AZ Alkmaar - Tottenham 06-03-2025

Often, unless we are presented with a surprising team selection, it is wise to be out early. Then the chances are greater of beating the bookmakers' final odds. Because we know that the odds move quickly downwards when certain matches and games start to trend. And this is probably one of them.

Analysis of the teams

We are at the quarter-finals of this year's Europa League, and at the risk of stepping on the toes of both Bodø fans and Manchester United fans, this is the highlight of the round for me. And it's not that I'm a fan of either team, but the offensive football that both of these teams represent means that the chances of entertainment are great.

AZ Alkmaar – the era after Vangelis Pavlidis

Many of us feared that last year's great season would be difficult to replicate when top scorer Vangelis Pavlidis left for Benfica. A 4th place, just 4 points away from a place in the Champions League, was more than acceptable. But critics used Ajax's slow start as a reason to explain AZ Alkmaar's fine position. But here we are, over halfway through this season, and they have once again taken 4th place. And this time with the same number of points as Feyenoord in 3rd place, and with Ajax so much in the mix again.

So we can safely say that the home team's fans have forgotten the Greek. And that's largely thanks to Troy Parrott. And the interesting thing here is that Mr. Parrott has a past in Tottenham. However, it's been a long time since his two appearances in the Premier League back in the 19/20 season, and now he appears as a striker who is ready for the big stage.

But AZ Alkmaar are more than Parrott. They are a collective. And most importantly, they are cheated out of the nose of the Dutch football school. Matches are to be won by entertaining, and with 39 goals in 23 matches, and with a scoring average of almost 1.5 goals at home, I am no stranger to exploiting the high home odds, in one way or another.

Tottenham - last chance saloon

But of course; there is still a hint of international greatness above the name Tottenham. But everyone gets a big shadow if the light angle is right, and this year's edition of Spurs is really nothing to fear. And AZ Alkmaar probably knows that.

But it's their last chance to achieve anything this year. And perhaps Postecoglou's last chance to win anything with Tottenham ever. Because if it's a trophyless year, and a mid-table position at home in England, he probably won't have a residential address in North London by this time next year.

And with Romero, Davies, Dragusin and Van den Ven out, there's a good chance we'll see the likes of Spence, Gray and Udogie again. That shouldn't keep AZ Alkmaar's attacking players up at night. And let's remember that while Tottenham have Bournemouth just three days after this game, AZ Alkmaar have a bye until they face today's opponents again. In a week.

Our betting suggestions

Although this match is full of exciting betting suggestions, we should remember that it is the first match of a doubleheader. They tend to be a bit more calm than the second leg matches. However, we still think the following bets are worth mentioning;

Over 3.5 corners for AZ Alkmaar

Although Tottenham are probably happy with a draw here, there is something about Tottenham as a club, and the philosophy of Postecoglou, that makes me not think they will lie back and kick the ball away. That is not the football they believe in. And Ange is principled. On the border of the idiotic.

And even though Tottenham produce the most corners of any team in the Premier League, with 7.48, there are several reasons to drop over 8.5 corners to 1.58, and instead go for a corner play for the home team. And although I don't think it's particularly likely, Tottenham could be happy with a draw, and thus hold back a bit. And in that way not contribute significantly to the total.

In addition, there is a certain chance that I have missed the strength ratio between the teams. And if Tottenham is that much better than AZ Alkmaar, then it is the home team that may be chasing. And as long as it is a draw, it is also the home team that must chase. They naturally do not want to take a loss with them to London.

And we should remember that regardless of the result and opposition, AZ Alkmaar have produced an average of 5.4 corners at home in this year's Europa League. They are distributed as follows;

• Elfsborg (7)
• Fenerbahce (4)
• Galatasaray (3)
• Rome (6)
• Galatasaray (7)

And one last thing; Tottenham concedes 5.56 corners on average in the Premier League, so here AZ Alkmaar can easily match their domestic average of 5.78 corners per game. Especially considering the defense Tottenham may have to start. And perhaps especially considering that both Porro and Udogie are players who love to join the attack, thus leaving space behind.

Other betting suggestions

When you hear teams like AZ Alkmaar and Tottenham you think goals. At least I do. And if you're early you can still get over 2.5 goals at 1.60. In isolation it's a very nice bet, and it will probably drop over the course of the week. But as long as this is the first game in a doubleheader, I'll leave it alone.

Otherwise, I think it's interesting to look at the number of offsides. The home team only goes offside 1.3 times per game, on average, but at home in the Eredivisie they mostly play against teams that are low. Who are inferior. But if Postecoglous continues with his high line against a team that has to attack and who likes to be direct, then this could be an alternative bet. But unfortunately no bookmakers have come out with odds on this type of bet at the time of writing.

Finally, one must mention 1X. Because the strength ratio should not be serious. Especially not now that there are only 16 teams left. And with the season Tottenham has had, I think 1.76 is playable. But we don't know the lineups, and we are not completely sure about the strength ratio, this is not where we should end up.

However, we end up with the corners we mentioned above here. And then we cross our fingers that both teams are on the statistics they have been on so far this year,. And if the home team goes to secure the first point, then the following bets should be in place;

Europa League at 18:45: AZ Alkmaar - Tottenham: Over 3.5 corners to AZ Alkmaar (1.65)