Atletico Madrid – Arsenal

Atletico Madrid vs. Arsenal. Simeone vs. Arteta. Sørloth vs. Ødegaard. Yes, from a neutral football perspective, these should be two exciting matches. The first thought is that PSG vs. Bayern is the semi-final that smells like gunpowder. Two entertaining and attacking teams will fight for one final spot. Whoever it is, you will face a tactically and defensively oriented solid football team in the final. It could easily turn out to be Atletico who is waiting, but it could just as easily be Arsenal. The latter has a lot to prove in these last weeks of the season, because it is undeniable that Arteta will soon have to start winning something worth mentioning. The match will probably be close and even, and it will surprise no one if the match in Spain will be a tactical battle where no one wants to end up behind. Both can live with a draw, and the guests in particular will probably hope to be able to go home to London knowing that they will secure promotion with a controlled victory on their own turf. But these are the semi-finals of the Champions League – anything can happen.

Atletico Madrid – A disappointing league season

Because this is not enough for the team that should be the main challenger to the two big ones in Spain. 25 points behind the leading Barcelona is not possible. It is simply too weak. The losses have come close, and especially recently it has looked tired. Then the world's biggest club tournament has been a different story. Atletico is on the threshold of a final, and that would of course save the whole season, and more, if they were to overcome the last obstacle as well. The ring fox on the sidelines probably sense the possibilities now, because Arsenal does not look as solid as it was just a couple of months ago.

In this year's edition of the Champions League, they have faced both relatively easy opposition and relatively tough opposition. Tottenham was no match, and they made it through after a goal bonanza. Then Barcelona themselves stood in the second half, but here too they proved to be the strongest. The 2-0 win in Barcelona was decisive, and even though the Catalans won in Madrid, they managed. Atletico will now face Arsenal for a place in the final, and it will be extremely exciting to see how they approach the task!

Who is the real favorite to advance here? Arsenal probably has the odds slightly in their favor, but there is not much that separates the teams. And what perhaps makes this extra interesting is the fact that both of these teams, and their managers, have a roughly similar football philosophy. Attack finds matches, defense wins trophies. Now, you can't directly bask in the glory of this philosophy, and whoever should make it to the final will probably have to live with being an underdog, but the possibilities for triumph are present for both duelists.

The home team in the first leg is virtually unaffected by injuries. Happily, Ademola Lookman is in training ahead of Wednesday's match, and will be a useful string to play on in the attack against clever Arsenal defenders. Beyond this, Simeone can almost pick and choose among the rubble and pieces, and with that the conditions are well in place for a match-ready hosts.

Arsenal – The season stands and falls on these final games

Because Arsenal can win both the Champions League and the Premier League. Why wouldn't they? They have a rock-solid season going on, and have kept Manchester City at arm's length so far. In Europe, they have reached the semi-finals, and for a team that has never won the Champions League, they are close to the big thing. If they can outcompete the Spaniards, anything can happen. Arteta will be measuring intellect against one of the biggest tricksters in the business, which only gives the matchup even more weight.

The team has lost some of its edge lately. It may be ugly to say it, but this has become typical of Arsenal. You mess it up towards the end, and come away empty-handed. Seasons like this, if they end with nothing, can kill any project. The hope is of course that this season is different, and that you can thus kill a tenacious myth. Arsenal have the qualities needed, and there must be a certain belief in the player group that they can handle the heat. The fact that Newcastle was beaten at the weekend was probably exactly what was needed to go into this match with their heads held high. Nothing is lost, and anything is possible.

Arsenal hosted Atletico last fall, and made short work of it. The Londoners were at their best, running over the guys from Madrid, and didn't give up until it was 4-0. Of course, this match will be highlighted in the preparations, because it shows that they have what it takes. 1-0 came early in the second half, before killing all hope with three quick goals in 6-7 minutes. We assume that this at least ensures that Arsenal feel that this can both be turned around and pulled off in the return match next week. It doesn't have to be sorted out tomorrow.

This approach is perfect for Arteta. Arsenal are good defensively, Gabriel is huge, and the set-piece threats are many. If Arsenal manage to park the bus, be tight and compact in the middle, and make the most of the set pieces they get, then this will suddenly end up being a match poor in goals. That would have been a perfect scenario for the English. What is certain is that you don't go to Spain to exchange blows, and stand tall man to man. Arteta is true to himself, and that's exactly what the Gunners can do.

Conclusion – The first match is just the first half

Of course, that applies to all these matches. But maybe a little extra here? I think the visitors have a clear two-step plan towards kick-off, where they defend themselves in turn, and attack on their own turf. Atletico necessarily think the opposite, but they also benefit from being able to go to London with everything to play for. It would be risky to end up behind on their own turf early, and therefore I assume we will see two waiting teams with a lot of play around the midfield. In theory, this leads to few finishes, few corners, and few goals. It may sound boring on paper, but the tactical approach from the two managers is a study in style in itself.

Arsenal, now with Ødegaard back in the starting line-up, will keep the ball in their team a lot. We have seen it before too, especially the Norwegian often turns home, and plays a safe supporting pass rather than potentially losing the ball in a dangerous area. There are fewer balls in the back, and there are fewer links between Ødegaard and Saka. Both of these have been injured a lot this season, and what was perhaps Arsenal's most dangerous attacking weapon has disappeared with these interruptions. Possession of the ball gives security, and that security ensures that the clock runs.

The home team will naturally try to go to the ball island with a lead. As mentioned above, it is dangerous to set this up too early in the match, as the opponent quickly counters. In a match between PSG and Bayern, this is not as dangerous, because here the goals are loose for both teams. To end up losing in such a battle can be very temporary, while in our match the feeling is that 1-0 could potentially be enough. The analysis is therefore that it will be goalless in Madrid, and that the match will first open in London. Who is preparing for the last match with an advantage is difficult to predict. Perhaps the probability that it will be the status quo when the referee blows the whistle at the Emirates is greatest.

Europe at 21:00: Atletico Madrid - Arsenal: Under 2.5 goals (1.70)

Alternative game
Europe at 21:00: Atletico Madrid – Arsenal: Draw (3.10)