Aston Villa – Newcastle 16-08-25

We will have a real match already in the first round at Villa Park this season. Last year's number six will host fifth-placed Newcastle. Both teams ended the season with 66 points, and there was thus little that separated the teams. The match between these two in the spring, on the same pitch, ended with a whopping 4-1 to the home team. It would be surprising if we get such figures already in the first match, but indicators that this could end with a home win are certainly present. Because, there is not exactly harmony up north these days. Most of it is about Alexander Isak, and not with a positive sign. The Swede is causing so much chaos now that it must be difficult to focus on the start of the league. The lack of signings does not help either. In Birmingham, however, the atmosphere is better. The summer has been good for Aston Villa, and the team has recorded several good results. Led by a sharp Ollie Watkins, Newcastle could have a tough time on Saturday.

Aston Villa – About to really establish themselves

It will be an important season for the burgundy reds. The sixth place in the last edition of the Premier League was solid, but there are opportunities for another place up the table. The team is well-coordinated, perhaps lacking a few new faces, but the core of the team remains strong. Villa is a terribly difficult team to break down at home, and therein lies much of the key to a solid season. These home games against their closest rivals must be won easily and simply.

The club's finances still suggest a sale or two. The man who seems set to leave Villa Park is Jacob Ramsey, and fittingly Newcastle seem to be his next destination. The move won't come in time for him to play his first game for his new club against old friends, however. Losing Ramsey is not ideal for Emery, but if that's what it takes to keep going, with the biggest names still on the payroll, then it's not the end of the world either.

Villa have played several good games this summer. Roma have been beaten 4-0, while the dress rehearsal against Villarreal a week ago showed that the team is on the move with a nice 2-0 win. Several nice goals, and a tight defense. Exactly what a manager wants to see before it all falls apart. There are no notable absences to worry about either, so most things should be ready for the start of the league in England's second largest city.

Newcastle – The great team that isn't a great team

Because there is something a little strange about Newcastle. The world's richest club owner, and with the Champions League in the fall. But still, no one wants to go to Newcastle. And even more worrying, Isak is on strike to leave the club. This is the situation close to the start of the season for a club that wants to be mentioned in the same breath as Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City. There is something that is not right.

And what exactly that is is unknown. Last year's fifth place, just three points behind fourth-placed Chelsea, was an uplifting gesture. Led by a Swedish super striker, Newcastle was a place you didn't want to visit. Too much was about the team's spearhead. Together with Gordon, it was not easy for the visiting defense to contain them, and Isak's 23 league goals showed what was in him. He is simply one of the sharpest goalscorers to be found, something he is probably very aware of himself. The situation today is that it is only Liverpool that he wants to play for, and after broken promises internally at the club, he has thus come out and said that he will never play for the black and whites again. Unfortunately, an attitude we have seen several times in recent years. Overpaid players who become defiant, and almost force through transfers, no matter how long contracts they have recently signed. Newcastle have started to move around in the transfer market over the past week, and it is questionable whether it is not the Isak money that is now being wasted. If they have made a deal with Liverpool in secret, then several new faces could come through the gates, before Isak sneaks out the back way. That now seems to be the only solution.

So what does this mean for Newcastle? In the short term, they will be a worse football team. Isak is simply so good, and the team is so geared towards his qualities, that this will take time to correct. However, if you end up with three, maybe four, new players, the team as a whole could experience a boost. But then you have to find what you are doing, and the new attacking players have to work together with the rest. Both Jackson at Chelsea and Ramos at PSG are rumored to be in.

Overall, the start of the league season seems like a Christmas Eve for Newcastle. Villa Park may not be the place you want to go if things aren't going your way.

Conclusion – A football team against eleven men

It feels a bit like that for those of us who follow this circus from the sidelines. Things don't seem to be going as they should for the visitors, while the home team seems to be on track. The question is how much we should emphasize the whole thing. The fact is at least that Alexander Isak will not play. He has not been involved in either training matches or the summer tour, so we'll leave that one for dead. What alternatives does Howe have at the top? Gordon? Barnes? No matter who he chooses, there is no classic number 9. The two mentioned are capable footballers, but they are not strikers. They are not guarantors of stable performances either. The bright spot is the signing of Elanga. He delivered a very impressive season last year, and if we can also sign Ramsey, along with a couple of decent striker names, this could be good. The only problem is that this match comes so much too early.

Villa are and will remain favourites on their home turf. We have difficulty seeing that they should not dictate most of what happens in Birmingham this Saturday, and we also feel that they should take advantage of the chaos that prevails among their rivals. Because if they are to get a good start, and perhaps a few points away from a team that snuck ahead on goal difference last year, now is the time.

We predict a match where the ball is in the home team's court, and where Watkins once again shows his qualities. Completely writing off the away team can be dangerous, but we still feel that we have found a couple of variations that can give bets into the first round of the series. This will be an exciting match to follow from the armchair, between two teams on different planets at the moment.

England at 1:30 PM: Aston Villa – Newcastle: Over 1.5 goals for the home team (1.90)

Alternative game

England at 1:30 PM: Aston Villa – Newcastle: Home win (2.20)