Bayer Leverkusen - Bayern Munich 15-02-2025

One of the highlights of the season is being played on Saturday night at the BayArena, and this match has a special meaning for the fans. The rivalry between the two Bayer clubs is not just about points, but also about prestige and pride, as Leverkusen has rarely had the opportunity to challenge Bayern so directly at the top of the table. The match, which has been unofficially nicknamed the “Bayer derby”, is a meeting between two of the Bundesliga’s most in-form teams.

Analysis of the teams

Leverkusen are currently in 2nd place, but with a full 8 points ahead of Bayern. This could be a fateful match for the home team, who need 3 points to keep their hopes of the league title alive. Bayern, on the other hand, can take a big step towards another title with a victory here. An even, intense and entertaining match is expected.

Bayer Leverkusen (home ground)

Leverkusen have had a strong season under Xabi Alonso, scoring 17 goals in their last 6 Bundesliga matches while struggling to keep a clean sheet, with just 3 clean sheets in their last 12 matches. They need a win here to keep Bayern out of sight. After 21 league rounds they have 46 points, but their performances have been somewhat more variable recently. They most recently played 0-0 away against Wolfsburg in a match where they created enough chances to win, but struggled with their efficiency in front of goal. At home at the BayArena, however, they have been solid: 10 straight home wins and undefeated on their own turf in 16 matches in total. A raw PPG of 2.36 and +14 in goal difference are currently a given. 

Leverkusen's offensive play has impressed throughout the season, with Florian Wirtz as a creative engine. In addition, Victor Boniface and Nathan Tella are dangerous in attack, and the team has scored 3 goals in 3 of their last 4 home games. Defensively, however, they have been more vulnerable recently and this affects the goal difference dramatically: Bayern Munich has a whopping +46 in goal difference while Leverkusen has +22. In other words, it is points that count here, the goal difference is very unlikely to tip in their favor if it were to end on the same score as Bayern. Leverkusen goes out for 100, we have seen that several times this season. 2.05 goals are scored before half-time and 1.57 after half-time. In 16 of 21 matches they have taken the lead, but this has only happened in 6 of 11 home games. And against a goal-hungry Bayern team, it will be crucial to close down at the back and perhaps not go out in the same style, but rather a somewhat more controlled ball-possession style that forces Bayern to press harder. With this, we can have an intense and physical battle, and with that, the cards can come quickly. Leverkusen has also had 11 cards in the last 3 games, and it is noted that there have been 11 cards in total in the 2 games they have met this season. 

Bayern Munich (away)

Bayern come to Leverkusen in great form with 5 straight wins, and they have shown impressive form offensively with 65 goals in 21 games. There has only been 1 loss this season, and it came away against the then in-form Mainz 05. This has affected the big picture to a small extent, where they stand with a PPG of 2.30 away and +18 in goal difference. But one team they are well aware that they have not yet outsmarted this season is Leverkusen. It was 1-1 at the Allianz Arena and in the cup they were eliminated by Leverkusen. This match is special for the fans, as it represents a match between two clubs with rich history, close competition especially in recent times, and a match that often delivers drama. Bayern have been fresh in the last week, where they come from 3-0 against Werder Bremen and 2-1 away against Celtic in the Champions League. Vincent Kompany has given the team momentum offensively, and with his, to say the least, impressive goal difference, they are well on their way to a triple-digit number of goals this season. The team has shown defensive weaknesses lately, however, with 11 goals conceded in the last 7 matches. It was particularly worrying with 3 late goals against Holstein Kiel, but here Kompany probably learned a somewhat valuable lesson from making the wrong substitutions at the wrong time. We saw this clearly against Werder Bremen where the tactics in terms of who and when to substitute were completely different. Werder never really threatened Bayern in that match and they kept a clean sheet. Bayern have also been disciplined all season, and have shown 4 cards in the last 3 league matches. But this match has a different starting point, and odds value will undoubtedly play an important role in that assessment. Harry Kane has been the big profile of the season with his goal-scoring flair, while Leroy Sané and Jamal Musiala contribute with speed and creativity on the wings. Bayern have also been more vulnerable away from home, with points lost in 3 of their last 7 away matches. This can give Leverkusen the belief in victory.

Our betting suggestions for the match

This is a match where everything is set for goals. Leverkusen must move forward, and Bayern are always offensive. The last 7 meetings between the teams have given over 2.5 goals in 5 of the matches. Both teams score mostly, it has happened in the last 3 of 5 matches between them. But we have seen that it has been extremely even and goalless in the last 2 matches. 1-1 in Bayern and 0-1 in the cup is the result this season. So it is with some caution that goal bets must be considered, if we only consider the last two matches. Over 2.5 goals is also available at 1.61 and gives a nice value. Both teams scoring is available at 1.52 and probably reflects more the matches we have had this season. If we combine these we get 1.82 in odds, but it is somewhat scarier, but certainly a nice alternative or live bet. It is also exciting with goalscorer bets here. The main duel is between Kane and Schick. Kane has an impressive 21 goals this season, while Schick has 14. Kane has scored 5 goals in the last 3 league matches, while Schick has 3 goals in the last 3 league matches. On Kane we get 2.10 in odds, while on Schick we get 2.75. If you want to place more bets on this match, both bets are exciting and certainly not unlikely. Kane is also a regular penalty taker and misses very rarely when it comes to that, and it could quickly become relevant in such a match we have ahead of us. Marking bets are scary here, you should rather consider it during the match. Another exciting bet is over 3.5 cards, which is available at solid 1.91 in odds. And if we take the last two matches between the teams into account, it would have gone in both times. And it is very tempting to go for value bets on cards in front of goal, considering the importance of the match. Neither team has any significant absences in the form of injuries or suspensions. Both Leverkusen and Bayern have a broad and good squad with solid coverage across the board. 

Conclusion

This is a match with high temperature and great importance for the season's title race. Leverkusen have the home field advantage and an attacking style that could cause problems for Bayern, but the visitors have proven to be a well-oiled machine this season. I believe in an entertaining match with several goals, but also an intense match with temperature. The value in short games is good here, and surpasses the value of goal games, which I place a greater uncertainty factor on. This is largely based on the last two matches between these two this season. The main game will therefore be: 

Bundesliga at 18:30: Bayer Leverkusen - Bayern Munich: Over 4.5 cards (1.80)