday that Alonso will retire after the season, and maybe that is enough of a vitamin injection for the players to give him one last win at BayArena?
The injury situation may pose some challenges for Alonso. Attacking weapon Victor Boniface is uncertain, while Alejo Sarco, Martin Terrier and Jeanuel Belocian are out.

Key statistics:

• Unbeaten in the last 7 league matches

• Only 2 wins in the last 5 home games

• Kept a clean sheet in 4 of the last 11 home matches

Dortmund – winning form and Champions League focus

Dortmund won convincingly 4-0 at home to Wolfsburg in the previous round and are now on a four-game winning streak in the league. They also beat Barcelona 3-1 in the Champions League, and it is undoubtedly a different Dortmund team under Kovac than the one we saw at the start. They are just one point off fourth place and know that every game is crucial to securing Champions League football next season. And it has been an impressive turnaround from what looked like a failure of a season and 10th place a few months ago. They are a team with a tailwind offensively – they have scored in five straight games and have averaged 3 goals per game during that run. They have really found their form, indicated by a Guirassy in great form where he stands with 7 goals in the last 5 games and 19 in total this season. Nico Schlotterbeck is out with injury, and there is uncertainty about Maximilian Beier. Nevertheless, they have a wide enough squad to be effective in Leverkusen.

Key statistics:

• 4 straight wins in the Bundesliga

• Unbeaten in their last 5 matches in all competitions

• 3 last away matches have ended with "both teams to score" and over 2.5 goals

Open match, with a button on Dortmund

Previous meetings between the teams have been close and goal-driven. Eight of the last ten have ended with goals for both teams, and Dortmund are unbeaten in 14 of their last 17 away games against Leverkusen in all competitions.

With Leverkusen in a comfortable position and Dortmund with everything to play for, we can expect an open match with room for both sides. Both teams have strong attacking lines and have shown they can score goals – but it is the visitors who have the most pressure – and motivation in that sense. Let’s take a look at some possible bets:

• Both teams to score (1.45): There's no denying that this one is expected by everyone, including the bookmakers. But it's a nice start, and if nothing else, it can be used in a low-odds bet.
• Over 2.5 goals (1.50): Notched up on the odds we find the next expectation for the match, over 2.5 goals which relies heavily on Dortmund's recent form (5 out of 5 games over 2.5 goals) and their motivation heading into this match. Here they will have to give it their all from the first to the last whistle, and they know that Leverkusen are vulnerable at the back.
• Both teams to score + over 2.5 goals (1.64): The combination is nice here, and is available at a completely usable odds. It feels good and relies on good statistics, form and starting point for the match.
• Borussia Dortmund over 1.5 goals (1.84): Dortmund have scored over 1.5 goals in their last 5 out of 5 matches, including an away match against Bayern Munich and a home match against Barcelona. Leverkusen have only conceded more than 1.5 goals in their last 1 out of 5 matches, but that was also at a time when the gold was slipping away and the table situation was being determined. Motivation naturally plays a big role, and here it is clearly in Dortmund's favor. They have to go forward and they have the weapons to score both 2 and 3 goals at BayArena. The return match last fall ended in a 2-3 loss for Dortmund, in what was a very high-scoring match from the first second (4 goals within the first 20 minutes of the match).
• Guirassy scores (2.10): The statistics speak for themselves: 7 goals in the last 5, 2 goals last weekend and 19 goals in total this season. Guirassy is in great form, is listed on penalties and everything is in place for him to find the net here.
• Borussia Dortmund wins (2.40): Marking bets get surprisingly high odds, considering the match picture. The only thing Alonso has to motivate here is to win the last home game of the season. How strong it is in relation to playing for a Champions League place can be questioned.

Here it feels safe to say that you can go for both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 1.64 in odds. It should sit pretty well. It can also be mentioned that corner bets may be relevant here, as both teams average high on that front (Leverkusen with 7.38 at home and Dortmund with 5.13 away). Taking the match picture into account, corner bets for Dortmund would probably have been considered, over 4.5 corners are available at 2.02, among other things. But we feel the value lies elsewhere here. In the belief that Dortmund has a lot at stake here, wants to attack, is in brilliant form and has a fantastic scoring average, the main bet here is:

Germany at 15:30: Bayer Leverkusen – Borussia Dortmund: Borussia Dortmund over 1.5 goals (1.84) 

Alternative game:

Germany at 15:30: Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Dortmund: Borussia Dortmund win (2.40)