Australia - Japan 05-06-2025

With two rounds to go, the battle is still on for the final spot that will give direct qualification for next year's World Cup. And we have a clear idea of ​​who will join Japan when it all kicks off next summer.

Analysis of the teams

Here, two teams meet with vastly different starting points. While the home team is painfully dependent on points, the away team has already secured their World Cup ticket. And as we will see a little later in the analysis, this is reflected in the team selection.

But journalists in Australia have also used war stories in the newspapers to hype up what they call a wounded crew. But is Australia really that reduced?

Australia – with life at stake

The situation is like this; two teams go straight to the World Cup, and at the time of writing Australia holds the important 2nd place. Three points ahead of Saudi Arabia, with a nine-goal better goal difference. Initially, it looks bright, two rounds before the end, but the challenge is that Australia will now face Japan, before they play Saudi Arabia in the last match. So a win here will almost guarantee them promotion. And the last thing they want is to have to go to Riyadh to bring home points.

And yes, Harry Souttar is missing, but debutant Kai Trewin has had a brilliant season at Melbourne City, after joining from Brisbane Roar, and could well fill his shoes. And Matthew Leckie can also be replaced. He was good in the Grand Final last weekend, but as injury-plagued as he has been in recent years, we didn't really count on him in the first place. And with Metcalfe and McGree back in, along with creative players like Toure, Tilio and Arzani, Australia should be well-protected going forward.

But the only dropout that I think is dramatic is Jackson Irvine. But here too Tony Popovic has exciting alternatives. Max Ballard is mentioned, which I don't think is a very good idea, and the same must be said about the old Viking player Yazbek. Then I hope Popovic dares to give Ryan Teague confidence from the start. He has had a brilliant season in central midfield for Melbourne Victory, and is an excellent box-to-box player who can quickly stand out in this match.

It should also be mentioned that the training camp in Abu Dhabi has received a lot of attention. This stay is being highlighted by several people, and Popovic used much of the press conference to talk about the importance of being able to gather so much time in advance. For this stay, he gave the opportunity to bring in players he was unsure about, such as Metcalfe, McGree and the youngster Alessandro Circati, who currently plays for Parma. All three have been injured, and probably would not have been included if Popovic had not had the opportunity to see them in action during these 10 days in Abu Dhabi. And all three passed the medical check.

Finally, it should be mentioned that the match is being played in Perth. Adam Taggart's home ground. Do we smell a goalscoring game on the aging goal machine?

Japan – the job is done

In this year's qualification, Japan has been in a class of its own. 6-2-0 and only two goals conceded in 8 matches is impressive. And with two rounds to go, no one can take away their 1st place. But that also means they have nothing to play for here. Something we also see in the roster of The Samurai Blue.

Moriyasu has found room for seven debutants this time, in addition to several players who play in the J-League on a daily basis. Endo is in, and so is Kubo, but it is clear that the team that runs out onto the pitch on Thursday will deviate greatly from the team that secured a point, and advancement, against Saudi Arabia last time. In that match, there was only one player in the starting lineup who plays in the J-League on a daily basis, Takai from Kawasaki Frontale. On Thursday, we believe in far more.

And if we are right, that Japan is very reduced, one can perhaps not emphasize the results so far in the qualification significantly. But 24-2 in eight games is impressive. But will a newly composed team suffer from a lack of interaction? Or is the defensive foundation in the blood? We do not know, and therefore we adjust our goal game down to an alternative game, and land on what we believe is a safer variant as the main game.

Conclusion – Australia secures World Cup ticket on home soil

Because there is nothing to suggest that this will be a goal fest, no matter which team Japan fields. Because they are solid at the back, in addition to Australia needing points. Not necessarily many goals. And as we know Tony Popovic, from his time at Melbourne Victory, he is a pragmatic coach who often chooses the safe over the spectacular.

And although they would ideally like to have all three points, they can live with one point. Then they will secure advancement with a draw in Riyadh in the last round. And they also managed one point when they visited Saitama Stadium back in October, 2024. And back then the group was wide open, and Japan was chasing points. They don't need that now.

Motivation is a strong factor in football. And here the home team has an enormous motivation to get something, as a loss could mean that the World Cup must be played without Australian participation. When we also know that the away team has finished playing, and may be playing with a reduced squad, it feels safe to land on the following bets;

World Cup qualification at 13:10: Australia – Japan: Australia wins – draw no bet (1.88)

Alternative game;

Although Japan have an impressive defensive record, and have not conceded two goals in a match since February last year, we have to try. The home team could easily be lifted by their own team in Perth, and with Arzani, Borello, Toure, Taggart and Tilio there should be no shortage of speed, technique and creativity going forward. So then a little side game on the following variation;

World Cup qualification at 13:10: Australia – Japan: Over 1.5 goals to Australia (2.80)